World Population Prospects 2024
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United States, New York
United Nations

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World Population Prospects 2024

The 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-eighth edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 3,189 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2024 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels. The main results are presented in a series of Excel files displaying key demographic indicators for each UN development group, World Bank income group, geographic region, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) region, subregion and country or area for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. An online database (Data Portal) provides access to a subset of key indicators and interactive data visualization, including an open API for programmatic access. Since the 2022 revision, the estimates and projections are presented in one-year intervals of age and time instead of the five-year intervals used previously.

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Gap between national food production and food-based dietary guidance highlights lack of national self-sufficiency

Jonas StehlAlexander VonderschmidtSebastian VollmerPeter AlexanderLindsay M. Jaacks
Nature Food
2025
2025/5/16
00 p.1-6
In light of nationalist trends, disruptions to global food supply chains and efforts to concurrently promote sustainable diets, we assess national capacities to achieve dietary guidelines based on domestic production alone. Over a third of all countries cannot meet self-sufficiency for more than two...
EconomicsEnvironmental studiesSustainability
10.1038/S43016-025-01173-4
ISSN:2662-1355

Adopting yield-improving practices to meet maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa without cropland expansion

Fernando Aramburu-MerlosFatima A. M. TenorioNester MashingaidzeAlex SanankaStephen Aston7
Nature Communications
2024
2024/5/27
Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase 2.3 times during the next 30 years driven by demographic and dietary changes. Over the past two decades, the area cropped with maize has expanded by 17 million hectares in the region, with limited yield increase. Following this trend could p...
AgroecologyTropical ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-48859-0
ISSN:2041-1723

Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis

Nicolas A. MenziesBrian W. AllwoodAnna S. DeanPete J. DoddRein M. G. J. Houben13
Nature Communications
2023
2023/10/4
Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
In 2020, almost half a million individuals developed rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB). We estimated the global burden of RR-TB over the lifetime of affected individuals. We synthesized data on incidence, case detection, and treatment outcomes in 192 countries (99.99% of global tuberculosis)...
Developing worldEpidemiologyStatistical methodsTuberculosis
10.1038/S41467-023-41937-9
ISSN:2041-1723

Underlying rules of evolutionary urban systems in Africa

Gang XuMengyan ZhuBin ChenMuhammad SalemZhibang Xu11
Nature Cities
2025
2025/2/18
00 p.1-9
Africa is set to drive future global urbanization, yet the evolution of its urban systems remains underexplored. Here we show this evolution during 1950–2020 using three urban system rules based on a unified urban definition across the African continent. Zipf’s law quantified increasing population c...
Development studiesGeography
10.1038/S44284-025-00208-Y
ISSN:2731-9997

Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl

Yuan ShenStuart Alexander M.Laborte Alice G.Rattalino Edreira Juan I.Dobermann Achim22
Nature Food
2022
2022/3/24
Vol.3 No.3 p.217-226
Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a lar...
EcophysiologyTropical ecology
10.1038/S43016-022-00477-Z
ISSN:2662-1355

Global and regional estimates of orphans attributed to maternal cancer mortality in 2020

Guida FlorenceKidman RachelFerlay JacquesSchüz JoachimSoerjomataram Isabelle17
Nature Medicine
2022
2022/11/20
Vol.28 No.12 p.2563-2572
Despite women being disproportionally affected by cancer deaths at young ages, there are no global estimates of the resulting maternal orphans, who experience health and education disadvantages throughout their lives. We estimated the number of children who became maternal orphans in 2020 due to the...
CancerSocial sciences
10.1038/S41591-022-02109-2
ISSN:1078-8956

Liver diseases and hepatocellular carcinoma in the Asia-Pacific region: burden, trends, challenges and future directions

Lung-Yi MakKen LiuSakkarin ChirapongsathornKuo Chao YewNobuharu Tamaki15
Nature Reviews Gastroenterology & Hepatology
2024
2024/8/15
00 p.1-18
Globally, nearly half of deaths from cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases (CLD) and three-quarters of deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occur in the Asia-Pacific region. Chronic hepatitis B is responsible for the vast majority of liver-related deaths in the region. Metabolic dysfunction-ass...
Hepatocellular carcinomaLiver cirrhosis
10.1038/S41575-024-00967-4
ISSN:1759-5045

The economic value of reducing mortality due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries

Stéphane VerguetSarah BolongaitaAngela Y. ChangDiego S. CardosoGretchen A. Stevens
Nature Medicine
2024
2024/9/27
00 p.1-10
With population aging, national health systems face difficult trade-offs in allocating resources. The World Bank launched the Healthy Longevity Initiative to generate evidence for investing in policies that can improve healthy longevity and human capital. As part of this initiative, we quantified th...
Health careHealth care economics
10.1038/S41591-024-03248-4
ISSN:1078-8956

Effect of climate-driven childhood sleep erosion on potential regional economic inequality

Bowen ChuXiang LiuYijing ZhuJianfeng LuoLan Luo11
Nature Sustainability
2026
2026/3/13
00 p.1-10
Climate change is likely to increase human exposure to high temperatures, leading to sleep loss. Reduced sleep duration may impair intellectual and cognitive performance, including in childhood, with potential socioeconomic impacts. Here we explore the potential global and regional economic costs of...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41893-026-01779-X
ISSN:2398-9629

Associations between national plant-based vs animal-based protein supplies and age-specific mortality in human populations

Caitlin J. AndrewsDavid RaubenheimerStephen J. SimpsonAlistair M. Senior
Nature Communications
2025
2025/4/11
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Transitions to sustainable food systems require shifts in food production and availability, particularly the replacement of animal-based protein with plant-based protein. To explore how this transition may relate to demographic patterns, we undertake an ecological analysis of global associations bet...
AgricultureData processingEnvironmental impactEpidemiologyNutrition
10.1038/S41467-025-58475-1
ISSN:2041-1723

A hidden demethylation pathway removes mercury from rice plants and mitigates mercury flux to food chains

Wenli TangXu BaiYang ZhouChristian SonneMengjie Wu32
Nature Food
2024
2024/1/4
00 p.1-11
Dietary exposure to methylmercury (MeHg) causes irreversible damage to human cognition and is mitigated by photolysis and microbial demethylation of MeHg. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) has been identified as a major dietary source of MeHg. However, it remains unknown what drives the process within plants f...
Element cyclesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S43016-023-00910-X
ISSN:2662-1355

Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic

Olivera Mesa DanielaHogan Alexandra B.Watson Oliver J.Charles Giovanni D.Hauck Katharina7
Communications Medicine
2022
2022/2/10
Vol.2 No.1 p.1-8
Vaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study, we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We modell...
Infectious diseasesVaccines
10.1038/S43856-022-00075-X
ISSN:2730-664X

Avoiding overestimates of climate risks from population ageing

Simon J. LloydErich StriessnigRaya MuttarakSamir KCJoan Ballester
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/4/13
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-6
Population ageing is expected to lead to significant rises in climate risks because vulnerability rises sharply throughout people’s later years. When assessing the vulnerability of older people, however, what’s important isn’t the number of years someone has lived (i.e. “chronological age”) but rath...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00641-1
ISSN:2397-3722

Mandatory large-scale food fortification programmes can reduce the estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by up to 50% globally

K. Ryan WessellsMari S. MangerBecky L. TsangKenneth H. BrownChristine M. McDonald
Nature Food
2024
2024/6/19
00 p.1-13
Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) can increase dietary micronutrient intake and improve micronutrient status. Here we used food balance sheet data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to estimate current country-specific prevalences of inadequate zinc intake. We asses...
Developing worldMalnutrition
10.1038/S43016-024-00997-W
ISSN:2662-1355

Economic disparity among generations under the Paris Agreement

Yang HaozheSuh Sangwon
Nature Communications
2021
2021/10/5
Vol.12 No.1 p.1-7
The costs and benefits of climate change mitigation are known to be distributed unevenly across time and space, while their intergenerational distribution across nations has not been evaluated. Here, we analyze the lifetime costs and benefits of climate change mitigation by age cohorts across countr...
Climate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-25520-8
ISSN:2041-1723

Burdens of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages in 184 countries

Laura Lara-CastorMeghan O’HearnFrederick CudheaVictoria MillerPeilin Shi11
Nature Medicine
2025
2025/1/6
00 p.1-13
The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, an updated and comprehensive assessment of the global burden attributable to SSBs remains scarce. Here we estimated SSB-attributable T2D and CVD burdens across 184...
EpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S41591-024-03345-4
ISSN:1078-8956

Reclassifying lethal heat

Robert Edwin RouseRamit DebnathDavid Andrew RouseWill TebbuttBénédicte Dousset9
Nature Communications
2026
2026/4/3
0
As heatwaves increase in both frequency and intensity globally, the need to develop tools to predict the human impact and develop a more comprehensive understanding of the impact mechanism at a population level is becoming more urgent. Our study provides a taxonomy of heatwaves based on identifying ...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactGeographyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-026-71396-X
ISSN:2041-1723

Integrating parallel Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria models in a unified framework to capture co-endemic prevalence patterns

Richard J. SheppardGiovanni D. CharlesConstanze CiavarellaNora SchmitShazia N. Ruybal-Pesántez9
Communications Health
2026
2026/7/7
Vol.1 No.1 p.110
Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax cause most malaria cases worldwide and are co-endemic in many countries, yet differ substantially in biology and in their responses to common interventions. As programmes drive down P. falciparum, P. vivax is a growing challenge for elimination, but most mo...
DiseasesEcologyMicrobiology
10.1038/S44528-026-00007-4
ISSN:3091-4841

Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires

Qiang ZhangYuexuanzi WangQingyang XiaoGuannan GengSteven J. Davis15
Nature
2025
2025/9/10
00 p.1-7
Smoke from extreme wildfires in Canada adversely affected air quality in many regions in 20231,2. Here we use satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model to quantify global and regional PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) exposure and human health impa...
Environmental impactNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-025-09482-1
ISSN:0028-0836

Accelerating land cover change in West Africa over four decades as population pressure increased

Stefanie M. HerrmannMartin BrandtKjeld RasmussenRasmus Fensholt
Communications Earth & Environment
2020
2020/11/27
Vol.1 No.1 p.1-10
Rapid population growth in West Africa has exerted increasing pressures on land resources, leading to observable changes in the land cover and land use. However, spatially explicit and thematically detailed quantitative analyses of land cover change over long time periods and at regional scale have ...
Environmental impactGeography
10.1038/S43247-020-00053-Y
ISSN:2662-4435

Characterization and forecast of global influenza subtype dynamics

Francesco BonacinaPierre-Yves BoëlleVittoria ColizzaOlivier LopezMaud Thomas6
Nature Health
2026
2026/3/11
Vol.1 No.4 p.390-402
The subtype composition of seasonal influenza waves varies in space and time. Influenza subtypes A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and B tend to have different impacts on population groups; therefore, understanding the drivers of their cocirculation and anticipating their composition is important for epidemic prepared...
EpidemiologyInfluenza virus
10.1038/S44360-026-00069-2
ISSN:3005-0693

Gender, education expansion and intergenerational educational mobility around the world

Hu YangQian Yue
Nature Human Behaviour
2023
2023/3/8
00 p.1-13
The extent to which people’s social status is associated with their parents’ status has far-reaching implications for the openness of and stratification in society. Whereas most research focused on the father-child association in advanced economies, less is known about the role mothers play in inter...
EducationSociology
10.1038/S41562-023-01545-5
ISSN:2397-3374

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

Vasilis KontisJames E. BennettTheo RashidRobbie M. ParksJonathan Pearson-Stuttard14
Nature Medicine
2020
2020/10/14
Vol.26 No.12 p.1919-1928
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. F...
PolicyPublic health
10.1038/S41591-020-1112-0
ISSN:1078-8956

Oil crop supply chains drive rising global biodiversity loss and outsource impacts to the tropics

Shuntian WangLivia CabernardMartin BrucknerMaulana Permana AjieStephan Pfister
Nature Food
2026
2026/6/19
00 p.1-14
Oil crop expansion threatens global biodiversity, yet its supply chain impacts remain poorly quantified. Here we analyse biodiversity impacts along oil crop supply chains from 1995 to 2020 using spatially explicit assessments, a hybridized multi-regional input–output framework, enhanced supply chain...
Environmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S43016-026-01375-4
ISSN:2662-1355

Risk-adjusted decision making can help protect food supply and farmer livelihoods in West Africa

Debbora LeipElena RovenskayaMatthias Wildemeersch
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
2024/2/24
Vol.5 No.1 p.1-13
Weather extremes are challenging the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2) – Zero Hunger globally and, most notably, in West Africa where it is further aggravated by rapid population growth. Here we present a stylized stochastic food production model to show how optimal crop allocation...
Climate-change adaptationSustainability
10.1038/S43247-024-01242-9
ISSN:2662-4435

Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa

Shen YuanKazuki SaitoPepijn A. J. van OortMartin K. van IttersumShaobing Peng6
Nature Communications
2024
2024/1/27
Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Africa produces around 60% of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, the rice-agricultural area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we used a process-based crop simulation mode...
AgricultureTropical ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-44950-8
ISSN:2041-1723

Sugar-sweetened beverage intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries

Laura Lara-CastorRenata MichaFrederick CudheaVictoria MillerPeilin Shi10
Nature Communications
2023
2023/10/3
Vol.14 No.1 p.1-19
Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with cardiometabolic diseases and social inequities. For most nations, recent estimates and trends of intake are not available; nor variation by education or urbanicity. We investigated SSB intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries, s...
Developing worldEpidemiologyRisk factorsScientific community
10.1038/S41467-023-41269-8
ISSN:2041-1723

The full health, economic, and social benefits of prospective Strep A vaccination

Daniel CadaretteMaddalena FerrannaJeffrey W. CannonKaja AbbasFiona Giannini7
Npj Vaccines
2023
2023/10/30
Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
Recent research has documented a wide range of health, economic, and social benefits conferred by vaccination, beyond the direct reductions in morbidity, mortality, and future healthcare costs traditionally captured in economic evaluations. In this paper, we describe the societal benefits that would...
Bacterial infectionPublic health
10.1038/S41541-023-00758-Z
ISSN:2059-0105

Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine

Han FuJoseph A. LewnardIsabel FrostRamanan LaxminarayanNimalan Arinaminpathy
Nature Communications
2021
2021/1/18
Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin...
Computational modelsEpidemiologyTuberculosisVaccines
10.1038/S41467-020-20731-X
ISSN:2041-1723

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study

Nicolò GozziMatteo ChinazziNatalie E. DeanIra M. Longini JrM. Elizabeth Halloran7
Nature Communications
2023
2023/6/6
Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) selected...
EpidemiologyInterdisciplinary studiesSARS-CoV-2VaccinesViral infection
10.1038/S41467-023-39098-W
ISSN:2041-1723

Ecologically unequal exchanges driven by EU consumption

Bruckner BenediktShan YuliPrell ChristinaZhou YannanZhong Honglin7
Nature Sustainability
2023
2023/1/26
00 p.1-12
In our globalized economy, the consumption of goods and services induces economic benefits but also environmental pressures and impacts around the world. Consumption levels are especially high in the current 27 member countries of the European Union (EU), which are some of the wealthiest economies i...
Ecological modellingEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41893-022-01055-8
ISSN:2398-9629

Children’s and adolescents’ rising animal-source food intakes in 1990–2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Miller VictoriaWebb PatrickCudhea FrederickZhang JianyiReedy Julia10
Nature Food
2023
2023/4/20
00 p.1-15
Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents’ physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countr...
EpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S43016-023-00731-Y
ISSN:2662-1355

Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure

Andrea M. TilstraAntonino PolizziSander WagnerEvelina T. Akimova
Nature Communications
2024
2024/3/18
Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but ...
Social sciencesSociology
10.1038/S41467-024-46582-4
ISSN:2041-1723

The global biomass of mammals since 1850

Lior GreenspoonNoam RamotUri MoranUri RollRob Phillips7
Nature Communications
2025
2025/10/27
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-7
Mammals are of central interest in ecology and conservation science. Here, we estimate the trajectory of mammal biomass globally over time — including humans, domesticated and wild mammals. According to our estimates, in the 1850s, the combined biomass of wild mammals was ≈200 Mt (million tonnes), r...
AgricultureConservation biologyEnvironmental sciencesMacroecologyZoology
10.1038/S41467-025-63888-Z
ISSN:2041-1723

Global warming may increase the burden of obstructive sleep apnea

Bastien LechatJack MannersLucía PinillaAmy C. ReynoldsHannah Scott15
Nature Communications
2025
2025/6/16
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
High ambient temperatures are associated with reduced sleep duration and quality, but effects on obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity are unknown. Here we quantify the effect of 24 h ambient temperature on nightly OSA severity in 116,620 users of a Food and Drug Administration-cleared nearable ove...
Environmental healthEpidemiologySleep disorders
10.1038/S41467-025-60218-1
ISSN:2041-1723

Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries

Ye YangZhang QingpengWei XuanCao ZhidongYuan Hsiang-Yu6
Nature Human Behaviour
2022
2022/1/31
00 p.1-10
Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 ...
Complex networks
10.1038/S41562-022-01289-8
ISSN:2397-3374

Underestimated climate risks from population ageing

Luke J. HarringtonFriederike E. L. Otto
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
2023/6/20
Vol.6 No.1 p.1-3
Population ageing is one of the most challenging social and economic issues facing governments in the twenty-first century1. Yet the compounding challenges of people living longer while also coping with the impacts of climate change has been subject to less examination. Here, we show that often-used...
Environmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00398-Z
ISSN:2397-3722