CMIP6 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Overview
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United States, Livermore
the Department of Energy

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CMIP6 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Overview

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, now in its 6th phase, is overseen by the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM). An introductory overview of CMIP6 is also provided by the WGCM.

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Arctic warming-induced cold damage to East Asian terrestrial ecosystems

Kim Jin-SooKug Jong-SeongJeong SujongYoon Jin-HoZeng Ning12
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
2022/2/1
Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
The global mean temperature is increasing due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but paradoxically, many regions in the mid-latitudes have experienced cold winters recently. Here we analyse multiple observed and modelled datasets to evaluate links between Arctic temperature varia...
Atmospheric dynamicsCarbon cycleEcology
10.1038/S43247-022-00343-7
ISSN:2662-4435

Escalating tropical cyclone precipitation extremes and landslide hazards in South China under Global Warming

Xiaoming ShiYang LiuJianan ChenHaoming ChenYueya Wang9
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/5/21
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to produce more intense precipitation under global warming. However, substantial uncertainties exist in the projection of coarse-resolution global climate models. Here, we use deep learning to aid targeted cloud-resolving simulations of extreme TCs. Contrary to t...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00654-W
ISSN:2397-3722

Multi-year La Niña frequency tied to southward tropical Pacific wind shift

Guojian WangAgus Santoso
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/9/30
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Multi-year La Niña events cause prolonged climate disruptions worldwide, but a systematic understanding of the underlying mechanisms is not yet established. Here we show using observations and models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project that a greater frequency of consecutiv...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00772-5
ISSN:2397-3722

Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude

D. M. SmithN. J. DunstoneR. EadeS. C. HardimanL. Hermanson7
Nature Climate Change
2025
2025/3/12
00 p.1-8
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominates winters in Western Europe and eastern North America. Future climate model projections of the NAO are highly uncertain due to both modelled irreducible internal variability and different model responses. Here we show that some of the model spread in mult...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02277-2
ISSN:1758-678X

Climate simulations and ice core data highlight the Holocene conundrum over tropical mountains

Yuntao BaoZhengyu LiuLonnie G. ThompsonEllen Mosley-ThompsonLingfeng Wan6
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
2025/3/16
Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Resolving discrepancies in long-term Holocene temperature trends between climate models and proxy records is essential to improve future climate projections. However, uncertainties in paleoclimate reconstructions limit their ability to constrain models. This study compares ice core-derived oxygen is...
Atmospheric dynamicsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02188-2
ISSN:2662-4435

Southern Ocean heat buffer constrained by present-day ENSO teleconnection

Guojian WangWenju CaiAgus SantosoKai Yang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/8/9
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
The heat storage capacity of Southern Ocean (SO) buffers future atmospheric warming but differs vastly across climate models. Reducing its projection uncertainty is vital for understanding and evaluating future global sustainability. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we show that ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00731-0
ISSN:2397-3722

20th century cooling of the deep ocean contributed to delayed acceleration of Earth’s energy imbalance

Bagnell A.DeVries T.
Nature Communications
2021
2021/7/29
Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
The historical evolution of Earth’s energy imbalance can be quantified by changes in the global ocean heat content. However, historical reconstructions of ocean heat content often neglect a large volume of the deep ocean, due to sparse observations of ocean temperatures below 2000 m. Here, we provid...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-021-24472-3
ISSN:2041-1723

Baseline temperature variability shapes the geographical distribution of future hot extremes under anthropogenic warming

Zhili TangShenghui ZhouXiaohui MaLixin WuWenju Cai8
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
2025/11/26
Vol.6 No.1 p.9670
The intensifying hot extreme events under anthropogenic warming severely affect human health and the natural environment, yet the factors driving their heterogeneous geographical distribution remain unclear. Here we utilize an eddy-resolving high-resolution climate model alongside multiple simulatio...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S43247-025-02929-3
ISSN:2662-4435

Multi-objective observational constraint of tropical Atlantic and Pacific low-cloud variability narrows uncertainty in cloud feedback

Mengxi WuHui SuJ. David Neelin
Nature Communications
2025
2025/1/2
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
Tropical marine low cloud feedback is key to the uncertainty in climate sensitivity, and it depends on the warming pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we empirically constrain this feedback in two major low cloud regions, the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, using interannual variability...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-024-53985-W
ISSN:2041-1723

Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes

Simolo ClaudiaCorti Susanna
Nature Communications
2022
2022/12/24
Vol.13 No.1 p.1-13
Heat extremes have grown disproportionately since the advent of industrialization and are expected to intensify further under unabated greenhouse warming, spreading unevenly across the globe. However, amplification mechanisms are highly uncertain because of the complex interplay between regional phy...
Natural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-35571-0
ISSN:2041-1723

More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice

Zhang PengfeiChen GangTing MingfangRuby Leung L.Guan Bin6
Nature Climate Change
2023
2023/2/6
Vol.13 No.3 p.266-273
In recent decades, Arctic sea-ice coverage underwent a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what extent atmospheric processes such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense corridors of moisture transport, contribute to this reduced...
Climate changeCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-023-01599-3
ISSN:1758-678X

Competing impacts of tropical Pacific and Atlantic on Southern Ocean inter-decadal variability

Shuai-Lei YaoRenguang WuJing-Jia LuoWen Zhou
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/5/16
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
The observed Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) has experienced prominent inter-decadal variability nearly in phase with the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but less associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), challenging the prevailing view of Pacific-Atlantic sy...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S41612-024-00662-W
ISSN:2397-3722

Persistence of Arctic Ocean acidification under negative emissions

Eike E. KöhnLester KwiatkowskiJuliette MignotGuillaume GastineauOlivier Torres6
Nature Climate Change
2026
2026/8/6
00 p.1-8
Although net negative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are essential to meet climate targets, little is known about how declining atmospheric CO2 levels will affect ocean acidification. Here, by analysing the acidity ([H+]) and corrosivity to aragonite (ΩArag) in eight Earth system models that made...
BiogeochemistryClimate and Earth system modellingMarine chemistry
10.1038/S41558-026-02715-9
ISSN:1758-678X

Opposing hydroclimate extremes in Central and mainland Southeast Asia over past millennium

Na WangSylvia DeeJun HuKaustubh Thirumalai
Nature Geoscience
2026
2026/6/22
00 p.1-8
Modern instrumental observations indicate increasing drought in monsoonal mainland Southeast Asia and more frequent extreme precipitation events in arid Central Asia. These changes underlie the emergence of atypical hydroclimate extremes that deviate from the mean climate background, posing severe t...
Atmospheric dynamicsPalaeoclimateProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-026-02020-2
ISSN:1752-0894

Anthropogenically-driven escalating impact of soil-based compound dry-hot extremes on vegetation productivity

Yani LiangJun WangZengchao HaoHuanjiong WangHuijuan Cui6
Nature Communications
2026
2026/2/3
Vol.17 No.1 p.23030
Compound dry-hot extremes exert stronger environmental impacts than individual dry or hot extremes. While evidence for increasing meteorological compound dry-hot extremes (defined using surface air temperature and vapor pressure deficit or precipitation) is growing, the impacts and evolving risks of...
AttributionCarbon cycleEcosystem ecologyNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-68878-3
ISSN:2041-1723

Hysteresis and reversibility of agroecological droughts in response to carbon dioxide removal

Laibao LiuMathias HauserMichael WindischSonia I. Seneviratne
Nature Water
2025
2025/9/10
00 p.1-8
Agroecological droughts are expected to increase with climate change, becoming one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and human society. To mitigate climate change and the growing risk of agroecological droughts, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly recognized as unavoidable. However, it ...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S44221-025-00487-8
ISSN:2731-6084

Emergence of anthropogenic precipitation changes in a future warmer climate

Shoji KusunokiRyo MizutaMasahiro Hosaka
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
2025/7/3
Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The ‘emergence year’ Ye is defined as the start of a future period during which precipitation consistently exceeds the maximum value of the past historical period. Emergence years of future anthropogenic changes in annual average precipitation (Pav) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (P1d) were ...
Atmospheric dynamicsStatistics
10.1038/S41612-025-01128-3
ISSN:2397-3722

Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming

Guojian WangAgus Santoso
Nature Climate Change
2026
2026/6/25
00 p.1-4
Tropical climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Niño/Niña variability, has long governed global interannual climate fluctuations. Understanding how their influence may change in the next few decades is critically important for climate predic...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-026-02684-Z
ISSN:1758-678X

Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections

Claudia SimoloSusanna Corti
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
2025/2/28
Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The increasing frequency of extreme hot events poses significant societal and scientific challenges due to their adverse impacts on human and natural systems, compounded by their unpredictable nature. Climate models are essential for investigating root causes and anticipating long-term changes, yet ...
Natural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02133-3
ISSN:2662-4435

Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate

Serena LipariKarthik BalaguruJulian RiceSha FengWenwei Xu7
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
2024/12/9
Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for offshore wind energy development. Assessing the impact of projected climate change on tropical cyclones, and consequently on offshore wind resources...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-024-01887-6
ISSN:2662-4435

Vegetation resistance to compound drought and heatwave events buffers the spatial shift velocities of vegetation vulnerability

Wenbo YanJian ZhouXiaopeng WangJinyi LuoFeiling Yang6
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
2025/4/25
Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Global warming is increasing compound drought and heatwave events. This elevates vegetation loss probability. Despite spatial shifts in vegetation loss probability being crucial for predicting spatial redistribution patterns of vegetation vulnerability across terrestrial ecosystems, they remain poor...
Climate-change ecology
10.1038/S43247-025-02298-X
ISSN:2662-4435

The phase change in the annual cycle of sea surface temperature

Fucheng YangZhaohua Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/2/27
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
In recent decades, many research efforts focused on global climate change, multidecadal, decadal, interannual variability, and the increasing extreme events of sea surface temperature. In contrast, the continuous evolution of the reference frame, the annual cycle of SST used to quantify the aforemen...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-024-00591-8
ISSN:2397-3722

Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply

Philip D. A. KraaijenbrinkEmmy E. StigterTandong YaoWalter W. Immerzeel
Nature Climate Change
2021
2021/6/24
00 p.1-7
Streamflow in high-mountain Asia is influenced by meltwater from snow and glaciers, and determining impacts of climate change on the region’s cryosphere is essential to understand future water supply. Past and future changes in seasonal snow are of particular interest, as specifics at the scale of t...
Cryospheric scienceHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-021-01074-X
ISSN:1758-678X

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Qinxue GuMelissa GervaisGokhan DanabasogluWho M. KimFrederic Castruccio7
Nature Communications
2024
2024/5/17
Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomi...
Climate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-48401-2
ISSN:2041-1723

Intensification of El Niño-induced atmospheric anomalies under greenhouse warming

Kaiming HuGang HuangPing HuangYu KosakaShang-Ping Xie
Nature Geoscience
2021
2021/4/15
Vol.14 No.6 p.377-382
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on global climate and ecosystems. Determining how the ENSO responds to greenhouse warming is a crucial issue in climate science. Despite recent progress in understanding, the responses of important ENSO characteristics, such as air tem...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-021-00730-3
ISSN:1752-0894

Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific

Knut von SalzenAyodeji AkingunolaJason N. S. ColeRuth A. R. DigbySarah J. Doherty9
Nature Communications
2025
2025/11/5
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Over the past several decades, the proportion of solar radiation reflected back into space has declined, accelerating the accumulation of heat within the Earth system. Here we show that the marine cloud reflectivity decreased on average by 2.8 ± 1.2% per decade in the combined North Atlantic and Nor...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-65127-X
ISSN:2041-1723

Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates

Yanbin XuWenjun ZhuDhrubajyoti SamantaBenjamin P. Horton
Nature Climate Change
2026
2026/1/9
Vol.16 No.2 p.148-154
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income P...
Environmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02534-4
ISSN:1758-678X

The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China

Fangjin XuQingxu HuangHuanbi YueXingyun FengHaoran Xu8
Nature Communications
2023
2023/8/26
Vol.14 No.1 p.1-13
Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths att...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactEpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S41467-023-40908-4
ISSN:2041-1723

Midlatitude mesoscale thermal Air-sea interaction enhanced by greenhouse warming

Xiaohui MaXingzhi ZhangLixin WuZhili TangPeiran Yang12
Nature Communications
2024
2024/9/4
Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
The influence of greenhouse warming on mesoscale air-sea interactions, crucial for modulating ocean circulation and climate variability, remains largely unexplored due to the limited resolution of current climate models. Additionally, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks for assessing changes i...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-52077-Z
ISSN:2041-1723

Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections

Sebastian SpringerAlessandro LaioVera Melinda GalfiValerio Lucarini
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/5/16
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by M...
Atmospheric dynamicsStatistics
10.1038/S41612-024-00659-5
ISSN:2397-3722

Skillful prediction of length of day one year ahead in multiple decadal prediction systems

Hyunsuk YoonJung ChoiSeok-Woo SonAdam A. Scaife
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/3/14
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Despite a small amplitude, Length of Day (LOD) change, which varies from one year to another due to changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM), determines the accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time calculation. In this study, we examine the prediction skill of LOD and AAM in nine decada...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00616-2
ISSN:2397-3722

Faster dieback of rainforests altering tropical carbon sinks under climate change

Debashis NathReshmita NathWen Chen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
2024/10/6
Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
Carbon sinks in the tropical rainforests are restricting the global warming to attain unprecedented heights. However, deforestation and climate change is switching them to a net carbon source at some of the deforested patches. Using machine learning algorithm we predict that more than 50% of the tro...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00793-0
ISSN:2397-3722

Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability

Wang GuojianCai WenjuSantoso AgusWu LixinFyfe John C.9
Nature Climate Change
2022
2022/6/27
Vol.12 No.7 p.649-654
The Southern Ocean is a primary heat sink that buffers atmospheric warming and has warmed substantially, accounting for an outsized portion of global warming-induced excess heat in the climate system. However, its projected warming is highly uncertain and varies substantially across climate models. ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41558-022-01398-2
ISSN:1758-678X

Thermal adaptation of respiration in terrestrial ecosystems alleviates carbon loss

Xiaoni XuJinquan LiXiangyi LiChangming FangBo Li6
Nature Climate Change
2025
2025/7/18
00 p.1-7
Ecosystem respiration (ER) is the largest contributor to terrestrial carbon loss. ER responds positively to increasing temperature, so a warming world is hypothesized to lead to additional CO2 release, potentially further exacerbating climate warming. The long-term influence of thermal changes on th...
Climate-change ecologyEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41558-025-02377-Z
ISSN:1758-678X

Extreme surface solar ultraviolet radiation events reduce maize yields in China

Haixiang GuanPeng ZhuJianxi HuangZhenong JinYuyang Ma11
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
2025/6/10
Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Over recent decades, changes in atmospheric ozone and climate have substantially altered surface solar ultraviolet radiation, but the impacts of these changes on crop yields remain unclear. Here we analyze climate data and maize yields from 1992 to 2018 across China to quantify how extreme ultraviol...
Climate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02432-9
ISSN:2662-4435

Increased hailstorms in cities through cell merger mechanism across North America and East Asia

Ang ZhouKun ZhaoJohnny C. L. ChanShuguang Wang
Nature Communications
2026
2026/3/14
0
Hailstorms rank among the most destructive extreme weather events globally, causing substantial property damage. While limited case studies suggest that cities may exacerbate hailstorms, the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain because of the complex physical processes. Here, we examine a hailstor...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-026-70826-0
ISSN:2041-1723

Subpolar North Atlantic decadal cooling may have aggravated recent Eastern Siberian wildfires

Yuhao ZengJun WangShangfeng ChenCheng SunChaoyang Wu7
Nature Communications
2025
2025/12/24
0
Recent wildfire outbreaks in Eastern Siberia herald far-reaching impacts on air quality and carbon balance. While anthropogenic warming is identified as the primary driver of increased wildfire risk, the role of internal climate variability remains unclear. Here, we perform an attribution analysis t...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-66520-2
ISSN:2041-1723

Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections

Yunyu TianYiting XuYilin LiangZiqin ZhouKatie M. Susong22
Nature Communications
2025
2025/9/29
Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Global climate variability has been linked with some of the largest dengue outbreaks, including the record-breaking 2023–2024 epidemic, but the understanding of their mechanism and evidence for their association is lacking. By incorporating reported dengue cases and climate data from 57 countries ac...
Ecological epidemiologyInfectious diseases
10.1038/S41467-025-63655-0
ISSN:2041-1723

Attribution of a record-breaking cold event in the historically warmest year of 2023 and assessing future risks

Yangbo YeCheng QianAiguo DaiYuting ZhangJiacheng Jiang6
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
2025/1/13
Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
An unexpected record-breaking cold event struck eastern China in December 2023, causing widespread transportation shutdowns, power supply shortages, and agricultural crop damage. The manner in which such an extraordinary cold event was formed under global warming is unclear, as is the way in which a...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00886-W
ISSN:2397-3722

El Niño-like warming underestimated in a warmer climate due to ENSO rectification effect

Yue ChenPing HuangJun Ying
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
2025/11/17
Vol.8 No.1 p.3700
Whether the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern under global warming resembles El Niño or La Niña remains uncertain, partly due to unrealistically simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in climate models. Here, using a newly defined normalized mean state f...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01250-2
ISSN:2397-3722

Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk

Timothy H. RaupachRaphael PortmannChristian SideriusSteven C. Sherwood
Nature Climate Change
2026
2026/6/3
00 p.1-8
Hailstorms cause damage across the globe and endanger crops, but their changes in a warming climate are not well quantified. Here we apply three hail proxies to an ensemble of global model projections to show divergent changes in hail-prone condition frequency worldwide. Changes depend on whether th...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-026-02660-7
ISSN:1758-678X

Increasingly negative tropical water–interannual CO2 growth rate coupling

Laibao LiuPhilippe CiaisMengxi WuRyan S. PadrónPierre Friedlingstein8
Nature
2023
2023/5/31
00 p.1-6
Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations...
Carbon cycleClimate change
10.1038/S41586-023-06056-X
ISSN:0028-0836

Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming

Yang YunWu LixinCai WenjuJia FanNg Benjamin7
Nature Climate Change
2022
2022/9/1
Vol.12 No.9 p.814-821
The Atlantic Niño/Niña is a dominant mode of interannual variability peaking in boreal summer with substantial climate impacts. How the Atlantic Niño/Niña sea surface temperature (SST) variability may change under greenhouse warming remains unclear. Here we find a robust suppression in future Atlant...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01444-Z
ISSN:1758-678X

Precipitation efficiency constraint on climate change

Li Ryan L.Studholme Joshua H. P.Fedorov Alexey V.Storelvmo Trude
Nature Climate Change
2022
2022/7/7
Vol.12 No.7 p.642-648
Precipitation efficiency (PE) relates cloud condensation to precipitation and intrinsically binds atmospheric circulation to the hydrological cycle. Due to PE’s inherent microphysical dependencies, definitions and estimates vary immensely. Consequently, PE’s sensitivity to greenhouse warming and imp...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41558-022-01400-X
ISSN:1758-678X

Shoreward shift of oceanic mesoscale activity over the last three decades

Shuyi ZhouYihang ZhangHong LiLingxiao LiuEnhui Liao6
Nature Communications
2025
2025/11/24
Vol.16 No.1 p.103810
Oceanic mesoscale activity critically mediates the cross-shelf exchange of heat, nutrients, carbon, and pollutants. While its meridional shifts under global warming are well studied, zonal migration remains unknown. Here, based on multi-source observation and reanalysis datasets, we find that zonal ...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-65359-X
ISSN:2041-1723