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相关论文
36Assessment of African grassland sustainability for livestock use by constructing a carrying capacity alert index
Shiqi Yu•Xiwang Zhang•Yansui Liu•Nana Yan•Weiwei Zhu等 11 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/30
0Beyond natural factors, overgrazing is emerging as a critical threat to grassland ecosystems, potentially driving degradation and unsustainable resource utilization. Grassland carrying capacity refers to the maximum number of livestock that can be sustained by available grassland biomass. Accurately...
Ecosystem ecologyGeographyGrassland ecologySustainability
10.1038/S41467-025-68084-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Food inequity and insecurity and MASLD: burden, challenges, and interventions
Shira Zelber-Sagi•Patrizia Carrieri•Juan M. Pericàs•Dana Ivancovsky-Wajcman•Zobair M. Younossi等 6 人
Nature Reviews Gastroenterology & Hepatology
2024
•2024/7/29
•00 p.1-19
Liver disease prevalence, severity, outcomes and hepatic risk factors (for example, unhealthy diet) are heavily affected by socioeconomic status and food insecurity. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most prevalent liver disease globally and is likely to co-occu...
EpidemiologyLifestyle modificationNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease
10.1038/S41575-024-00959-4
ISSN:1759-5045
Trade policy announcements can increase price volatility in global food commodity markets
Brander Michael•Bernauer Thomas•Huss Matthias
Nature Food
2023
•2023/4/10
•00 p.1-10
Many countries use trade policy to insulate their domestic markets from price volatility. However, there is a widespread concern that such policies—particularly export restrictions—may amplify global price volatility, adversely affecting other countries. Here, using an original dataset on trade poli...
AgricultureEconomicsPolitics and international relations
10.1038/S43016-023-00729-6
ISSN:2662-1355
Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change
Pierre Martre•Sibylle Dueri•Jose Rafael Guarin•Frank Ewert•Heidi Webber等 37 人
Nature Plants
2024
•2024/7/4
•Vol.10 No.7 p.1081-1090
Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to qua...
Environmental healthPlant breedingPlant physiologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41477-024-01739-3
ISSN:2055-0278
Reduced phosphorus availability in paddy soils under atmospheric CO2 enrichment
Wang Yu•Huang Yuanyuan•Song Lian•Yuan Jiahui•Li Wei等 23 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/1/19
•Vol.16 No.2 p.162-168
Phosphorus is an essential element for plant metabolism and growth, but its future supply under elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 remains uncertain. Here we present measurements of phosphorus concentration from two long-term (15 and 9 years) rice free air carbon dioxide enrichment experiments. Alth...
BiogeochemistryElement cycles
10.1038/S41561-022-01105-Y
ISSN:1752-0894
Coupled social and land use dynamics affect dietary choice and agricultural land-use extent
Pal Saptarshi•Bauch Chris T.•Anand Madhur
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/9/30
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-11
Dietary patterns have long been a driver of global land use. Increasingly, they also respond to it, in part because of social processes that support adoption of eco-conscious diets. Here we develop a coupled social-and-land use mathematical model parameterised for 153 countries. We project global la...
AgricultureEnvironmental sciencesEnvironmental studiesHuman behaviourPsychology and behaviour
10.1038/S43247-021-00255-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Clumped canopy architecture raises global crop yield and reduces N2O emissions
Yuli Yan•Chaoya Dang•Lei Liu•Zihao Wang•Liyuan Chen等 19 人
Nature Plants
2026
•2026/1/7
•Vol.12 No.1 p.49-61
Producing more food with reduced environmental impact remains a critical challenge. Previous agricultural management strategies have predominantly emphasized crop varieties, fertilization and irrigation, often requiring substantial resource inputs and technical expertise. However, the role of crop c...
AgroecologyPlant ecology
10.1038/S41477-025-02172-W
ISSN:2055-0278
Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions
Thomas Knoke•Nick Hanley•Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta•Ben Groom•Frank Venmans等 6 人
Nature Sustainability
2023
•2023/7/13
•00 p.1-12
Reducing global forest losses is essential to mitigate climate change and its associated social costs. Multiple market and non-market factors can enhance or reduce forest loss. Here, to understand the role of non-market factors (for example, policies, climate anomalies or conflicts), we can compare ...
Environmental economicsForestry
10.1038/S41893-023-01175-9
ISSN:2398-9629
Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries
Theresa Falkendal•Christian Otto•Jacob Schewe•Jonas Jägermeyr•Megan Konar等 8 人
Nature Food
2021
•2021/1/13
•Vol.2 No.1 p.11-14
Global food security is threatened by the effects of COVID-19 on international agricultural supply chains and locusts destroying crops and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. We quantify the possible impacts on global supplies and prices of wheat, rice and maize. We show that local pro...
AgricultureSocial sciences
10.1038/S43016-020-00211-7
ISSN:2662-1355
Optimized agricultural management reduces global cropland nitrogen losses to air and water
Luncheng You•Gerard H. Ros•Yongliang Chen•Fusuo Zhang•Wim de Vries
Nature Food
2024
•2024/11/12
•00 p.1-10
Nitrogen (N) losses from croplands substantially contribute to global N pollution. Assessing the reduction in N losses through improved N management practices is complex due to varying site conditions, such as land use, climate, soil properties and local farming methods. In this Article, we conducte...
AgroecologyElement cyclesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43016-024-01076-W
ISSN:2662-1355
Adaptive policies balancing trade, productivity and cropland increases can support Zambia’s nutrition security under future climate shocks
Stewart Jennings•Andrew Challinor•Jennie I. Macdiarmid•Richard King•Edward Pope等 26 人
Nature Food
2026
•2026/7/28
•00 p.1-7
Policies in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained by a limited knowledge of climate change extremes and a focus on agricultural production rather than nutrition supply. Here we model the impacts of future extremes on national-level calorie and nutrient supply in Zambia for production and nutrition focu...
AgricultureClimate-change adaptationClimate-change impactsRisk factors
10.1038/S43016-026-01405-1
ISSN:2662-1355
Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security
Tetsuji Tanaka•Laixiang Sun•Inbal Becker-Reshef•Xiao-Peng Song•Estefania Puricelli
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/9/21
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop har...
AgricultureNatural hazardsSustainability
10.1038/S43247-023-00992-2
ISSN:2662-4435
The future of antibiotic use in livestock
Alejandro Acosta•Wondmagegn Tirkaso•Francesco Nicolli•Thomas P. Van Boeckel•Giuseppina Cinardi等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/1
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Governments worldwide have pledged to reduce antimicrobial use in the agri-food system. This study projects global livestock antibiotic use quantities through 2040 under various scenarios. This work indicates that under a business-as-usual scenario, global antibiotic use could reach ~143,481 tons by...
AgricultureAntimicrobial resistanceEconomicsEpidemiology
10.1038/S41467-025-56825-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Behavioural plasticity of a pest species may aggravate global wheat yield loss under climate change
Gang Ma•Sylvain Pincebourde•Xue Bai•Yu Peng•Xue-Jing Wang等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/16
•Vol.16 No.1 p.111630
Extreme heat events are expected to increase under global climate change, which may depress the abundance of most insect species, including agricultural pests. However, here our experimental observations show that the behavioural plasticity within fine-scale microhabitats, which is often neglected i...
AgroecologyBehavioural ecology
10.1038/S41467-025-66101-3
ISSN:2041-1723
China’s ecological footprint via biomass import and consumption is increasing
Shaojian Wang•Chuanglin Fang•Xiangjie Chen•Junyi Liang•Kangyao Liu等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/9
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
As China’s economic and population demands grow, the need for biomass imports rises, presenting challenges for sustainable development and global ecosystem protection. Here we examine China’s increasing influence on global ecosystems through its biomass product consumption and trade using the Human ...
GeographySocioeconomic scenariosSustainability
10.1038/S43247-024-01399-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Global spillover effects of the European Green Deal and plausible mitigation options
Honglin Zhong•Yanxian Li•Jiaying Ding•Benedikt Bruckner•Kuishuang Feng等 9 人
Nature Sustainability
2024
•2024/9/20
•00 p.1-11
Achieving European Green Deal (EGD) targets for carbon removal and ecological restoration would reduce agricultural and forestry production within the European Union yet simultaneously extend ecosystem impacts elsewhere. Here we quantify such spillover impacts by coupling an extended multi-regional ...
AgricultureClimate-change mitigationDecision makingEnvironmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S41893-024-01428-1
ISSN:2398-9629
Half of global agricultural soil phosphorus fertility derived from anthropogenic sources
Demay Joséphine•Ringeval Bruno•Pellerin Sylvain•Nesme Thomas
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/1/5
•Vol.16 No.1 p.69-74
The use of mineral phosphorus (P) fertilizers, often referred to as anthropogenic phosphorus, has dramatically altered the global phosphorus cycle and increased soil phosphorus fertility and crop yields. Quantifying agriculture’s reliance on anthropogenic phosphorus requires estimates of its contrib...
Element cyclesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41561-022-01092-0
ISSN:1752-0894
Sustainable global irrigation expansion could support only two-thirds of croplands under 1.5 °C and 3 °C warming
Liyin He•Lorenzo Rosa
Nature Food
2026
•2026/4/23
•Vol.7 No.4 p.369-380
As climate warming exacerbates heat stress, promoting irrigation as a climate adaptation strategy can mitigate adverse impacts on agricultural productivity. Here we use global crop and irrigation datasets in conjunction with climate models to show that sustaining wheat, maize, rice and barley produc...
AgricultureClimate-change mitigationHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S43016-026-01338-9
ISSN:2662-1355
Sugar taxation for climate and sustainability goals
King Lewis C.•van den Bergh Jeroen
Nature Sustainability
2022
•2022/7/25
•00 p.1-7
Meeting environmental sustainability goals while simultaneously recovering from the health and economic crises arising from the coronavirus pandemic requires creative policy solutions. Sugar taxation presents one such policy as sugar crops are arguably the least efficient to consume from a health pe...
Climate-change mitigationEnvironmental economicsSustainability
10.1038/S41893-022-00934-4
ISSN:2398-9629
International cooperation was key to stabilize wheat prices after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Kilian Kuhla•Michael J. Puma•Christian Otto
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/3
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a global wheat price spike and food insecurities in import-dependent countries. We combine an analysis of the global wheat supply network with an agricultural commodity price model to investigate national impaired supplies and the global annual wheat...
Environmental impactEnvironmental studies
10.1038/S43247-024-01638-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa
Shen Yuan•Kazuki Saito•Pepijn A. J. van Oort•Martin K. van Ittersum•Shaobing Peng等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/1/27
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Africa produces around 60% of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, the rice-agricultural area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we used a process-based crop simulation mode...
AgricultureTropical ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-44950-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Associations between national plant-based vs animal-based protein supplies and age-specific mortality in human populations
Caitlin J. Andrews•David Raubenheimer•Stephen J. Simpson•Alistair M. Senior
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/11
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Transitions to sustainable food systems require shifts in food production and availability, particularly the replacement of animal-based protein with plant-based protein. To explore how this transition may relate to demographic patterns, we undertake an ecological analysis of global associations bet...
AgricultureData processingEnvironmental impactEpidemiologyNutrition
10.1038/S41467-025-58475-1
ISSN:2041-1723
High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment
Alexander Peter•Arneth Almut•Henry Roslyn•Maire Juliette•Rabin Sam等 6 人
Nature Food
2022
•2022/12/23
•Vol.4 No.1 p.84-95
Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural inp...
AgricultureSustainability
10.1038/S43016-022-00659-9
ISSN:2662-1355
Health burden from food systems is highly unequal across income groups
Lianming Zheng•Wulahati Adalibieke•Feng Zhou•Pan He•Yilin Chen等 21 人
Nature Food
2024
•2024/3/14
•00 p.1-11
Food consumption contributes to the degradation of air quality in regions where food is produced, creating a contrast between the health burden caused by a specific population through its food consumption and that faced by this same population as a consequence of food production activities. Here we ...
Environmental impactEnvironmental studies
10.1038/S43016-024-00946-7
ISSN:2662-1355
Global biodiversity loss from outsourced deforestation
R. Alex Wiebe•David S. Wilcove
Nature
2025
•2025/2/12
•Vol.639 No.8054 p.389-394
Globalization increasingly allows countries to externalize the environmental costs of land use, including biodiversity loss1. So far, we have a very incomplete understanding of how countries cause biodiversity loss outside their own borders through their demand for agricultural and forestry products...
BiodiversityConservation biologyEnvironmental impactMacroecology
10.1038/S41586-024-08569-5
ISSN:0028-0836
Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure
Weston Anderson•Shraddhanand Shukla•Jim Verdin•Andrew Hoell•Christina Justice等 11 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/23
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in cl...
AgroecologyAgricultureClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-024-51555-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production
Castonguay Adam C.•Polasky Stephen•H. Holden Matthew•Herrero Mario•Mason-D’Croz Daniel等 15 人
Nature Sustainability
2023
•2023/1/2
•Vol.6 No.3 p.284-294
Beef production represents a complex global sustainability challenge including reducing poverty and hunger and the need for climate action. Understanding the trade-offs between these goals at a global scale and at resolutions to inform land use is critical for a global transition towards sustainable...
AgricultureComputational scienceEnvironmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S41893-022-01017-0
ISSN:2398-9629
Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere
Quanbo Zhao•Chenzhi Wang•Xuhui Wang•Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei•Christoph Müller等 22 人
Nature Food
2026
•2026/2/18
•Vol.7 No.2 p.194-205
Exposure to extreme high temperatures is a major constraint on global crop productivity, yet most large-scale assessments rely on fixed temperature thresholds that overlook regional variation in genetics, environment and management. Consequently, the temperature thresholds at which heat exposure beg...
AgroecologyClimate change
10.1038/S43016-026-01298-0
ISSN:2662-1355
Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa
Stewart Jennings•Andrew Challinor•Pete Smith•Jennie I. Macdiarmid•Edward Pope等 53 人
Nature Food
2024
•2024/1/2
•00 p.1-11
Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment fr...
AgricultureClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationClimate-change policyDeveloping world
10.1038/S43016-023-00901-Y
ISSN:2662-1355
Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl
Yuan Shen•Linquist Bruce A.•Wilson Lloyd T.•Cassman Kenneth G.•Stuart Alexander M.等 19 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/12/9
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
Future rice systems must produce more grain while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. A key question is how to orient agricultural research & development (R&D) programs at national to global scales to maximize the return on investment. Here we assess yield gap and resource-use efficiency ...
AgroecologyEnvironmental impactPlant ecology
10.1038/S41467-021-27424-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl
Yuan Shen•Stuart Alexander M.•Laborte Alice G.•Rattalino Edreira Juan I.•Dobermann Achim等 22 人
Nature Food
2022
•2022/3/24
•Vol.3 No.3 p.217-226
Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a lar...
EcophysiologyTropical ecology
10.1038/S43016-022-00477-Z
ISSN:2662-1355
Adopting yield-improving practices to meet maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa without cropland expansion
Fernando Aramburu-Merlos•Fatima A. M. Tenorio•Nester Mashingaidze•Alex Sananka•Stephen Aston等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/27
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase 2.3 times during the next 30 years driven by demographic and dietary changes. Over the past two decades, the area cropped with maize has expanded by 17 million hectares in the region, with limited yield increase. Following this trend could p...
AgroecologyTropical ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-48859-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Oil crop supply chains drive rising global biodiversity loss and outsource impacts to the tropics
Shuntian Wang•Livia Cabernard•Martin Bruckner•Maulana Permana Ajie•Stephan Pfister
Nature Food
2026
•2026/6/19
•00 p.1-14
Oil crop expansion threatens global biodiversity, yet its supply chain impacts remain poorly quantified. Here we analyse biodiversity impacts along oil crop supply chains from 1995 to 2020 using spatially explicit assessments, a hybridized multi-regional input–output framework, enhanced supply chain...
Environmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S43016-026-01375-4
ISSN:2662-1355
Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios
Henry Roslyn C.•Arneth Almut•Jung Martin•Rabin Sam S.•Rounsevell Mark D.等 7 人
Nature Sustainability
2022
•2022/2/3
•00 p.1-8
Global biodiversity is rapidly declining, and goals to halt biodiversity loss, such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, have not been achieved. To avoid further biodiversity loss, area-based protection will form part of new biodiversity targets. We use a state-of-the-art global land-use model, the La...
Conservation biologyDiseasesRisk factorsSustainability
10.1038/S41893-021-00844-X
ISSN:2398-9629
Asymmetric intensification increases global disparities in cropland use and emissions
Zhaohai Bai•Xiaoyang Shan•Xun Wei•Gang Wang•Jiafa Luo等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/6/16
•00 p.1-8
Global cropland use transformations are exacerbating disparities in environmental burdens between nations. Here, using a multiscalar nested driver framework to classify 174 countries (1992–2021) on the basis of their relative changes in harvest and cropland area, we show that 88% of global harvest a...
AgricultureSustainability
10.1038/S41558-026-02666-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Rebound effects could offset more than half of avoided food loss and waste
Margaret Hegwood•Matthew G. Burgess•Erin M. Costigliolo•Pete Smith•Bojana Bajželj等 7 人
Nature Food
2023
•2023/7/20
•Vol.4 No.7 p.585-595
Reducing food loss and waste (FLW) could lessen the environmental impacts of food systems and improve food security. However, rebound effects—whereby efficiency improvements cause price decreases and consumption increases—may offset some avoided FLW. Here we model rebounds in food consumption under ...
Environmental economicsSocioeconomic scenariosSustainability
10.1038/S43016-023-00792-Z
ISSN:2662-1355