Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Database
English
the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project 6
数据描述
The release includes four important updates and extensions of the SSP IAM scenarios: extended reporting of existing SSP scenarios, covering additional new variables, a set of new low SSP-based mitigation scenarios for a radiative forcing target of 1.9 W/m2 were added, some scenarios were updated in order to reflect recent near-term trends (eg for emissions), and the projections for greenhouse gas emissions and other radioactively active substances were harmonized for the base year to historical inventories. Nine of these harmonized SSP IAM emissions projections were provided to the ScenarioMIP of CMIP6 (the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project 6) and will be part of the detailed assessment of possible future climate changes.
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at
IP: 147.125.102.81
加载中...
相关论文
49Changing climate and socioeconomic factors contribute to global antimicrobial resistance
Weibin Li•Tingting Huang•Chaojie Liu•Haishaerjiang Wushouer•Xinyi Yang等 18 人
Nature Medicine
2025
•2025/4/28
•00 p.1-11
Climate change poses substantial challenges in containing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from a One Health perspective. Using 4,502 AMR surveillance records involving 32 million tested isolates from 101 countries (1999–2022), we analyzed the impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors on AMR. ...
Antimicrobial resistanceInterdisciplinary studiesRisk factors
10.1038/S41591-025-03629-3
ISSN:1078-8956
Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development
Marina Andrijevic•Jesus Crespo Cuaresma•Tabea Lissner•Adelle Thomas•Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/12/15
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-8
Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (...
Climate-change adaptationSocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41467-020-19856-W
ISSN:2041-1723
South Asian agriculture increasingly dependent on meltwater and groundwater
Lutz A. F.•Immerzeel W. W.•Siderius C.•Wijngaard R. R.•Nepal S.等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/5/19
•00 p.1-8
Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic growth increases water demand. Here we use a high-r...
AgricultureClimate-change impactsHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-022-01355-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls
Tong Dan•Geng Guannan•Zhang Qiang•Cheng Jing•Qin Xinying等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/11/29
•00 p.1-7
Reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel- and biomass-fired power plants often also reduces air pollution, benefitting both climate and public health. Here, we examine the relationship of climate and health benefits by modelling individual electricity-generating units worldwide across a range of clim...
Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationEnvironmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S41558-021-01216-1
ISSN:1758-678X
On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst•Andries F. Hof•Detlef P. van Vuuren
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/5/6
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and dis...
Environmental economicsEnvironmental sciencesEnvironmental social sciencesSocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41467-021-22826-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments
Harrington Luke J.•Schleussner Carl-Friedrich•Otto Friederike E. L.
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/12/8
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat...
Climate changeClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-27491-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
Tang Rong•Zhao Jing•Liu Yifan•Huang Xin•Zhang Yanxu等 9 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/2/23
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both po...
Climate-change mitigationDeveloping worldEnvironmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S41467-022-28672-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Sensitivity of subregional distribution of socioeconomic conditions to the global assessment of water scarcity
Modi Prakat•Hanasaki Naota•Yamazaki Dai•Boulange Julien Eric Stanislas•Oki Taikan
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/6/25
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
Water availability per capita is among the most fundamental water-scarcity indicators used extensively in global grid-based water resources assessments. Recently, it has extended to include the economic aspect, a proxy of the capability for water management which we applied globally under socioecono...
HydrologySocioeconomic scenariosWater resources
10.1038/S43247-022-00475-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Greater losses from heat exposure experienced by female smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa
Lan Wu•Yingnan Zhang•Hualou Long•Wenkai Bao•Wu Xiao等 13 人
Nature Sustainability
2026
•2026/6/26
•00 p.1-17
Intensifying heat anomalies place women at disproportionate risks from crop damage and food insecurity but such observed temperature–yield dynamics are difficult to quantify. Evidence remains insufficient on how gendered agricultural sensitivities are affected by normative barriers and resource allo...
GovernanceSustainability
10.1038/S41893-026-01881-0
ISSN:2398-9629
Global projections of heat exposure of older adults
Giacomo Falchetta•Enrica De Cian•Ian Sue Wing•Deborah Carr
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/14
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temp...
Environmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-47197-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
Bas J. van Ruijven•Enrica De Cian•Ian Sue Wing
Nature Communications
2019
•2019/6/24
•Vol.10 No.1 p.1-12
Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under fi...
Climate-change adaptationClimate-change impactsEnergy economicsEnergy supply and demand
10.1038/S41467-019-10399-3
ISSN:2041-1723
The contribution of data-driven poverty alleviation funds in achieving mid-21st-Century multidimensional poverty alleviation planning
Yang Di•Luan Weixin•Yang Jun•Xue Bing•Zhang Xiaoling等 7 人
Humanities And Social Sciences Communications
2022
•2022/5/20
•Vol.9 No.1 p.1-9
The first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) is intended to eradicate multi-dimensional poverty globally. The same multidimensional poverty indices for India and the Middle East/Africa in 2020 indicate that 10–14 years are still required to reach the level of China’s poverty eradication. Using machi...
Development studiesGeographySocial policy
10.1057/S41599-022-01180-X
ISSN:2662-9992
The social costs of tropical cyclones
Hazem Krichene•Thomas Vogt•Franziska Piontek•Tobias Geiger•Christof Schötz等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/11/23
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-13
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here deriv...
Climate-change mitigationClimate-change policyGovernanceNatural hazardsSocial sciences
10.1038/S41467-023-43114-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Coupled social and land use dynamics affect dietary choice and agricultural land-use extent
Pal Saptarshi•Bauch Chris T.•Anand Madhur
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/9/30
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-11
Dietary patterns have long been a driver of global land use. Increasingly, they also respond to it, in part because of social processes that support adoption of eco-conscious diets. Here we develop a coupled social-and-land use mathematical model parameterised for 153 countries. We project global la...
AgricultureEnvironmental sciencesEnvironmental studiesHuman behaviourPsychology and behaviour
10.1038/S43247-021-00255-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
Drouet Laurent•Bosetti Valentina•Padoan Simone A.•Aleluia Reis Lara•Bertram Christoph等 30 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/11/29
•Vol.11 No.12 p.1070-1076
Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warm...
Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationClimate-change policy
10.1038/S41558-021-01218-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie•Øivind Hodnebrog•Gunnar Myhre
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/9/8
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-14
The atmospheric methane trend is not fully understood. Here we investigate the role of the main sink, the main natural source, and anthropogenic emissions on the methane growth rate over the last three decades using numerical models and emission inventories. We find that the long-term trend is drive...
Atmospheric chemistryBiogeochemistry
10.1038/S43247-023-00969-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming
Li Longhui•Zhang Yue•Zhou Tianjun•Wang Kaicun•Wang Can等 10 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/9
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-7
Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0....
Climate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-33047-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Urban and non-urban contributions to the social cost of carbon
Francisco Estrada•Veronica Lupi•W. J. Wouter Botzen•Richard S. J. Tol
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/5/6
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
The social cost of carbon (SCC) serves as a concise measure of climate change’s economic impact, often reported at the global and country level. SCC values tend to be disproportionately high for less-developed, populous countries. Previous studies do not distinguish between urban and non-urban areas...
Climate-change impactsGeography
10.1038/S41467-025-59466-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands
David J. Beerling•Euripides P. Kantzas•Mark R. Lomas•Peter Wade•Rafael M. Eufrasio等 21 人
Nature
2020
•2020/7/8
•Vol.583 No.7815 p.242-248
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change1. ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidifi...
Carbon cycleClimate change
10.1038/S41586-020-2448-9
ISSN:0028-0836
China’s ecological footprint via biomass import and consumption is increasing
Shaojian Wang•Chuanglin Fang•Xiangjie Chen•Junyi Liang•Kangyao Liu等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/9
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
As China’s economic and population demands grow, the need for biomass imports rises, presenting challenges for sustainable development and global ecosystem protection. Here we examine China’s increasing influence on global ecosystems through its biomass product consumption and trade using the Human ...
GeographySocioeconomic scenariosSustainability
10.1038/S43247-024-01399-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality
Haozhi Pan•Jessica Page•Rui Shi•Cong Cong•Zipan Cai等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/7/20
•00 p.1-9
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are essential for carbon-neutral cities, yet how to effectively allocate them remains a question. Carbon neutrality requires city-led climate action plans that incorporate both indirect and direct contributions of NBS. Here we assessed the carbon emissions mitigation pot...
Climate-change mitigationEcosystem servicesEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01737-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change
Yiling Chen•Zhiying Su•R. Iestyn Woolway•Niko Wanders•Sijia Wu等 7 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/6
•Vol.17 No.1 p.940
Rivers and the organisms living within them are highly vulnerable to hot thermal extremes. However, very little is known about river heatwaves, consecutive episodes of anomalously high temperature in rivers, and how they may evolve under climate change. Here we show that river heatwaves will become ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-66868-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies
Pavanello Filippo•De Cian Enrica•Davide Marinella•Mistry Malcolm•Cruz Talita等 10 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/9
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are ...
Climate-change adaptationEnergy and behaviour
10.1038/S41467-021-26592-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
Marina Andrijevic•Jesus Crespo Cuaresma•Raya Muttarak•Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Nature Sustainability
2019
•2019/10/28
•Vol.3 No.1 p.35-41
Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of ...
Climate-change adaptationSocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41893-019-0405-0
ISSN:2398-9629
High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment
Alexander Peter•Arneth Almut•Henry Roslyn•Maire Juliette•Rabin Sam等 6 人
Nature Food
2022
•2022/12/23
•Vol.4 No.1 p.84-95
Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural inp...
AgricultureSustainability
10.1038/S43016-022-00659-9
ISSN:2662-1355
Projecting spatial interactions between global population and land use changes in the 21st century
Di Yang•Wei-Xin Luan•Xiaoling Zhang
Npj Urban Sustainability
2023
•2023/11/4
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
Previous research on global urban land expansion has primarily focused on accommodating the growing population without adequately considering the trade-offs between urban land and ecological services. Consequently, it is important to investigate the effect of this expansion on the ecological service...
Development studiesEnvironmental studies
10.1038/S42949-023-00131-Y
ISSN:2661-8001
The carbon costs of global wood harvests
Liqing Peng•Timothy D. Searchinger•Jessica Zionts•Richard Waite
Nature
2023
•2023/7/5
•00 p.1-6
After agriculture, wood harvest is the human activity that has most reduced the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils1,2. Although felled wood releases carbon to the atmosphere in various steps, the fact that growing trees absorb carbon has led to different carbon-accounting approaches for wood ...
Climate-change mitigationEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41586-023-06187-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Population aging mitigates food consumption-induced non-CO2 GHG emissions in China
Kaijie Chen•Tao Huang•Xiaodong Zhang•Xinrui Liu•Xiaohu Jian等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/16
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
China has been experiencing rapidly growing agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aged population owing to its vast population and enormous food demands. However, the response of non-CO2 GHG emission to population aging-related food consumption is unclear. The food inspection surve...
Environmental sciencesEnvironmental social sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01038-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Underestimated climate risks from population ageing
Luke J. Harrington•Friederike E. L. Otto
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/6/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-3
Population ageing is one of the most challenging social and economic issues facing governments in the twenty-first century1. Yet the compounding challenges of people living longer while also coping with the impacts of climate change has been subject to less examination. Here, we show that often-used...
Environmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00398-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Globally interconnected solar-wind system addresses future electricity demands
Hou Jiang•Ling Yao•Jun Qin•Yongqing Bai•Martin Brandt等 11 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/5/15
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-16
Accelerating energy transition towards renewables is central to net-zero emissions. However, building a global power system dominated by solar and wind energy presents immense challenges. Here, we demonstrate the potential of a globally interconnected solar-wind system to meet future electricity dem...
Energy and societyRenewable energySocial sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-59879-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Aerosol inhibition on photochemical surface ozone formation under future climate and air quality scenarios
G. S. Gopikrishnan•D. M. Westervelt•J. Kuttippurath
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/25
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Aerosols significantly influence tropospheric oxidation and ozone formation by modulating photolysis rates and radical sinks. This study employs the GEOS-Chem model to analyze different aerosol heterogeneous uptake coefficients (0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4) and their effects on photochemical ozone levels ac...
Environmental chemistryEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01048-2
ISSN:2397-3722
A traceable global warming record and clarity for the 1.5 °C and well-below-2 °C goals
Gottfried Kirchengast•Moritz Pichler
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/6/2
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Global surface air temperature change versus preindustrial level is a primary metric of global warming. Its 20-year mean serves as the indicator of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to monitor threshold crossings like of the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here we introduce a new b...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change mitigationClimate-change policyEnvironmental sciencesInterdisciplinary studies
10.1038/S43247-025-02368-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Decreasing resilience of China’s coupled nitrogen–phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action
Zimeng Luo•Yadong Yu•Ali Kharrazi•Brian D. Fath•Kazuyo Matsubae等 10 人
Nature Food
2024
•2024/1/2
•00 p.1-11
The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N–P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in res...
Climate and Earth system modellingElement cyclesSustainability
10.1038/S43016-023-00889-5
ISSN:2662-1355
The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration
Bachner Gabriel•Lincke Daniel•Hinkel Jochen
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/29
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-13
Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) is projected to be substantial, triggering human adaptation responses, including increasing protection and out-migration from coastlines. Yet, in macroeconomic assessments of SLR the latter option has been given little attention. We fill this gap by provid...
Climate-change impactsEconomics
10.1038/S41467-022-33043-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Global health effects of future atmospheric mercury emissions
Yanxu Zhang•Zhengcheng Song•Shaojian Huang•Peng Zhang•Yiming Peng等 14 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/5/24
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017...
Element cyclesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-021-23391-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Carbon dioxide emissions from global overseas coal-fired power plants
Peng Guo•Huizhong Shen•Yilin Chen•Hancheng Dai•Zelin Mai等 26 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/9/19
•00 p.1-7
Foreign investments in overseas coal-fired power plants (OCPs) largely impede decarbonization efforts, yet their global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have not been sufficiently quantified. Here we analyse investment data from 908 OCPs worldwide, and then reveal current annual emissions of 0.53 GtCO...
Climate changeEnergy policy
10.1038/S41558-024-02114-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Job seekers have more suitable job opportunities in decarbonization in the Global North than in the Global South
Shi Zhao•Quan Shao•Lei Zhang•Xia Zhou•Huaming Guo等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
A just transition to green economy sectors must be grounded in optimizing job matching, that is, suitable opportunities of aligning employers with job seekers, which is critical for meeting a zero-emissions future. However, the interaction between job matching and emission patterns remains unclear. ...
Climate-change mitigationEconomics
10.1038/S43247-025-02230-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Rising vulnerability of compound risk inequality to ageing and extreme heatwave exposure in global cities
Mingxing Chen•Liangkan Chen•Yuan Zhou•Maogui Hu•Yanpeng Jiang等 8 人
Npj Urban Sustainability
2023
•2023/6/24
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-11
Continued warming trends lead to an increasing risk of exposure to extreme heatwaves, which threaten the health of urban residents, especially the ageing population. Here, we project the spatiotemporal trend of future exposure risk across 9188 global urban settlements between 2020 and 2100 under the...
GeographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S42949-023-00118-9
ISSN:2661-8001
Advanced photovoltaic technology can reduce land requirements and climate impact on energy generation
Ankita Saxena•Calum Brown•Almut Arneth•Mark Rounsevell
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/11
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Future changes in solar radiation and rising temperatures will likely reduce global solar photovoltaic potential, but advancing photovoltaic technologies could counteract these effects. We investigate the potential of photovoltaic to satisfy energy demands given climate change and technological deve...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S43247-024-01754-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Guangzhao Chen•Xia Li•Xiaoping Liu•Yimin Chen•Xun Liang等 11 人
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/1/27
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-12
Despite its small land coverage, urban land and its expansion have exhibited profound impacts on global environments. Here, we present the scenario projections of global urban land expansion under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our projections feature a fine spatial resol...
GeographySocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41467-020-14386-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Rising importance of agricultural nitrogen oxide emissions in China’s future PM2.5 pollution mitigation
Yuanhong Zhao•Zhanpeng Su•Youfan Chen•Suyi Hou•Xiao Lu等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
Controlling ammonia (NH3) emissions through agricultural management has been recognized as effectively mitigating fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in eastern China. However, agricultural nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions are often overlooked. Here we estimate agricultural NOx emissions and des...
Atmospheric chemistryEnvironmental chemistry
10.1038/S41612-025-00976-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions
Pengjun Zhao•Yunlin Li•Caixia Zhang•Tingting Kang•Zhangyuan He等 10 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/9/29
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Climate-driven Arctic ice melt is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), providing shorter paths for global trade while also raising critical environmental concerns. Here, we quantify the long-term carbon consequences of ASR access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model th...
Climate-change impactsClimate-change policy
10.1038/S41467-025-64437-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Effect of climate-driven childhood sleep erosion on potential regional economic inequality
Bowen Chu•Xiang Liu•Yijing Zhu•Jianfeng Luo•Lan Luo等 11 人
Nature Sustainability
2026
•2026/3/13
•00 p.1-10
Climate change is likely to increase human exposure to high temperatures, leading to sleep loss. Reduced sleep duration may impair intellectual and cognitive performance, including in childhood, with potential socioeconomic impacts. Here we explore the potential global and regional economic costs of...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41893-026-01779-X
ISSN:2398-9629
Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Irina Melnikova•Tomohiro Hajima•Hideo Shiogama•Michiya Hayashi•Akihiko Ito等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-14
The Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest tropical forest, plays a crucial role in climate regulation but faces risks of dieback under climate change. Here, we examine the Amazon dieback projections from state-of-the-art Earth System Models under high-emission scenarios extending into the 23rd cent...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02606-5
ISSN:2662-4435
The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
D. P. van Vuuren•Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst•Stijn Marsman•Maarten van den Berg•Andries F. Hof等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2020
•2020/3/23
•Vol.10 No.4 p.329-334
Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and uncertainty sources of achieving temperature targets. By calibrating to the model-based litera...
Climate changeClimate-change mitigationSocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41558-020-0732-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Rethinking energy planning to mitigate the impacts of African hydropower
Angelo Carlino•Rafael Schmitt•Anna Clark•Andrea Castelletti
Nature Sustainability
2024
•2024/6/4
•00 p.1-12
Around 100 GW of new hydropower projects have been proposed in continental Africa to contribute to meeting future energy demand. Yet, the future expansion of hydropower on the continent faces obstacles due to the impacts of dams on rivers, greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs and increasingly co...
Climate changeEcosystem servicesEnergy modellingEnvironmental sciencesHydroelectricity
10.1038/S41893-024-01367-X
ISSN:2398-9629
Rising infrastructure inequalities accompany urbanization and economic development
Bhartendu Pandey•Christa Brelsford•Karen C. Seto
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/30
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Impending global urban population growth is expected to occur with considerable infrastructure expansion. However, our understanding of attendant infrastructure inequalities is limited, highlighting a critical knowledge gap in the sustainable development implications of urbanization. Using satellite...
Developing worldGeography
10.1038/S41467-025-56539-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050
Anthony Sardain•Erik Sardain•Brian Leung
Nature Sustainability
2019
•2019/3/18
•Vol.2 No.4 p.274-282
Socioeconomic factors, including population growth, global trade and the worldwide transport of materials, interact with environmental drivers to determine the sustainability of natural systems. We focus on the global shipping network, which is central to invasive species spread worldwide. We explai...
BiogeographyClimate changeEcological modellingIndustryInvasive species
10.1038/S41893-019-0245-Y
ISSN:2398-9629
Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity
Li Guangdong•Fang Chuanglin•Li Yingjie•Wang Zhenbo•Sun Siao等 12 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/3/25
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-12
Rapid urban expansion has profound impacts on global biodiversity through habitat conversion, degradation, fragmentation, and species extinction. However, how future urban expansion will affect global biodiversity needs to be better understood. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap by combinin...
BiodiversityEnvironmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S41467-022-29324-2
ISSN:2041-1723