NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 5
English
United States, Boulder
Physical Sciences Laboratory
数据描述
The NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset version 5 provides a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis from January 1854 to the present. Derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS), this dataset uses statistical methods to fill missing data on a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid, covering latitudes from 89°N to 89°S and longitudes from 0°E to 358°E. ERSSTv5 improves upon previous versions by incorporating updated data sources, including Argo floats and buoy SST observations, and enhancing spatial and temporal variability through refined statistical methods. The dataset is optimized for long-term global and basin-wide climate studies, offering consistent and reliable temperature records after 1880, despite damping in the early years due to sparse data. It is widely used for understanding historical SST trends, climate research, and applications requiring high-quality, long-term marine datasets.
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2025
•2025/12/24
0Recent wildfire outbreaks in Eastern Siberia herald far-reaching impacts on air quality and carbon balance. While anthropogenic warming is identified as the primary driver of increased wildfire risk, the role of internal climate variability remains unclear. Here, we perform an attribution analysis t...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-66520-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies
Wenju Cai•Yi Liu•Xiaopei Lin•Ziguang Li•Ying Zhang等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole features an anomalously high west-minus-east sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, affecting global extreme weathers. Whether the associated impact spills over to global economies is unknown. Here, we develop a nonlinear and country-hetero...
Climate-change impactsEconomics
10.1038/S41467-024-48509-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Role of Antarctic ozone in shaping East Asian summer precipitation variability
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu•Bin Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Most previous studies on the climatic effects of Antarctic ozone have focused primarily on the Southern Hemisphere. This study suggests that September-October Antarctic ozone anomalies account for approximately 12% of the interannual variability in East Asian summer precipitation. The precipitation ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01116-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation favors more typhoons toward Asian high-latitude cities
Zeming Wu•Chundi Hu•Wenju Cai•Chengyang Zhang•Tao Lian等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/31
0Poleward migration of Northwest Pacific typhoons brings severe impacts on East Asian high-latitude cities, yet early typhoon climate prediction remains a long-standing scientific challenge. Here we reveal a seemingly-familiar-yet-strange climate oscillation phenomenon, which we name Tropical-le...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-67946-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Main drivers of Indian Ocean Dipole asymmetry revealed by a simple IOD model
Soon-Il An•Hyo-Jin Park•Soong-Ki Kim•Wenju Cai•Agus Santoso等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/15
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-7
Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon (IOD) refers to a dominant zonal contrast pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on interannual time scales. Its positive phase, characterized by anomalously warm western TIO and anomalously cold southeastern TIO, is usually ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00422-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Reduced tropical rain-band asymmetry through the seasonal cycle
Pengcheng Zhang•Shang-Ping Xie•Nicholas J. Lutsko•Yuko M. Okumura•Da Yang等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/7/14
•00 p.1-7
The northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is a defining feature of the tropical climate that global models struggle to reproduce. While often attributed to interhemispheric energy imbalance, other processes may also shape its annual-mean structure. Here we use a hierarchy of m...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-026-02046-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Sea surface warming patterns drive hydrological sensitivity uncertainties
Shipeng Zhang•Philip Stier•Guy Dagan•Chen Zhou•Minghuai Wang
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/5/25
•00 p.1-9
The increase in global-mean precipitation with global-mean temperature (hydrological sensitivity; $$\eta$$ ) is constrained by the atmospheric energy budget, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Here we apply warming patch experiments to a climate model to demonstrate that the spatial pattern of sea...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01678-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation
Botao Zhou•Ziyi Song•Zhicong Yin•Xinping Xu•Bo Sun等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/30
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Recent rapid Arctic sea ice loss was documented as combined results from anthropogenic forcing and climate system internal variability. However, the role of internal variability is not well understood. Here, we propose that the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO), an intrinsic atmospheric mode featuring...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-024-47051-8
ISSN:2041-1723
A fresh perspective on ENSO nonlinearity: the ENSO pattern continuum metric
Sulian Thual•Boris Dewitte
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by a zonal (longitudinal) displacement of the background Walker circulation across the equatorial Pacific, or spatial shifting. The warm pool edge position (WPEP) commonly measures the intensity of this shifting. Hereby organizing sea surface ...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01233-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection
Ming Zhao•Thomas Knutson
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/13
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs produce enhanced warming in the eastern Equatorial Pacific (EPAC) and Southern Ocean (SO) warming, while observations s...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00681-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger
Benjamin J. Henley•Helen V. McGregor•Andrew D. King•Ove Hoegh-Guldberg•Ariella K. Arzey等 9 人
Nature
2024
•2024/8/7
•Vol.632 No.8024 p.320-326
Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperat...
Climate changeEnvironmental impactPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41586-024-07672-X
ISSN:0028-0836
Understanding the driving mechanisms behind triple-dip La Niñas: insights from the prediction perspective
Han-Ching Chen•Yu-Heng Tseng•Jo-Hsu Huang•Ping-Han Juang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/16
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
This study investigates the mechanisms and predictability of multi-year La Niña events, focusing on the 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 triple-dip events, using a physically based statistical ENSO prediction model (EPM). The results highlight distinct driving mechanisms behind these two events. The 1998–200...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01004-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Hainan Gong•Kangjie Ma•Bo Liu•Judah Cohen•Lin Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been observed to undergo distinct decadal structural fluctuations that significantly influence regional weather and climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms behind the AO’s spatial nonstationarity is critical for improving climate predictions related to the A...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00805-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Projected reversal of oceanic stable carbon isotope ratio depth gradient with continued anthropogenic carbon emissions
Kwon Eun Young•Timmermann Axel•Tipple Brett J.•Schmittner Andreas
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/3/15
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-12
Paleoceanographic records suggest that the present-day vertical gradient in the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean was reversed during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, an early period of relatively rapid release of carbon into the climate system...
Marine chemistryPalaeoceanography
10.1038/S43247-022-00388-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Increasingly negative tropical water–interannual CO2 growth rate coupling
Laibao Liu•Philippe Ciais•Mengxi Wu•Ryan S. Padrón•Pierre Friedlingstein等 8 人
Nature
2023
•2023/5/31
•00 p.1-6
Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations...
Carbon cycleClimate change
10.1038/S41586-023-06056-X
ISSN:0028-0836
Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming
Crespo Lander R.•Prigent Arthur•Keenlyside Noel•Koseki Shunya•Svendsen Lea等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/9/1
•Vol.12 No.9 p.822-827
The Atlantic Niño is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Niño...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01453-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming
Tao Geng•Fan Jia•Wenju Cai•Lixin Wu•Bolan Gan等 8 人
Nature
2023
•2023/7/26
•Vol.619 No.7971 p.774-781
Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter1–3, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer4–7. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equa...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06236-9
ISSN:0028-0836
Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier
Josef Ludescher•Armin Bunde•Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/22
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. H...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00519-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions
Young-Min Yang•Jongsoo Shin•So-Won Park•Jae-Heung Park•Soon-Il An等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth sy...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPhenologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00674-6
ISSN:2397-3722
The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean
Gengxin Chen•Weiqing Han•Aixue Hu•Gerald A. Meehl•Arnold L. Gordon等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/2/3
•Vol.16 No.3 p.331-340
Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocean exchange—has experienced the strongest freshening in the S...
Climate-change impactsHydrologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-025-02553-1
ISSN:1758-678X
The driving of North American climate extremes by North Pacific stationary-transient wave interference
Mingyu Park•Nathaniel C. Johnson•Thomas L. Delworth
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/25
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-18
Wave interference between transient waves and climatological stationary waves is a useful framework for diagnosing the magnitude of stationary waves. Here, we find that the wave interference over the North Pacific Ocean is an important driver of North American wintertime cold and heavy precipitation...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-51601-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Aerosol emission reductions cause post-2011 rapid warming in the northwestern Pacific
Nan Yang•Yan Xia•Fei Xie•Chuanfeng Zhao•Tianyi Fan等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/25
0The northwestern Pacific has exhibited an anomalously rapid warming since 2011, causing significant climate disasters and marine ecosystem destruction. Yet the drivers of this accelerated warming remain insufficiently understood. Here we find that anthropogenic aerosol mitigation constitutes the pri...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S43247-025-03015-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming
Tao Geng•Wenju Cai•Fan Jia•Lixin Wu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/10
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how EN...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-024-50156-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Bin Wang•Renguang Wu•Zeming Wu等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/9
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by app...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-46543-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Decadal oceanic variability amplified recent heatwave in the Northern Hemisphere
Nan Lei•Xiaodan Guan•Yongkun Xie•Xiaohan Shen•Yuhang Ding等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The persistent increase in heatwaves has caused substantial economic and ecological damage. However, the contribution of decadal oceanic variability to the recent surge in heatwaves remains unclear. Here, using observations and simulations, we demonstrate that oceanic modulation drives decadal heatw...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01179-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate
Zheng-Hang Fu•Dazhi Xi•Shang-Ping Xie•Wen Zhou•Ning Lin等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/7/31
•00 p.1-9
Multiple tropical cyclones can be present concurrently within one ocean basin, and these clusters can induce compound hazards within a short time window. While the western North Pacific has historically been home to most tropical cyclone clusters, how climate change might affect this is unclear. Her...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02397-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Climate models exaggerate greenhouse gas impact on recent interhemispheric temperature patterns and tropical climate
Chengfei He•Amy C. Clement•Mark A. Cane•Alex Gonzalez•Young-Oh Kwon等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/27
•Vol.17 No.1 p.32650
The interhemispheric thermal contrast, defined as the mean sea surface temperature difference between the northern and southern hemispheres, crucially influences tropical climate. Climate models show a positive interhemispheric thermal contrast trend since 1950, with more warming in the northern hem...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-026-69783-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Atlantic multidecadal variability controls Arctic-ENSO connection
Shangfeng Chen•Wen Chen•Renguang Wu•Bin Yu•Hans-F. Graf等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/10
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The springtime Arctic Oscillation (AO), a dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, influences the subsequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by triggering westerly wind bursts over the equatorial western Pacific. It thereby provides a source of predi...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric science
10.1038/S41612-025-00936-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Training machine learning models on climate model output yields skillful interpretable seasonal precipitation forecasts
Gibson Peter B.•Chapman William E.•Altinok Alphan•Delle Monache Luca•DeFlorio Michael J.等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/8/10
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-13
A barrier to utilizing machine learning in seasonal forecasting applications is the limited sample size of observational data for model training. To circumvent this issue, here we explore the feasibility of training various machine learning approaches on a large climate model ensemble, providing a l...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S43247-021-00225-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Sang-Ki Lee•Kyung-Ja Ha•Sang-Wook Yeh等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, by con...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00713-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation
Jeong Yong-Cheol•Yeh Sang-Wook•Lim Young-Kwon•Santoso Agus•Wang Guojian
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/7/8
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-022-00279-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Keith B. Rodgers•Sang-Yoon Jun•Joo-Hong Kim等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of tropical Paci...
AttributionPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02039-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Distinct decadal modulation of Atlantic-Niño influence on ENSO
Jae-Heung Park•Jong-Seong Kug•Young-Min Yang•Mi-Kyung Sung•Sunyong Kim等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/29
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
It is known that winter Atlantic-Niño events can induce the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter with a lag of 1-year during one period. On the other hand, summer Atlantic-Niño events can lead to the ENSO in the subsequent winter with a half-year lag during another period. In ...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00429-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Decelerated Arctic Sea ice loss triggered by accelerated North Pacific warming over the past decade
Lejiang Yu•Haibo Bi•Shiyuan Zhong•Peng Zhang•Cuijuan Sui
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/18
•Vol.6 No.1 p.9220
As global mean surface temperatures have risen rapidly (approaching the 1.5 °C warming threshold), an unexpected slowdown in Arctic summer sea ice loss has been identified. Here, we use observational and numerical analysis and show that this divergence between Arctic and global warming trends stems ...
Ocean sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-02882-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Yi Liu•Wenju Cai•Xiaopei Lin•Ziguang Li•Ying Zhang
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/9/21
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects the macroeconomy, how long the impact lasts, and how the impact may change in a warming climate are imp...
Climate-change impactsEconomics
10.1038/S41467-023-41551-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability
Wenyu Zhou•L. Ruby Leung•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Ming Zhao•Huang-Hsiung Hsu等 9 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/12/15
•00 p.1-10
Since 1980, tropical cyclones have migrated poleward, but it remains unclear whether this trend reflects long-term climate change or temporary climate variability. Here we investigate the drivers of this poleward migration using multiple observational datasets and global models that permit tropical ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41561-025-01866-2
ISSN:1752-0894
Understanding spring forecast El Niño false alarms in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Aaron FZ Levine•Michelle L’Heureux•Caihong Wen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
El Niño is responsible for the largest part of the seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, so forecasting El Niño events correctly is important. However, forecasting El Niño events during boreal spring remains challenging. The dynamical seasonal forecast models of the North American Multi-Model...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-00956-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s
Jo Hyun-Su•Ham Yoo-Geun•Kug Jong-Seong•Li Tim•Kim Jeong-Hwan等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/15
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-8
Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-34721-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Volcanic eruptions disrupt ENSO teleconnections with land summer temperature
Xu Zhang•Jinbao Li•Shang-Ping Xie•Fei Liu•Feng Shi等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/10
•Vol.16 No.1 p.98820
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key ocean-atmospheric mode that affects global weather and climate through atmospheric teleconnections. It remains unclear how robust and stable ENSO teleconnection patterns are under external perturbations. Here, we use observations to demonstrate that v...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41467-025-64879-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Accelerated warming in the North Pacific since 2013
Zeng-Zhen Hu•Michael J. McPhaden•Boyin Huang•Jieshun Zhu•Yunyun Liu
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/7/23
•00 p.1-3
Sea surface temperature increase in the global ocean exhibits marked spatial and temporal variations, with warming in the North Pacific significantly higher than in other basins since 2013. This accelerated warming is related to a shoaling of ocean surface mixed-layer depth and is partially dampened...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-024-02088-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming
Duo Chan•Elizabeth C. Kent•David I. Berry•Peter Huybers
Nature
2019
•2019/7/17
•Vol.571 No.7765 p.393-397
Existing estimates of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate that, during the early twentieth century, the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific oceans warmed by twice the global average, whereas the northwest Pacific Ocean cooled by an amount equal to the global average1–4. Such a heterogeneous pa...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41586-019-1349-2
ISSN:0028-0836
Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations
Brady S. Ferster•Leonard F. Borchert•Juliette Mignot•Matthew B. Menary•Christophe Cassou等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/10/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00489-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Part I observational study on a new mechanism for North Pacific Oscillation influencing the tropics
Zhao Jiuwei•Sung Mi-Kyung•Park Jae-Heung•Luo Jing-Jia•Kug Jong-Seong
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/2/27
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a representative midlatitude atmospheric variability, plays an important role in the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To explain this extratropical–tropical linkage, previous studies have focused on the atmospheric boundary layer processes ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00336-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario
Chao Liu•Soon-Il An•Fei-Fei Jin•Malte F. Stuecker•Wenjun Zhang等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/15
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemb...
Climate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00448-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America
Jueun Lee•S.-Y. Simon Wang•Seok-Woo Son•Daehyun Kim•Jee-Hoon Jeong等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/7
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00608-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic
Thibault Guinaldo•Christophe Cassou•Jean-Baptiste Sallée•Aurélien Liné
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/16
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The year 2023 shattered numerous heat records both globally and regionally. We here focus on the drivers of the unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which started in the North Atlantic Ocean in early summer and persisted later on. Evidence is provided that 2023 should be interp...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-02197-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing
Chengfei He•Amy C. Clement•Sydney M. Kramer•Mark A. Cane•Jeremy M. Klavans等 7 人
Nature
2023
•2023/9/13
•00 p.1-7
The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity1–4. Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among th...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41586-023-06489-4
ISSN:0028-0836
Seasonal phase change of the North Atlantic Tripole Sea surface temperature predicted by air-sea coupling
Haipeng Yu•Shanling Cheng•Jianping Huang•Zeyong Hu•Haojie Wu等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
The North Atlantic Tripole sea surface temperature anomaly (NAT SSTA) is critical for predicting climate in Eurasia. Predictions for summer climate anomalies currently assume the NAT SSTA phase persists from boreal winter through summer. When NAT phase switches, predictions become unreliable. Howeve...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00882-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming
Yiqun Tian•Shineng Hu•Clara Deser
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/14
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) has experienced enhanced surface warming relative to the tropical mean during the past century, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we use single-forcing, large-ensemble coupled model simulations to demonstrate that changes of biomass burning (BMB) aero...
Climate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-023-39204-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Mean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes
Young-Min Yang•Jae-Heung Park•Soon-Il An•Bin Wang•Xiao Luo
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/3/5
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
El Niño profoundly impacts precipitation in high-population regions. This demands an advanced understanding of the changes in El Niño-induced precipitation under the future global warming scenario. However, thus far, consensus is lacking regarding future changes in mid-latitude precipitation influen...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-21787-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Multi-decadal climate variability and satellite biases have amplified model-observation discrepancies in tropical troposphere warming estimates
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Byung-Ju Sohn•Young-Chan Noh•Viju O. John
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/21
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Most coupled model simulations substantially overestimate tropical tropospheric warming trends over the satellite era, undermining the reliability of model-projected future climate change. Here we show that the model-observation discrepancy over the satellite era has arisen in large part from multi-...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-024-01510-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Arctic warming as a potential trigger for the warm blob in the northeast Pacific
Huan-Huan Chen•Yuntao Wang•Xichen Li•Liying Wan•Yeping Yuan等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/19
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
The northeast (NE) Pacific has experienced significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) in recent years, commonly known as “warm blobs.” This study examines the impact of Arctic warming, particularly in the Eastern Siberian-Chukchi Sea (ES-CS) region, on the occurrence of these warm blobs during boreal winte...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-00900-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming
Yongxiao Liang•Nathan P. Gillett•Adam H. Monahan
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/6/5
•Vol.14 No.6 p.608-614
Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between the past global warming trend and projected warming across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in projected warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Internal climate variability in the eastern tropical P...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-024-02017-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Midwinter breakdown of ENSO climate impacts in East Asia
Xin Geng•Kyung-Min Noh•Kyungna Kim•Jong-Seong Kug
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/29
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits remarkable non-stationarity on subseasonal timescales, severely limiting climate predictability. Here, based on observational and reanalysis datasets, we identify a robust subseasonal variability in th...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00474-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño
Qiuyun Wang•Jianping Li•Fei-Fei Jin•Johnny C. L. Chan•Chunzai Wang等 13 人
Nature Communications
2019
•2019/8/22
•Vol.10 No.1 p.1-13
Tropical cyclones (TCs), some of the most influential weather events across the globe, are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, little is known about the feedback of TCs on ENSO. Here, observational and modelling evidence shows that TC activity in the southeastern western N...
Atmospheric dynamicsOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-019-11720-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections
Jian Shi•Hao Huang•Alexey V. Fedorov•Neil J. Holbrook•Yu Zhang等 13 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/4/2
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
Large-scale marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific (NEP), identified here and previously as ‘warm blobs’, have devastating impacts on regional ecosystems. An anomalous atmospheric ridge over the NEP is known to be crucial for maintaining these warm blobs, also causing abnormally cold temperatures...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41467-024-47032-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves
Chi-Cherng Hong•An-Yi Huang•Huang-Hsiung Hsu•Wan-Ling Tseng•Mong-Ming Lu等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/10/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00492-2
ISSN:2397-3722
More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
Shin Na-Yeon•Kug Jong-Seong•Stuecker Malte F.•Jin Fei-Fei•Timmermann Axel等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/12/16
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00324-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate
Ziming Chen•Sandro W. Lubis•Jian Lu•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Huilin Huang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/28
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but i...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01196-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Part II model support on a new mechanism for North Pacific Oscillation influence on ENSO
Zhao Jiuwei•Sung Mi-Kyung•Park Jae-Heung•Luo Jing-Jia•Kug Jong-Seong
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/2/27
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Owing to the significant influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate, how ENSO events are initiated is an intriguing issue. The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a primary atmospheric variability over the midlatitude, is a well-known trigger for ENSO events, but the physical li...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00337-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Enhanced North Pacific Victoria mode in a warming climate
Kai Ji•Jin-Yi Yu•Jianping Li•Zeng-Zhen Hu•Yu-Heng Tseng等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), renowned as the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in the North Pacific and extensively scrutinized for its extensive influence on global climate patterns, stands in stark contrast to the Victoria mode (VM). Traditionally, the VM, representing t...
Climate changeClimate-change impactsOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00599-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Future changes in the wintertime ENSO-NAO teleconnection under greenhouse warming
Xin Geng•Jong-Seong Kug•Yu Kosaka
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/28
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic exhibits strong subseasonal variations, as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response systematically reverses its phase from early to late winter. Based on two sets of atmospheric model simulations in CMIP6 forced by historic...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00627-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas
Bin Wang•Weiyi Sun•Chunhan Jin•Xiao Luo•Young-Min Yang等 12 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/9/18
•00 p.1-7
Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, w...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-023-01801-6
ISSN:1758-678X
Enhanced impact of the Aleutian Low on increasing the Central Pacific ENSO in recent decades
Chen Shangfeng•Chen Wen•Yu Bin•Wu Renguang•Graf Hans-F.等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/4/3
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
In this study, we reveal a marked enhanced impact of the early-spring Aleutian Low (AL) on the following winter El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) after the late-1990s. This enhanced impact of the early-spring AL may have an important contribution to the increased emergence of the central Pacif...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-023-00350-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature
Fukai Liu•Fengfei Song•Yiyong Luo
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/10
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Changes in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) have far-reaching ecological and societal implications. Previous studies have found an intensified SST seasonal cycle under global warming, but whether such changes have emerged in historical records remains largely unknown. Here, we rev...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-48381-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Change of El Niño onset location around 1970
Xiao Pan•Tim Li•Jinhua Yu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
A shift of El Niño onset location from eastern Pacific (EP) to western Pacific (WP) occurred around 1970. It was accompanied by a faster mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in WP and a change of precursory SST and wind anomaly patterns. The eigenvalue analysis of a simple coupled model shows ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00709-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record
Ning Jiang•Congwen Zhu•Michael J. McPhaden•Zeng-Zhen Hu•Tao Lian等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.10120
During the 2023-24 El Niño, the July 2023–June 2024 average global mean surface temperature peaked at 1.58 °C above pre-industrial levels, associated with a record 0.36 °C year-over-year rise. Here we use statistical models and a Green’s Function method to explore the causes for this rise. We show t...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02971-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Breaking the link: warming disrupts early-season rainfall predictability in the Caribbean
Leonardo A. Clarke•Jhordanne J. Jones•Michael A. Taylor•Matthew St. Michael Williams•Tajay Edwards等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/19
•Vol.9 No.1 p.520
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic have historically served as reliable predictors of early-season rainfall across the Caribbean. In particular, rainfall onset has been linked to SSTs exceeding the convective threshold necessary to support deep convection. However, recent...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-026-01325-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
Chung Eui-Seok•Kim Seong-Joong•Timmermann Axel•Ha Kyung-Ja•Lee Sang-Ki等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/4/14
•00 p.1-8
A variety of hypotheses, involving sub-ice-shelf melting, stratospheric ozone depletion and tropical teleconnections, have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion over the period of continuous satellite monitoring and corresponding model–observation discrepancy, but the iss...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-022-01339-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower
Yong Liu•Huijun Wang•Huopo Chen•Zhongshi Zhang•Hua Li等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/5/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analys...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-023-00369-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming
Yang Young-Min•Park Jae-Heung•An Soon-Il•Yeh Sang-Wook•Zhu Zhiwei等 9 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/7/8
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
Over the past half a century, both the Indian Ocean (IO) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) exhibit strong warming trends like a global mean surface temperature (SST). Here, we show that not only simply as a result of increased greenhouse gases, but the IO-NA interaction through atmospheric teleconne...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-31676-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Boosting effect of strong western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the decay of El Niño events
Jia Wu•Hanjie Fan•Shuheng Lin•Wenxiu Zhong•Shan He等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/3
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode is believed to favor the decay of El Niño via modulating the zonal wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, while the contribution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to the following year’s El Niño remains highly controversial. In this study, we use the ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00554-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations
Sebastian Sippel•Elizabeth C. Kent•Nicolai Meinshausen•Duo Chan•Christopher Kadow等 11 人
Nature
2024
•2024/11/20
•Vol.635 No.8039 p.618-624
The observed temperature record, which combines sea surface temperatures with near-surface air temperatures over land, is crucial for understanding climate variability and change1–4. However, early records of global mean surface temperature are uncertain owing to changes in measurement technology an...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-024-08230-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Climatic influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the East Asian winter precipitation
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/8/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The Antarctic ozone hole exerts a substantial impact on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, yet research exploring its potential influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate is limited. This study unveils a significant positive relationship between interannual variations of Antarctic total colum...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00732-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Differential expansion speeds of Indo-Pacific warm pool and deep convection favoring pool under greenhouse warming
Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin•Zhang Banglin•Gan Qiuying•Wang Lei•Qian Weihong等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/11/24
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), which affects the global climate system through supporting tropical convection, has been reported to expand significantly under greenhouse warming. Although early research revealed that the sea surface temperature (SST) threshold for deep convection (σconv) increas...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-022-00315-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023
Shaoyin Wang•Jiping Liu•Wenju Cai•Dongxia Yang•Tobias Kerzenmacher等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/5/8
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
From 2021 to 2023, satellite records reveal that February Antarctic sea ice extent reached record lows in 2022 and 2023. Simultaneously, the Antarctic ice sheet experienced a transient mass gain and rebounded temporarily from a decadal decline since 2002. The reasons behind these dramatic changes ar...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01066-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Allison A. Cluett•Steven J. Bograd•Michael G. Jacox•Mercedes Pozo Buil•Elliott L. Hazen
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/11/7
•00 p.1-8
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance...
Climate-change impactsMarine biologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-025-02482-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row?
Shang-Ping Xie•Ayumu Miyamoto•Pengcheng Zhang•Yu Kosaka•Yu Liang等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/22
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-4
Global surface temperature reached a record high in 2023. Using a global climate model, we show that El Niño along with extratropical variability boosted 2023 to be the hottest year on a background warming of 0.2 °C/decade. Our model initialized in July 2024 correctly predicted that 2024 was on trac...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01006-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea
Zeming Wu•Chundi Hu•Lifei Lin•Weizhen Chen•Lixuan Huang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Herein, we report a strong in-phase covariability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) during October–December of 1979–2019, and which is also the dominant mode of BOB–SCS TC activity, accounting for 35% of the total variances in TC track de...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00506-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere
Kangjie Ma•Hainan Gong•Lin Wang•Bo Liu•Yulan Li等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
In August 2022, unprecedented and long-lasting extreme heatwaves attacked the Northern Hemisphere, with simultaneous record-breaking surface air temperature (SAT) in Eastern Europe (EE), Southern China (SC), and Western North America (WNA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms of these concur...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00828-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez•Nicola Maher
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/13
0Changes in temperature variability affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events, as well as the regional range of temperatures that ecosystems and society need to adapt to. While accurate projections of temperature variability are vital for understanding climate change and its impacts, they ...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-67005-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Sub-seasonal impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on development of the Indian Ocean Dipole
Hyo-Jin Park•Soon-Il An•Jae-Heung Park•Young-Min Yang•Soong-Ki Kim
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/5/15
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
The Indian Ocean Dipole exhibits large variations in its evolution depending on the presence of El Niño, with notable changes in intensity, duration, and peak phase. Here, using a simple Indian Ocean Dipole model and observational-reanalysis datasets, we revealed that Indian Ocean Dipole events co-e...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-02302-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Diversity of La Niña onset
Xiao Pan•Tim Li
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/11
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Three La Niña onset types were identified by the K-means cluster analysis of equatorial sea surface temperature anomaly evolutions during the past 111 years (1910–2020). The first type is characterized by a slow basin-wide transition from a neutral year to La Niña, driven by tropical North Atlantic ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01141-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Extreme coastal El Niño events are tightly linked to the development of the Pacific Meridional Modes
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos•Boris Dewitte•René D. Garreaud•Leandra Loyola
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal impacts for countries along the west coast of South America, as exemplified by the 2017 and 2023 Peru-Ecuador floods. Due to the brev...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00675-5
ISSN:2397-3722