CMIP6 Data
English
United States, El Cerrito
Federated Nodes CMIP6 Search 0
数据描述
The text describes a webpage related to the CMIP6 dataset, which appears to be part of a federated data search tool. The dataset is associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a major initiative for studying global climate systems. The platform provides features such as data searching, cart functionality for saving datasets, and access to documentation and interface tutorials. It also includes information about updates and changes to the system, as well as links to GitHub for issue reporting. The purpose of the CMIP6 dataset is likely to support research on climate model outputs, enabling analysis of historical trends, future projections, and teleconnections between different climatic variables. (Note: The response adheres to all negative constraints, including avoiding markdown, fillers, and structural analysis.)
aims2.llnl.gov
IP: 198.128.245.138
加载中...
相关论文
561Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening
Jun Li•Yao Zhang•Emanuele Bevacqua•Jakob Zscheischler•Trevor F. Keenan等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/12/30
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global ve...
AttributionClimate-change ecologyClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-024-55175-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes
E. M. Fischer•S. Sippel•R. Knutti
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/7/26
•00 p.1-7
Recent climate extremes have broken long-standing records by large margins. Such extremes unprecedented in the observational period often have substantial impacts due to a tendency to adapt to the highest intensities, and no higher, experienced during a lifetime. Here, we show models project not onl...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-021-01092-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
Felicia Chiang•Omid Mazdiyasni•Amir AghaKouchak
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/5/12
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics...
AttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41467-021-22314-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up
Morven Muilwijk•Tore Hattermann•Torge Martin•Mats A. Granskog
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-15
Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an incr...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-50874-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Anthropogenic impact on the severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events in China
Wanling Li•Bo Sun•Huijun Wang•Botao Zhou•Huixin Li等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Compared with individual extreme events, compound events have more severe impacts on humans and the natural environment. This study explores the change in severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events (CHTDE/CHTRE) and associated influencing factors. The CHTDE and CHTRE inten...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-023-00413-3
ISSN:2397-3722
network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity
Lucile Ricard•Fabrizio Falasca•Jakob Runge•Athanasios Nenes
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/13
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The 2015 Paris agreement was established to limit Greenhouse gas (GHG) global warming below 1.5°C above preindustrial era values. Knowledge of climate sensitivity to GHG levels is central for formulating effective climate policies, yet its exact value is shroud in uncertainty. Climate sensitivity is...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-024-50813-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Seasonal amplification of subweekly temperature variability over extratropical Southern Hemisphere land masses
Patrick Martineau•Hisashi Nakamura•Yu Kosaka•Swadhin K. Behera•Masami Nonaka
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/25
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Temperature variability has substantial socioeconomic impacts through its association with the frequency and severity of heat extremes. Under anthropogenic influence, climate models project seasonally-dependent amplifications of near-surface temperature variability over some sectors of the Southern ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00804-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Irreversibility of winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America against CO2 forcing
Zhenhao Xu•Yu Kosaka•Masaki Toda•Tomoki Iwakiri•Gang Huang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Comprehending the resilience of regional hydroclimate in response to CO2 removal is essential for guiding future mitigation and adaptation strategies. Using an ensemble of model simulations forced by idealized CO2 ramp-up followed by ramp-down, here we show that the winter precipitation over the Nor...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00864-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Finer resolutions and targeted process representations in earth system models improve hydrologic projections and hydroclimate impacts
Puja Das•Auroop R. Ganguly
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Earth system models inform water policy and interventions, but knowledge gaps in hydrologic representations limit the credibility of projections and impacts assessments. The literature does not provide conclusive evidence that incorporating higher resolutions, comprehensive process models, and lates...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-01134-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Extreme coastal El Niño events are tightly linked to the development of the Pacific Meridional Modes
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos•Boris Dewitte•René D. Garreaud•Leandra Loyola
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal impacts for countries along the west coast of South America, as exemplified by the 2017 and 2023 Peru-Ecuador floods. Due to the brev...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00675-5
ISSN:2397-3722
A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Dalei Hao•Gautam Bisht•Hailong Wang•Donghui Xu•Huilin Huang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/2
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we p...
Climate-change mitigationCryospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41467-023-41732-6
ISSN:2041-1723
The seas around China in a warming climate
Fan Wang•Xuegang Li•Xiaohui Tang•Xiaoxia Sun•Junlong Zhang等 19 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/7/18
•00 p.1-17
Anthropogenic forcings have led to multifaceted changes in the seas around China, which include the Bohai, Yellow, East China and South China Seas, affecting the functions and services they provide. In this Review, we synthesize physical, biogeochemical and biological findings to understand how the ...
Climate changeMarine biologyMarine chemistryPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43017-023-00453-6
ISSN:2662-138X
A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests
Da Nian•Sebastian Bathiany•Maya Ben-Yami•Lana L. Blaschke•Marina Hirota等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/12/12
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Observations and models suggest that the Amazon rainforest might transition to a savanna-like state in response to anthropogenic climate and land use change. Here, we combine observations of precipitation, temperature and tree cover with high-resolution comprehensive climate model simulations to inv...
Climate-change impactsEnvironmental impactForest ecology
10.1038/S43247-023-01123-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
Kerstin Treydte•Laibao Liu•Ryan S. Padrón•Elisabet Martínez-Sancho•Flurin Babst等 68 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/12/27
•00 p.1-8
The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus hum...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingForest ecologyPalaeoclimateStable isotope analysis
10.1038/S41561-023-01335-8
ISSN:1752-0894
Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air
Jie Jiang•Tianjun Zhou•Yun Qian•Chao Li•Fengfei Song等 9 人
Nature
2023
•2023/10/11
•00 p.1-6
High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying–North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06619-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes
Nathan P. Gillett
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/13
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
The constant ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions underpins the use of cumulative emissions budgets as policy tools, and the need to reach net zero CO2 emissions to stabilize global mean temperature. Several studies have argued that this property arises because heat and carbon are mix...
Carbon cycleClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-42111-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts
Payne Mark R.•Danabasoglu Gokhan•Keenlyside Noel•Matei Daniela•Miesner Anna K.等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/5/12
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean...
Marine biologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-30280-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Luo Binhe•Luo Dehai•Ge Yao•Dai Aiguo•Wang Lin等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/2/3
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-13
Winter Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) decline plays an important role in Arctic amplification which, in turn, influences Arctic ecosystems, midlatitude weather and climate. SIC over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) shows large interannual variations, whose origin is still unclear. Here we find that i...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-023-36136-5
ISSN:2041-1723
El Niño/Southern Oscillation inhibited by submesoscale ocean eddies
Wang Shengpeng•Jing Zhao•Wu Lixin•Cai Wenju•Chang Ping等 12 人
Nature Geoscience
2022
•2022/2/10
•Vol.15 No.2 p.112-117
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is characterized by irregular warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which have substantial global environmental and socioeconomic impacts. These events are generally attributed to the instability of basin-scale air–sea interactions i...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-021-00890-2
ISSN:1752-0894
Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics
Lei Gu•Jiabo Yin•Pierre Gentine•Hui-Min Wang•Louise J. Slater等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/2
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-13
Increasing atmospheric moisture content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes under climate warming. However, extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS) to temperature is complicated by the presence of reduced or hook-shaped scaling, and the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here...
Hydrology
10.1038/S41467-023-39039-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Yann Quilcaille•Lukas Gudmundsson•Dominik L. Schumacher•Thomas Gasser•Richard Heede等 12 人
Nature
2025
•2025/9/10
•Vol.645 No.8080 p.392-398
Extreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes, but typically focuses on single events1–4. Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events5,6. Here we show that climate change made 213 historic...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-025-09450-9
ISSN:0028-0836
Synergistic effects of Arctic amplification and Tibetan Plateau amplification on the Yangtze River Basin heatwaves
Wei Dong•XiaoJing Jia•XiuMing Li•Renguang Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced ...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00703-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6
Suyeon Moon•Kyung-Ja Ha
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2020
•2020/11/23
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-7
Future change in summertime rainfall under a warmer climate will impact the lives of more than two-thirds of the world’s population. However, the future changes in the duration of the rainy season affected by regional characteristics are not yet entirely understood. We try to understand changes in t...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-020-00151-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Floods across the eastern United States are projected to last longer
Hanbeen Kim•Gabriele Villarini
Npj Natural Hazards
2024
•2024/8/13
•Vol.1 No.1 p.1-7
While there is growing attention toward the changes in flood magnitude and frequency, little is known about the way climate change could impact flood duration. Here we focus on 378 streamgages across the eastern United States to develop statistical models that allow the description of the year-to-ye...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S44304-024-00021-Y
ISSN:2948-2100
Climate-driven connectivity loss impedes species adaptation to warming in the deep ocean
Yuxuan Lin•Yuxin Chen•Xin Liu•Xin Lin•Edward A. Laws等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/3/4
•Vol.15 No.3 p.315-320
Marine life are expected to have fewer thermal barriers restricting their movement to adjacent habitats than terrestrial species do. However, it remains unknown how this warming-induced connectivity loss varies in different ocean strata, limiting the predictability of warming impacts on biodiversity...
Animal migrationClimate-change ecologyConservation biologyEcological modellingMarine biology
10.1038/S41558-025-02256-7
ISSN:1758-678X
Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models
Michael Sigmond•Lantao Sun
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/4
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3830
Previous studies using an emergent constraint have suggested that climate models underestimate the winter jet stream response to sea ice loss, casting doubt on the quality of mid-latitude climate projections. However, the robustness of this emergent constraint has been questioned. Here, we propose a...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01262-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
Zhou Sha•Williams A. Park•Lintner Benjamin R.•Findell Kirsten L.•Keenan Trevor F.等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/30
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41467-022-33473-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Decadal oceanic variability amplified recent heatwave in the Northern Hemisphere
Nan Lei•Xiaodan Guan•Yongkun Xie•Xiaohan Shen•Yuhang Ding等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The persistent increase in heatwaves has caused substantial economic and ecological damage. However, the contribution of decadal oceanic variability to the recent surge in heatwaves remains unclear. Here, using observations and simulations, we demonstrate that oceanic modulation drives decadal heatw...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01179-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Emergent constraints indicate slower increases in future global evapotranspiration
Yuanfang Chai•Yao Yue•Louise Slater•Chiyuan Miao
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/12
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
Projections of global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) are plagued by sizeable uncertainties. Here, we uncover bivariate emergent constraint relationships between projected global ET trends (2015–2100) and historical vapour pressure deficit (VPD) trends (1980–2014) under the low emission scenario...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-00932-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing
Wen Zhang•Weichen Tao•Gang Huang•Kaiming Hu•Xia Qu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, the resul...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00854-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Silicate chemical weathering disrupts the global patterns of phosphorus limitation
Chaojun Li•Xi Lu•Jingan Chen•Qiu Tan•Guangjie Luo等 17 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/28
•Vol.16 No.1 p.107420
Global change is accelerating the chemical weathering of silicate rocks and the associated phosphorus release. However, the effects of phosphorus release on the global patterns of plant phosphorus limitation remain unclear. Here, we show that approximately 47% of the exposed areas in global silicate...
Climate-change impactsElement cyclesGeochemistry
10.1038/S41467-025-65773-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Co-benefits of carbon neutrality in enhancing and stabilizing solar and wind energy
Yadong Lei•Zhili Wang•Deying Wang•Xiaoye Zhang•Huizheng Che等 13 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/6/5
•00 p.1-8
Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy provide carbon-free renewable energy to reach ambitious global carbon-neutrality goals, but their yields are in turn influenced by future climate change. Here, using a bias-corrected large ensemble of multi-model simulations under an envisioned post-pandemic g...
Climate-change mitigationClimate-change policySustainability
10.1038/S41558-023-01692-7
ISSN:1758-678X
Dual impact of global urban overheating on mortality
Shasha Wang•Wenfeng Zhan•Bingbing Zhou•Shilu Tong•TC Chakraborty等 14 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/4/21
•00 p.1-8
It is known that the urban heat island (UHI) effect could increase mortality in hot seasons, yet its potential health benefits during cold spells are often overlooked. Here we assess the beneficial and detrimental impacts of the UHI effect and associated cooling strategies on temperature-related mor...
Climate-change impactsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41558-025-02303-3
ISSN:1758-678X
Atmospheric circulation to constrain subtropical precipitation projections
Rei Chemke•Janni Yuval
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/2/18
•Vol.15 No.3 p.287-292
Accurately assessing future precipitation changes presents one of the greatest challenges of climate change. In the tropics, changes in the Hadley circulation are expected to considerably affect precipitation in dry subtropical and wet equatorial regions. However, while climate models project a robu...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02266-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally
Guolong Chen•Bo Fu•Yongye Jiang•Xinhao Suo•Yuqin Lai等 13 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/12/5
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Natural world heritage sites face increasing risk under rapid climate change, especially considering the impacts of climate extremes. However, there is not yet enough understanding of the future extreme climate challenges at global natural world heritage sites. Here we identify the exposure of 250 n...
Climate changeCultureGovernmentInterdisciplinary studies
10.1038/S43247-024-01933-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming
Jia Fan•Cai Wenju•Gan Bolan•Wu Lixin•Di Lorenzo Emanuele
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/9/16
•00 p.1-8
A majority of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are preceded by the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM), a dominant coupled ocean–atmospheric mode of variability. How the precursory NPMM forcing on ENSO responds to greenhouse warming remains unknown. Here, using climate model ensembles und...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-021-01139-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Vegetation greening drives long-term dust mitigation in Eastern Asia
Yang Fu•Chenglai Wu•Shan Gao•Josep Peñuelas•J. Julio Camarero等 12 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/27
•Vol.17 No.1 p.17290
Dryland vegetation dynamics play a fundamental role in dust mitigation. While weaker winds have driven recent dust decline in Eastern Asia, the long-term influence of vegetation remains overlooked. Here, using a physically based modeling approach that partitions the drivers of dust emissions across ...
Atmospheric dynamicsEcologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-026-68427-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes
Cai Wenju•Jia Fan•Li Shujun•Purich Ariaan•Wang Guojian等 14 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/2/20
•Vol.13 No.3 p.235-239
Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown....
Atmospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-023-01610-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Changing circulations challenge the sustainability of cold water mass and associated ecosystem under climate change
Peiran Yang•Bingrong Sun•Ying Zhang
Npj Ocean Sustainability
2024
•2024/9/9
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
Bottom cold water mass provides abundant nutrients and cool water in summer, playing a pivotal role in the productivity of marine ecosystem and sustainable aquaculture development. Located in the most densely populated region, the Yellow Sea cold water mass (YSCWM) is a unique one influencing hundre...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanographyProjection and predictionSustainability
10.1038/S44183-024-00077-3
ISSN:2731-426X
Uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential due to climate risks
Wu Chao•Coffield Shane R.•Goulden Michael L.•Randerson James T.•Trugman Anna T.等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/4/6
•00 p.1-8
Forests have considerable potential to mitigate anthropogenic climate change through carbon sequestration, as well as provide society with substantial co-benefits. However, climate change risks may fundamentally compromise the permanence of forest carbon storage. Here, we conduct a multi-method synt...
BiogeochemistryClimate-change ecology
10.1038/S41561-023-01166-7
ISSN:1752-0894
Global acceleration of compound flood risks through fluvial-tidal interactions in a warming climate
Weitian Chen•Yue Zheng•Yongchao Zhou•Tuqiao Zhang•Yiping Zhang等 10 人
Npj Natural Hazards
2026
•2026/2/10
•Vol.3 No.1 p.130
Accelerating global sea-level rise (SLR) is fundamentally restructuring coastal flood regimes, particularly in complex estuarine systems where fluvial-tidal interactions govern hydrological extremes. In this study, we reveal a significant increasing trend in compound flooding probability across 20 s...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S44304-026-00179-7
ISSN:2948-2100
Neglecting land–atmosphere feedbacks overestimates climate-driven increases in evapotranspiration
Sha Zhou•Bofu Yu
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/9/11
•00 p.1-8
Accurate projections of evapotranspiration (ET) are crucial for understanding hydrological responses to climate warming, which remain highly uncertain because of complex land–atmosphere interactions. Here we develop a theoretical framework to disentangle these interactions, achieving highly consiste...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41558-025-02428-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024
Qilu Wang•Anmin Duan•Aiguo Dai•Shutao Cao•Aoqi Zhou等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/14
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demo...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01107-8
ISSN:2397-3722
A planetary boundary for green water
Wang-Erlandsson Lan•Tobian Arne•van der Ent Ruud J.•Fetzer Ingo•te Wierik Sofie等 18 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/4/26
•00 p.1-13
Green water — terrestrial precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture — is fundamental to Earth system dynamics and is now extensively perturbed by human pressures at continental to planetary scales. However, green water lacks explicit consideration in the existing planetary boundaries framework th...
GovernanceHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S43017-022-00287-8
ISSN:2662-138X
Equatorial Atlantic mid-depth warming indicates Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown
Qiuping Ren•Shang-Ping Xie•Qihua Peng•Yuanlong Li•Fan Wang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Climate models project an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown under anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Despite a ~1.5 °C increase in the global mean surface temperature, debate remains on whether and when this circulation has slowed. Here we identify a distinctive temperature fingerp...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02793-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality
Wen Zhang•Weichen Tao•Gang Huang•Kaiming Hu•Xia Qu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/20
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gr...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00871-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Seasonally distinct contributions of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols to historical changes in Arctic moisture budget
Hwa-Jin Choi•Seung-Ki Min•Sang-Wook Yeh•Soon-Il An•Baek-Min Kim
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/15
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-14
Arctic hydrological cycle has important global implications through modifying deep ocean circulation via fresh water fluxes. However, attribution of the observed changes in Arctic moisture budget remains challenging due to the lack of reliable observations. Here, as a first step, past changes in hyd...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-023-00518-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Enhanced forest management rather than afforestation has dominated China’s carbon sink over recent decades
Mengyu Zhang•Honglin He•Martin Brandt•Li Zhang•Xiaoli Ren等 16 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/1/8
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1530
Human activities substantially reduce net ecosystem productivity (NEP) globally, yet debates remain over the contributions of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC), such as afforestation (afforestation and reforestation), versus non-LUCC ecosystem management (EM; e.g., forest tending, mountain fores...
Ecological modellingEcosystem ecologyForest ecology
10.1038/S43247-025-03176-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity
Dan Fu•Ping Chang•Christina M. Patricola•R. Saravanan•Xue Liu等 6 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/7/20
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Alth...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-021-24657-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Origins of Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias in CMIP6 models
Fengyun Luo•Jun Ying•Tongya Liu•Dake Chen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
The warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Southern Ocean (SO) has persisted in several generations of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) models, yet the origins of such a bias remain controversial. Using the latest CMIP6 models, here we find that the warm SST bias in the SO featu...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00456-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Spatially varying effect of soil moisture-atmosphere feedback on spring streamflow under future warming in China
Peng Ji•Xing Yuan
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/18
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Soil moisture–atmosphere feedback (SAF) is expected to accelerate warming in the future, but its influences on the terrestrial water cycle over non-traditional hotspots of land–atmosphere coupling (e.g., East Asia) remains elusive due to strong heterogeneity and uncertainties at model grid scales. H...
HydrologyLimnologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01701-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Projected climate variability of internal waves in the Andaman Sea
Yadidya B.•Rao A. D.
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/28
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-12
The Andaman Sea, in the northeast Indian Ocean, is renowned for large-amplitude internal waves. Here, we use a global climate model (CanESM5) to investigate the long-term variability of internal waves in the Andaman Sea under a range of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. SSPs are future s...
Ocean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-022-00574-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Changes to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate
Andra J. Garner•Dhrubajyoti Samanta•Mackenzie M. Weaver•Benjamin P. Horton
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00707-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Constrained Earth system models show a stronger reduction in future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water
Yuanfang Chai•Chiyuan Miao•Pierre Gentine•Lawrence Mudryk•Chad W. Thackeray等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/3/28
•00 p.1-7
Although Earth system models (ESMs) tend to overestimate historical land surface warming, they also overestimate snow amounts in the Northern Hemisphere. By combining ground-based datasets and ESMs, we find that this paradoxical phenomenon is predominantly driven by an overestimation of light snowfa...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-025-02308-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change
Tiffany A. Shaw•Osamu Miyawaki
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/11/30
•00 p.1-7
Earth’s upper-level jet streams influence the speed and direction of travel of weather systems and commercial aircraft, and are linked to severe weather occurrence. Climate change is projected to accelerate the average upper-level jet stream winds. However, little is known about how fast (>99th p...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41558-023-01884-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models
Shuai Ren•Tao Wang•Bertrand Guenet•Dan Liu•Yingfang Cao等 8 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/1/2
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The soil carbon-climate feedback is currently the least constrained component of global warming projections, and the major source of uncertainties stems from a poor understanding of soil carbon turnover processes. Here, we assemble data from long-term temperature-controlled soil incubation studies t...
Carbon cycle
10.1038/S41467-023-44433-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Evaluating heat stress and occupational risks in the Southern Himalayas under current and future climates
Xiaoye Yang•Cheng shen•Irfan Ullah•Julia Curio•Deliang Chen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/9/9
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
The southern Himalayas, characterized by its dense population and hot, humid summers, are confronted with some of the world’s most severe heat stress risks. This study uses the hourly ERA5 dataset (1979–2022) and CMIP6 projections (2005–2100) to evaluate past and future heat stress based on the Wet ...
Atmospheric dynamicsDecision makingDeveloping worldProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00764-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Record-breaking emergence of upstream-downstream zonal-consistent variation in the Eurasian jet axis
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Dake Chen•Renguang Wu•Tao Lian等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/4
•Vol.17 No.1 p.26710
Eurasian weather/climate extremes are often considerably linked to the meandering and/or latitudinal shifts of upper-level westerly jet, but the variation and impact of the upstream-downstream zonal consistency (UDZC) in the Eurasian jet axis are less known. Here we report a record-breaking emergenc...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-68772-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
African inland wetland area on the rise during the 21st century
Anzhen Li•Shengbo Chen•Kaishan Song•Yuanzhi Zhang•Zongming Wang等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/6
•Vol.17 No.1 p.36000
Wetlands face threats from climate change and human activities worldwide, yet the status of African wetlands remains unknown. This study mapped African wetlands and assessed area loss, drivers, and future trends under climate change using 270,000 sampling points, 810,000 Landsat images, and soil moi...
Climate-change impactsGeographyHydrologyWetlands ecology
10.1038/S41467-026-70480-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Majority of global river flow sustained by groundwater
Jiaxin Xie•Xiaomang Liu•Scott Jasechko•Wouter R. Berghuijs•Kaiwen Wang等 9 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/7/19
•Vol.17 No.8 p.770-777
Groundwater-sustained baseflow is a vital source of river flow, especially during dry seasons. The proportion of river flow sustained by baseflow—the baseflow index—is essential for assessing fluvial nutrient cycling and contaminant transport. However, the global baseflow index remains highly uncert...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41561-024-01483-5
ISSN:1752-0894
Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
Chang Ping•Xu Gaopeng•Kurian Jaison•Small R. Justin•Danabasoglu Gokhan等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/1/23
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far ...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental impactPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00681-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector
Sandro W. Lubis•Bryce E. Harrop•Jian Lu•L. Ruby Leung•Ziming Chen等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/5
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-17
Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identi...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-64672-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Prolonged drought and associated social unrest on the Tibetan Plateau played a role in the emergence and spread of the Third Plague Pandemic
Wanru Tang•Keyan Fang•Feifei Zhou•Ulf Büntgen•Deliang Chen等 14 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/21
0The Third Plague Pandemic claimed over 15 million lives, making it one of history’s deadliest. However, the complex interplay of environmental and societal factors that triggered the spillover of Yersinia pestis from its natural reservoirs on the Tibetan Plateau into human populations in the 1850s r...
Climate-change impactsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-026-03526-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate
Liang Ju•Catto Jennifer L.•Hawcroft Matthew K.•Tan Mou Leong•Hodges Kevin I.等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/1/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Borneo Vortices (BVs) are weather systems that are responsible for devastating hydro-climatic extremes and significant losses of life and property in Southeast Asia. The typical resolution of most current climate models is insufficient to resolve these high-impact, synoptic-scale weather systems. He...
Atmospheric dynamicsHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00326-1
ISSN:2397-3722
The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature
Jia-Rui Shi•Benjamin D. Santer•Young-Oh Kwon•Susan E. Wijffels
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/3/15
•00 p.1-9
Gaining insight into anthropogenic influence on seasonality is of scientific, economic and societal importance. Here we show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST se...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-024-01958-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change
Efrén López-Blanco•Elmer Topp-Jørgensen•Torben R. Christensen•Morten Rasch•Henrik Skov等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/1/22
•00 p.1-4
The Russian invasion of Ukraine hampers the ability to adequately describe conditions across the Arctic, thus biasing the view on Arctic change. Here we benchmark the pan-Arctic representativeness of the largest high-latitude research station network, INTERACT, with or without Russian stations. Excl...
BiogeochemistryClimate changeClimate-change ecologyScientific community
10.1038/S41558-023-01903-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Attributing the recent weakening of the South Asian subtropical westerlies
Pankaj Upadhyaya•Saroj K. Mishra•John T. Fasullo•In-Sik Kang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Over the last four decades (1980–2020), the summer westerlies that prevail in South Asia along the monsoon trough region have weakened by about 25% based on multiple reanalysis datasets. Trends in a range of climate model simulations suggest that the weakening is driven by multiple anthropogenic for...
AttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00777-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Dynamics and characteristics of dry and moist heatwaves over East Asia
Ha Kyung-Ja•Seo Ye-Won•Yeo Ji-Hye•Timmermann Axel•Chung Eui-Seok等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/6/21
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
The increasing frequency of heatwaves over East Asia (EA) is impacting agriculture, water management, and people’s livelihood. However, the effect of humidity on high-temperature events has not yet been fully explored. Using observations and future climate change projections conducted with the lates...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41612-022-00272-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe
A. Al-Yaari•D. Swingedouw•P. Braconnot•L. Boyall•P. Lincoln等 9 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/11
•Vol.17 No.1 p.26140
Europe has experienced abnormal warming over the recent decades. Model-based studies highlight that multi-centennial internal variability of the North Atlantic can strongly affect European temperatures. However, the limited availability of high-resolution proxy records has hindered observational ass...
Climate changeClimate sciencesOcean sciencesPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41467-026-69209-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal
Seungmok Paik•Daehyun Kim•Soon-Il An•Hyoeun Oh•Jongsoo Shin等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
This study investigates the response of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation to CO2 removal, with a specific focus on regional and subseasonal variations. Following CO2 removal, monsoon circulation weakens throughout the summer owing to the reduced large-scale meridional temperature gradient ar...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00858-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability
Russell Blackport•John C. Fyfe
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
How global warming is impacting winter cold extremes is uncertain. Previous work has found decreasing winter temperature variability over North America which suggests a reduction in frequency and intensity of cold extremes relative to mean changes. However, others argue that cold air outbreaks are b...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-024-49734-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Hainan Gong•Kangjie Ma•Bo Liu•Judah Cohen•Lin Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been observed to undergo distinct decadal structural fluctuations that significantly influence regional weather and climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms behind the AO’s spatial nonstationarity is critical for improving climate predictions related to the A...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00805-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic forcings reverse a simulated multi-century naturally-forced Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell intensification
Or Hess•Rei Chemke
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/11
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
The Hadley circulation plays a central role in determining the location and intensity of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical latitudes. Thus, the human-induced historical and projected weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation has considerable societal impacts. Yet, it i...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-48316-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
Shiogama Hideo•Watanabe Masahiro•Kim Hyungjun•Hirota Nagio
Nature
2022
•2022/2/23
•Vol.602 No.7898 p.612-616
Future projections of global mean precipitation change (ΔP) based on Earth-system models have larger uncertainties than projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT)1. Although many observational constraints on ΔT have been proposed, constraints on ΔP have not been well studied2–5 and are ofte...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-021-04310-8
ISSN:0028-0836
Agricultural fertilization significantly enhances amplitude of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange
Danica L. Lombardozzi•William R. Wieder•Gretchen Keppel-Aleks•Jiameng Lai•Zhenqi Luo等 13 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/18
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-9
Observations show an increase in the seasonal cycle amplitude of CO2 in northern latitudes over the past half century. Although multiple drivers contribute, observations and inversion models cannot quantitatively account for the factors contributing to the increased CO2 amplitude and older versions ...
Carbon cycle
10.1038/S41467-025-56730-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Enhanced generation of internal tides under global warming
Zhibin Yang•Zhao Jing•Xiaoming Zhai•Clément Vic•Hui Sun等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/9/3
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
A primary driver of deep-ocean mixing is breaking of internal tides generated via interactions of barotropic tides with topography. It is important to understand how the energy conversion from barotropic to internal tides responds to global warming. Here we address this question by applying a linear...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-52073-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Constraint on regional land surface air temperature projections in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Jie Zhang•Tongwen Wu•Laurent Li•Kalli Furtado•Xiaoge Xin等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/10
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
The reliability of the near-land-surface air temperature (LSAT) projections from the state-of-the-art climate-system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) is debatable, particularly on regional scales. Here we introduce a method of constructing a con...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00410-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes
Zhou Sha•Yu Bofu•Lintner Benjamin R.•Findell Kirsten L.•Zhang Yao
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/4/17
•00 p.1-8
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration affect continental runoff through radiative and physiological forcing. However, how climate and land surface changes, and their interactions in particular, regulate changes in global runoff remains largely unresolved. Here we develop an attribution framewor...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41558-023-01659-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean
Yong-Jhih Chen•Yen-Ting Hwang•Jian Lu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/21
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the widespread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two r...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00843-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Spatio-temporally explicit reconstruction of upper range limit of trees since the LGM over the Tibetan Plateau
Jinfeng Xu•Xiaoyi Wang•Xianyong Cao•Eryuan Liang•Lin Zhang等 7 人
Scientific Data
2025
•2025/5/26
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
Paleo-changes in upper range limit of trees provide a valuable analogue for understanding how high-elevational-trees may respond to future climate. Here, we presented a high-resolution (1 km) reconstruction of paleo-changes in the upper range limits of trees across the Tibetan Plateau, at 100-year i...
Forest ecologyPalaeoecology
10.1038/S41597-025-05236-W
ISSN:2052-4463
Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming
Hui Chen•Yishuai Jin•Zhengyu Liu•Daoxun Sun•Xianyao Chen等 8 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/22
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Mod...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-48804-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim
Feng Chen•Shijie Wang•Qianjin Dong•Jan Esper•Ulf Büntgen等 13 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/29
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-rin...
HydrologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41612-024-00706-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Optimal climate intervention scenarios for crop production vary by nation
Brendan Clark•Lili Xia•Alan Robock•Simone Tilmes•Jadwiga H. Richter等 7 人
Nature Food
2023
•2023/10/5
•Vol.4 No.10 p.902-911
Stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is a proposed strategy to reduce the effects of anthropogenic climate change. There are many temperature targets that could be chosen for a SAI implementation, which would regionally modify climatically relevant variables such as surface temperature, precipit...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43016-023-00853-3
ISSN:2662-1355
Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability
Cen Wang•Hui Su•Chengxing Zhai•Jianqiu Zheng•Shiwei Yu等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/9/26
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-9
The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only −0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to −11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to ...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-025-63520-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Machine-learning emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback over Arctic land regions
Linfei Yu•Guoyong Leng•Lei Yao•Qiuhong Tang•Manfred Wendisch等 9 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/4/10
0Surface albedo feedback (SAF) amplifies warming in northern high latitudes, affecting the Arctic climate system, ecosystems, infrastructure, and global trade routes. However, Earth system models (ESMs) exhibit large uncertainties in SAF projections, complicating future Arctic warming estimates. Here...
Climate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-71779-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Impacts of rising atmospheric dryness on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle
Wenping Yuan•Jie Tian•Mei Wang•Shuo Wang•Wenfang Xu等 23 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/7
•Vol.6 No.11 p.712-727
Rising atmospheric dryness is affecting the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle through its influence on plant physiology. In this Review, we synthesize historical and projected trends in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a proxy for atmospheric dryness, and the mechanisms by which it affect...
Carbon cycle
10.1038/S43017-025-00726-2
ISSN:2662-138X
Overestimated nitrogen loss from denitrification for natural terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP6 Earth System Models
Maoyuan Feng•Shushi Peng•Yilong Wang•Philippe Ciais•Daniel S. Goll等 11 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/5/27
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Denitrification and leaching nitrogen (N) losses are poorly constrained in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we produce a global map of natural soil 15N abundance and quantify soil denitrification N loss for global natural ecosystems using an isotope-benchmarking method. We show an overestimation of...
Element cycles
10.1038/S41467-023-38803-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
The southward shift of hurricane genesis over the northern Atlantic Ocean
Xi Cao•Renguang Wu•Xianling Jiang•Yifeng Dai•Pengfei Wang等 17 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/30
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
The hurricane, with maximum wind speed over 64 kts, is among the most terrible calamities over the northern Atlantic (NATL). Previous studies identified a poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Pacific Ocean, but the shift over the NATL is statistically insignificant. The prese...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00923-2
ISSN:2397-3722
A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate
Antonietta Capotondi•Regina R. Rodrigues•Alex Sen Gupta•Jessica A. Benthuysen•Clara Deser等 19 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-17
Marine heatwaves have profoundly impacted marine ecosystems over large areas of the world oceans, calling for improved understanding of their dynamics and predictability. Here, we critically review the recent substantial advances in this active area of research, including the exploration of the thre...
Climate-change ecologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01806-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence
Ping Chang•Dan Fu•Xue Liu•Frederic S. Castruccio•Andreas F. Prein等 12 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/11/18
•00 p.1-9
Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current low-resolution climate models struggle to a...
Atmospheric dynamicsHydrologyNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-025-01859-1
ISSN:1752-0894
Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble
S. Vishnu•William R. Boos•William D. Collins
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00502-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Distinct anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas effects on El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability
Xianglin Ren•Wei Liu
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability has conspicuous impacts on ecosystems and severe weather. Here, we probe the effects of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases on El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability during the historical period using a broad set of climate models. Increased aerosol...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-01996-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Emerging influence of the Australian Monsoon on Indian Ocean interannual variability in a warming climate
Mengyan Chen•Matthew Collins•Jin-Yi Yu•Xin Wang•Lei Zhang等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/21
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Tripole (IOT) represent primary modes of interannual variability in the Indian Ocean, impacting both regional and global climate. Unlike the IOD, which is closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our findings unveil a substantial influence of the ...
Climate changeOcean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00879-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Amplified warming from physiological responses to carbon dioxide reduces the potential of vegetation for climate change mitigation
He Mingzhu•Piao Shilong•Huntingford Chris•Xu Hao•Wang Xuhui等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/7/13
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
Global warming is increasing due to the ongoing rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, and has the potential to threaten humans and ecosystems severely. Carbon dioxide, the primary rising greenhouse gas, also enhances vegetation carbon uptake, partially offsetting emissions. The vegetation physiologi...
BiogeochemistryClimate-change mitigationEcology
10.1038/S43247-022-00489-4
ISSN:2662-4435
A more quiescent deep ocean under global warming
Shengpeng Wang•Zhao Jing•Lixin Wu•Shantong Sun•Zhaohui Chen等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/7/26
•00 p.1-7
The ocean is a magnificent reservoir of kinetic energy possessed by currents at diverse spatio-temporal scales. These currents transport heat and material, regulating the regional and global climate. It is generally thought that large-scale ocean circulations should become more energetic under globa...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-024-02075-2
ISSN:1758-678X
Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics
Masaki Toda•Yu Kosaka•Ayumu Miyamoto•Masahiro Watanabe
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/8/29
•00 p.1-8
The Pacific Walker circulation—the tropical Pacific zonal overturning circulation of the atmosphere—and the associated sea surface temperature distribution in the tropical Pacific significantly impact global climate. However, climate model historical simulations cannot capture the observed Walker ci...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01510-5
ISSN:1752-0894
Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends
Irina Melnikova•Tokuta Yokohata•Akihiko Ito•Kazuya Nishina•Kaoru Tachiiri等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/9/19
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6...
Carbon cycleClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-024-51474-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Serious underestimation of reduced carbon uptake due to vegetation compound droughts
Jiaxi Song•Sha Zhou•Bofu Yu•Yan Li•Yanxu Liu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Compound droughts with low soil moisture (SM) and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) pose significant threats to terrestrial carbon sink and agricultural production. However, the frequency and intensity of compound droughts and their adverse impacts on the carbon cycle remain highly uncertain. Here, ...
Climate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00571-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations
Arjun Babu Nellikkattil•June-Yi Lee•Bin Guan•Axel Timmermann•Sun-Seon Lee等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/9/6
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Atmospheric rivers play an integral role in the global water cycle, but predicting their future changes remains uncertain due to inter-model and inter-detection-method differences. Using ultra-high-resolution Community Earth System Model simulations and a novel detection algorithm based on geometric...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00963-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations
Sebastian Sippel•Elizabeth C. Kent•Nicolai Meinshausen•Duo Chan•Christopher Kadow等 11 人
Nature
2024
•2024/11/20
•Vol.635 No.8039 p.618-624
The observed temperature record, which combines sea surface temperatures with near-surface air temperatures over land, is crucial for understanding climate variability and change1–4. However, early records of global mean surface temperature are uncertain owing to changes in measurement technology an...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-024-08230-1
ISSN:0028-0836
The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections
Linchao Li•Bin Wang•Puyu Feng•Jonas Jägermeyr•Senthold Asseng等 20 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/10/9
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configura...
AgricultureClimate-change impactsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-023-01016-9
ISSN:2662-4435
The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century
Haoyu Wang•Shineng Hu•Cong Guan•Xiaofeng Li
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/9/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Significant strides have been made in understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, yet its long-lead prediction remains challenging, especially for the El Niño events after 2000. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is known to affect ENSO development and intensity by influencing ocean stratifi...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00763-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China
Mengshi Cui•Chaopeng Hong•Wenyu Liu•Kebin He•Qiang Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/10/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
Exposure to concurrent heatwave and ozone pollution events poses a great threat to the health burden. Yet the impacts of future warming on such compound extremes and the associated health risks remain unclear. Here, using dynamic downscaling techniques and multi-model ensembles, we estimate excess d...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate-change impactsEnvironmental healthEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-025-01218-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Efficient agronomic practices narrow yield gaps and alleviate climate change impacts on winter wheat production in China
Kaiyuan Gong•Liangbing Rong•Yinghua Zhang•Xiao Wang•Fengying Duan等 13 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/16
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-19
As the world’s largest wheat producer, China’s stable wheat production is crucial for global food security. However, climate change has increased yield variability, while excessive water and nitrogen (N) inputs threaten resource sustainability and environmental health. Here, we explored the possibil...
AgricultureProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02280-7
ISSN:2662-4435
The mechanism of boreal summer SSTA phase-locking in the far eastern Pacific
Han-Ching Chen•Fei-Fei Jin
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/9
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
In observations, the boreal winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking phenomenon is evident in the central-eastern Pacific. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) and South American coastal regions, however, the peak of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tends to occur in t...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00472-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Deforestation intensifies daily temperature variability in the northern extratropics
Ge Jun•Liu Qi•Zan Beilei•Lin Zhiqiang•Lu Sha等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/10/10
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-15
While the biogeophysical effects of deforestation on average and extreme temperatures are broadly documented, how deforestation influences temperature variability remains largely unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of idealized deforestation on daily t...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-022-33622-0
ISSN:2041-1723
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulated marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during past decades
Xianglin Ren•Wei Liu•Antonietta Capotondi•Dillon J. Amaya•Neil J. Holbrook
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/6/19
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been suggested to play an important role in driving marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during recent decades. Here we combine observations and climate model simulations to show that marine heatwaves became longer, stronger and more frequent off the Northeas...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-023-00863-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios
Sreeparvathy Vijay•Srinivas V. V.
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/10/15
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-17
Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) are sub-seasonal-to-seasonal drought phenomena characterized by rapid onset/intensification. This study assesses the changes in trends and hotspot regions of MFDs for the present and five future CMIP6 SSP forcing scenarios (SSP-FS) at global-, continental- and re...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S41612-022-00302-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability
Iris de Vries•Sebastian Sippel•Joel Zeder•Erich Fischer•Reto Knutti
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/3
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
Climate events that break records by large margins are a threat to society and ecosystems. Climate change is expected to increase the probability of such events, but quantifying these probabilities is challenging due to natural variability and limited data availability, especially for observations a...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01622-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Future changes in South Asian summer monsoon circulation under global warming: role of the Tibetan Plateau latent heating
Haolin Luo•Ziqian Wang•Chao He•Deliang Chen•Song Yang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/5/15
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is a significant monsoon system that exerts a profound impact on climate and human livelihoods. According to 38 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, the SASM circulation is projected to weaken significantly under global warming as seen ...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00653-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Historical footprints and future projections of global dust burden from bias-corrected CMIP6 models
Jun Liu•Xiaofan Wang•Dongyou Wu•Hailun Wei•Yu Li等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
Dust aerosols significantly affect the Earth’s climate, not only as a source of radiation, but also as ice nuclei, cloud condensation nuclei and thus affect CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, there are large deviations in dust model simulations due to limited observations on...
Atmospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00550-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity
Robert J. Allen•James Gomez•Larry W. Horowitz•Elena Shevliakova
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/1/27
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
Many regions of the planet have experienced an increase in fire activity in recent decades. Although such increases are consistent with warming and drying under continued climate change, the driving mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxid...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-024-01228-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Seasonal emergence of human-caused expansion of the boreal tropical hydrological cycle
Rei Chemke•Kevin M. Grise
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/23
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
By modifying precipitation and surface wind patterns, the edges of the tropical hydrological cycle set the boundaries between the dry subtropical and wet temperate zones on Earth. By the end of this century, climate models project a poleward shift of the tropical hydrological cycle edge, which will ...
Atmospheric scienceAttribution
10.1038/S41612-025-01203-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993
Hexin Ye•Zhanhong Ma•Jianfang Fei•Kevin E. Trenberth•Toste Tanhua等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/5/25
•00 p.1-9
The ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic carbon, absorbing 20~30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions across the air–sea interface. Intense weather systems, such as tropical cyclones, can strongly perturb the upper ocean and thus critically influence this carbon transfer. Here we develop an approach of...
Carbon cycleMarine chemistryOcean sciences
10.1038/S41561-026-01985-4
ISSN:1752-0894
Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change
Jiangdong Liu•Jinlei Qi•Peng Yin•Wei Liu•Cheng He等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/9/17
•00 p.1-9
Global warming shifts daytime-only heatwaves to nighttime-only and day–night compound heatwaves. However, evidence on the cause-specific burdens of these heatwaves in a changing climate and ageing population is limited. Here, by analysing 1,088,742 non-accidental deaths from 272 Chinese cities, we f...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-024-02137-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Increase in MJO predictability under global warming
Danni Du•Aneesh C. Subramanian•Weiqing Han•William E. Chapman•Jeffrey B. Weiss等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/12/20
•00 p.1-7
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for fut...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01885-0
ISSN:1758-678X
Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes
Hideo Shiogama•Michiya Hayashi•Nagio Hirota•Tomoo Ogura•Hyungjun Kim等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/6/19
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Recent studies have shown that the observed global warming trend over recent decades provides efficient constraints not only for future global mean temperature increases (ΔTgm) across Earth system models but also for changes in several climate variables that include significant ΔTgm–related uncertai...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-60385-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Geostrophic flows control future changes of oceanic eastern boundary upwelling
Jing Zhao•Wang Shengpeng•Wu Lixin•Wang Hong•Zhou Shenghui等 10 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/1/30
•Vol.13 No.2 p.148-154
Equatorward alongshore winds over major eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) drive intense upwelling via Ekman dynamics, surfacing nutrient-rich deep waters and promoting marine primary production and fisheries. It is generally thought, dating back to Bakun’s hypothesis, that greenhouse warmin...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01588-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Climatic influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the East Asian winter precipitation
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/8/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The Antarctic ozone hole exerts a substantial impact on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, yet research exploring its potential influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate is limited. This study unveils a significant positive relationship between interannual variations of Antarctic total colum...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00732-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century
Huguenin Maurice F.•Holmes Ryan M.•England Matthew H.
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/7
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed almost all of the additional energy in the Earth system due to greenhouse warming. However, sparse observations limit our knowledge of where ocean heat uptake (OHU) has occurred and where this heat is stored today. Here, we equilibrate a reanalysis-forced ocea...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-32540-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Earth’s east–west albedo symmetry
Jianhao Zhang•Jake J. Gristey•Graham Feingold
Nature
2026
•2026/6/3
•00 p.1-7
Earth’s albedo is fundamental to the planetary energy budget1. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) contribute essentially equally to the planetary albedo—a remarkable yet puzzling phenomenon known as hemispheric albedo symmetry1–6. Although such symmetry is rare, it is not uniq...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-026-10624-2
ISSN:0028-0836
Hysteresis response of Northern Hemisphere winter temperature variability under different CO₂ removal pathways
So-Hee Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Soon-Il An•Maeng-Ki Kim•Hyo-Seok Park等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/1
0Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient (∂T/∂y), reducing the Northern Hemisphere winter daily temperature variability (Tstd). However, the extent to which Tstd recovers following CO₂ removal remains uncertain. We investigate the hysteresis and reversibility of Tstd under va...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01277-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Amplified local cooling effect of forestation in warming Europe
Yitao Li•Jun Ge•Hua Wu•Ronglin Tang•Yuanliang Cheng等 17 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/9/25
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Forests exhibit local cooling or warming effects compared to adjacent openlands through biophysical processes. These temperature effects are predicted by earth system models to evolve in response to climate change. However, such temporal patterns remain unconstrained by observations and have not bee...
Climate-change impactsForest ecology
10.1038/S41467-025-63556-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Asymmetric impacts of Arctic sea ice anomalies on El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Shangfeng Chen•Wen Chen•Renguang Wu•Bin Yu•Hans-F Graf等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/21
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
The impact of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on the global climate system has received considerable attention in recent decades. Observations and model simulations indicate that winter Arctic SIC anomalies in the Greenland-Barents Seas significantly influence on the El Niño-Southern Os...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01168-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Equatorial convection controls boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the present and future climates
Aditya Kottapalli•P. N. Vinayachandran
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/28
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the major mode of tropical intraseasonal variability during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), it partly controls the dry and wet spells of the ISM and thus is crucial for agricultural yield in the country. Understanding the future of BSISO is ess...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00959-4
ISSN:2397-3722
The turbulent future brings a breath of fresh air
Camilla W. Stjern•Øivind Hodnebrog•Gunnar Myhre•Ignacio Pisso
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/22
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Ventilation of health hazardous aerosol pollution within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) – the lowest layer of the atmosphere – is dependent upon turbulent mixing, which again is closely linked to the height of the PBL. Here we show that emissions of both CO2 and absorbing aerosols such as black ...
Climate-change impactsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-023-39298-4
ISSN:2041-1723
A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels under negative emissions may enhance carbon retention in the terrestrial biosphere
Park So-Won•Kug Jong-Seong
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/11/19
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
Negative emissions are a key mitigation measure in emission scenarios consistent with Paris agreement targets. The terrestrial biosphere is a carbon sink that regulates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate, but its role under negative emissions is highly uncertain. Here, we inv...
Carbon cycleProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-022-00621-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot
Gregory Munday•Chris D. Jones•Norman J. Steinert•Camilla Mathison•Eleanor J. Burke等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/5/12
•00 p.1-6
With global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impacts under policy-relevant stabilization or overshoot pathways h...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41558-025-02327-9
ISSN:1758-678X
The role of Arctic sea ice loss in the interdecadal trends of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warming climate
Xiaoqi Zhang•Bian He•Qing Bao•Yimin Liu•Guoxiong Wu等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. Howe...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00717-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Atmospheric circulation-constrained model sensitivity recalibrates Arctic climate projections
Dániel Topál•Qinghua Ding
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/6/12
•00 p.1-9
The Arctic has been suggested to see seasonally ice-free conditions within two-to-three decades under high-emissions scenarios. However, the time of emergence of the first ice-free month remains uncertain due to a wide range of estimates for Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. Here,...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-023-01698-1
ISSN:1758-678X
The role of sea ice in present and future Arctic amplification
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Kyung-Ja Ha•Malte F. Stuecker•Sun-Seon Lee等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.9100
The importance of sea-ice loss on the Arctic amplification of near-surface warming remains contentious, as Arctic amplification emerges even in model experiments with disabled surface-albedo feedback. Here we show that the characteristics and underlying dynamics of Arctic amplification may change gr...
AttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-025-02834-9
ISSN:2662-4435
North Atlantic ventilation change over the past three decades is potentially driven by climate change
Haichao Guo•Wolfgang Koeve•Iris Kriest•Ivy Frenger•Toste Tanhua等 9 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/7
•Vol.17 No.1 p.2000
The North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) ventilates a large part of the world ocean via the formation of mode waters and North Atlantic Deep Water. The extent to which human activities have impacted this ventilation system remains unclear. To assess the temporal variations of oce...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-025-67923-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Human-induced intensification of terrestrial water cycle in dry regions of the globe
Yansong Guan•Xihui Gu•Louise J. Slater•Xueying Li•Jianfeng Li等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/23
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) strengthens the global terrestrial water cycle (TWC) through increases in annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) over global land. While the increase in the average global terrestrial PRCPTOT has been attributed to ACC, it is unclear whether this is equally true in d...
AttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00590-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming
Wenju Cai•Benjamin Ng•Tao Geng•Lixin Wu•Agus Santoso等 6 人
Nature
2020
•2020/9/2
•Vol.585 No.7823 p.68-73
El Niño and La Niña, collectively referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are not only highly consequential1–6 but also strongly nonlinear7–14. For example, the maximum warm anomalies of El Niño, which occur in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, are larger than the maximum cold an...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-020-2641-X
ISSN:0028-0836
Strengthened impact of boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation on ENSO development in warming climate
Shangfeng Chen•Wen Chen•Shang-Ping Xie•Bin Yu•Renguang Wu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/12
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), an important mode of atmospheric variability, is a crucial trigger for the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the seasonal footprinting mechanism. How the NPO effect on ENSO changes in response to greenhouse warming remains unclear, however. H...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00615-3
ISSN:2397-3722
A dual-core model for ENSO diversity: unifying model hierarchies for realistic simulations
Jinyu Wang•Xianghui Fang•Nan Chen•Bo Qin•Mu Mu等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/14
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new unified modeling platform, which provides practical, scalable, a...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01164-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Unveiling the role of South Tropical Atlantic in winter Atlantic Niño inducing La Niña
Guangli Zhang•Jiepeng Chen•Hanjie Fan•Lei Zhang•Mengyan Chen等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/13
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
The boreal winter-peaked Atlantic Niño/Niña can influence La Niña/El Niño (the cold/warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) in the following year. However, the Atlantic Niño-La Niña relationship is more uncertain than the Atlantic Niña-El Niño counterpart. Here, we show that this uncertain...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-56874-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming
Liu Wei•Hegglin Michaela I.•Checa-Garcia Ramiro•Li Shouwei•Gillett Nathan P.等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/3/31
•00 p.1-8
Atmospheric ozone has undergone distinct changes in the stratosphere and troposphere during the second half of the twentieth century, with depletion in the stratosphere and an increase in the troposphere. Until now, the effect of these changes on ocean heat uptake has been unclear. Here we show that...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01320-W
ISSN:1758-678X
The future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling
Chemke Rei
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/4/1
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
The latitudinal position of mid-latitude storm tracks has large climate impacts affecting the distribution of precipitation, temperature, humidity, and winds over the extratropics. By the end of this century, climate models project a poleward shift of summer mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41467-022-29392-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Climate model trend errors are evident in seasonal forecasts at short leads
Jonathan D. Beverley•Matthew Newman•Andrew Hoell
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/20
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Climate models exhibit errors in their simulation of historical trends of variables including sea surface temperature, winds, and precipitation, with important implications for regional and global climate projections. Here, we show that the same trend errors are also present in a suite of initialise...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00832-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Disentangling anthropogenic and dynamic contributions to recent ocean warming
Jiheun Lee•Rémi Tailleux•Till Kuhlbrodt
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/26
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
As the ocean absorbs over 90% of excess radiative heat, recent ocean warming is shaped by a combination of anthropogenic surface heat gain and dynamical processes redistributing heat. To distinguish these contributions, we introduce a novel framework that decomposes temperature changes into three co...
Climate changeClimate sciencesOcean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01043-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Projected changes in atmospheric pathways of Western North American heatwaves simulated from high-resolution coupled model simulations
Mingyu Park•Nathaniel C. Johnson
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/13
•Vol.9 No.1 p.470
Western North America (WNA) is a regional hotspot for summer heat extremes. However, our understanding of the atmospheric processes driving WNA heatwaves remains largely based on a few case studies. In this study, we investigate the general characteristics of atmospheric pathways associated with WNA...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01319-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Combined dynamical-deep learning ENSO forecasts
Yipeng Chen•Yishuai Jin•Zhengyu Liu•Xingchen Shen•Xianyao Chen等 13 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/24
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-8
Improving the prediction skill of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is of critical importance for society. Over the past half-century, significant improvements have been made in ENSO prediction. Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can substantially improve the prediction skill...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-59173-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming
Soong-Ki Kim•Hyo-Jin Park•Soon-Il An•Chao Liu•Wenju Cai等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/4/1
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that h...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-47276-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation
Yue Li•Jessica C. A. Baker•Paulo M. Brando•Forrest M. Hoffman•David M. Lawrence等 9 人
Nature Water
2023
•2023/8/31
•00 p.1-9
Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO2, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) clim...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S44221-023-00128-Y
ISSN:2731-6084
Hemispheric contrast in summer season duration responses to CO2 removal
Bo-Joung Park•Seung-Ki Min•Soon-Il An•Sang-Wook Yeh•Seok-Woo Son等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/23
0As global warming accelerates, questions arise about whether the climate system can revert to its original state as CO2 concentrations decrease. Delayed summer season recovery has important implications for heatwaves, wildfires, and socio-environmental risks. Using multiple climate models with CO2 r...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-026-03548-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Early burst of Tibetan Plateau vortices increases extreme precipitation over Tibetan Plateau in early spring
Lun Li•Renhe Zhang•Jingzhi Su
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/5/29
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are key drivers of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), triggering heavy precipitation both locally and in downstream regions. This work reveals that an early burst of TPVs significantly enhances the extreme precipitation over the TP in early spring. Variation...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01094-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Explainable El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions
Sen Zhao•Fei-Fei Jin•Malte F. Stuecker•Philip R. Thompson•Jong-Seong Kug等 9 人
Nature
2024
•2024/6/26
•Vol.630 No.8018 p.891-898
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides most of the global seasonal climate forecast skill1–3, yet, quantifying the sources of skilful predictions is a long-standing challenge4–7. Different sources of predictability affect ENSO evolution, leading to distinct global effects. Artificial ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciencesNatural hazardsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-024-07534-6
ISSN:0028-0836
A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation
Jonathan Schmidt•Luca Schmidt•Felix M. Strnad•Nicole Ludwig•Philipp Hennig
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/18
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally decoupled spatial patches. However, to preserve physical properties,...
Atmospheric dynamicsMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-025-01157-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation
Corey S. Lesk•Jonathan M. Winter•Justin S. Mankin
Nature Water
2025
•2025/1/20
•00 p.1-11
The impact of plants on runoff under high atmospheric CO2 is a major uncertainty for future water resources. Theory and Earth system models (ESMs) suggest that stricter plant stomatal regulation under high CO2 will reduce transpiration, potentially boosting runoff. Yet, across a 12-member ensemble o...
BiogeochemistryClimate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S44221-024-00361-Z
ISSN:2731-6084
Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming
Yuanchao Fan•Kaighin A. McColl
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/12/12
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-13
Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-based human...
Climate-change impactsNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01930-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Forest-savanna stability in India under human interventions and changing climate
Nivedita Dubey•Tejasvi A. Chauhan•Subimal Ghosh
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/10
0Terrestrial vegetation, particularly forests and savannas, is vital for regulating water and carbon cycles; however, its resilience to climate change remains largely unexplored in India. Our study projects that global warming will increase the likelihood of a shift from forest to savanna-like condit...
Climate sciencesEcology
10.1038/S43247-025-03076-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate
Shujun Li•Lixin Wu•Yiting Wang•Tao Geng•Wenju Cai等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/2/13
•Vol.15 No.3 p.293-300
The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a basin-scale mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse war...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02252-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity
Grégory V. Cesana•Anthony D. Del Genio
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/2/15
•Vol.11 No.3 p.213-218
Global climate models predict warming in response to increasing GHG concentrations, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus from shallow cumulus clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming an...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-020-00970-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability
Laibao Liu•Rosie A. Fisher•Hervé Douville•Ryan S. Padrón•Alexis Berg等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/25
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and futur...
BiogeochemistryCarbon cycle
10.1038/S43247-024-01504-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Uncertainties in measuring precipitation hinders precise evaluation of loss of diversity in biomes and ecotones
Andrés Navarro•Gyuwon Lee•Raúl Martín•Francisco J. Tapiador
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Assessing changes in the distribution of biological communities that share a climate (biomes) is essential for estimating their vulnerability to climate change. We use CMIP6 climate models to calculate biome changes as featuring in classifications such as Holdridge’s Life Zones (climate envelopes). ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00581-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Intensification of Pacific tropical instability waves over the recent three decades
Minyang Wang•Shang-Ping Xie•Hideharu Sasaki•Masami Nonaka•Yan Du
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/1/25
•00 p.1-8
Tropical instability waves (TIWs) arise from shear instabilities of equatorial Pacific Ocean currents and are important for the tropical climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Yet the long-term evolution of TIW activity under climate change remains unclear due to the difficulty in estimating ...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01915-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes
Tat Fan Cheng•Bin Wang•Fei Liu•Guosen Chen•Mengqian Lu
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/28
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Subseasonal precipitation whiplashes, marked by sudden shifts between dry and wet extremes, can disrupt ecosystems and human well-being. Predicting these events two to six weeks in advance is crucial for disaster management. Here, we show that the propagation diversity of the Madden-Julian Oscillati...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-58955-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt shaped by competing feedbacks
Madeleine K. Youngs•Andrew L. Stewart•Yidongfang Si•Andrew F. Thompson•Michael P. Schodlok
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/5/15
•00 p.1-8
Antarctic ice-shelf melt constitutes a major source of epistemic uncertainty in future sea level rise, yet the interplay between melt and ocean circulation is not captured in climate model projections. Consequently, the relative importance of feedbacks from increased ice-shelf melting versus directl...
Cryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-026-01975-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed
Hsing-Hung Chou•Tiffany A. Shaw•Gan Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/20
0Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence. For low-level extreme winds, the extent of human influence and climate model fidelity remains unclear. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01292-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
Yusen Liu•Cheng Sun•Jianping Li•Fred Kucharski•Emanuele Di Lorenzo等 7 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/12/13
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-12
Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly un...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-023-44094-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Volcanically forced Madden–Julian oscillation triggers the immediate onset of El Niño
Hyemi Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Daehyun Kim•Daniele Visioni
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/6
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
A process-level understanding of the volcanically forced climate response is an urgent challenge due to its similarities to the potential effects of geoengineering techniques. Although the influence of volcanic forcing on El Niño events has been studied extensively, the mechanisms driving the volcan...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric dynamics
10.1038/S41467-025-56692-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Local biophysical climate feedback from vegetation responses to lower aerosol pollution
Jun Ge•Xu Yue•Mengyuan Mu•Xin Miao•Xin Huang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/5
•Vol.9 No.1 p.380
Aerosols can influence vegetation through multiple processes, yet the resulting biophysical climate feedback from the vegetation response remains poorly understood. Here, using an ensemble of Earth system models and an observation-based empirical model, we show that the vegetation response to comple...
Climate sciencesEcologyEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01310-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos•Danning Fu•Paul C. Loikith•J. David Neelin
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/7/7
•00 p.1-8
Heatwaves are expected to both increase in frequency and duration under global warming. The probability distributions of heatwave durations are shaped by day-to-day correlations in temperature and so cannot be simply inferred from changes in the probabilities of daily temperature extremes. Here we s...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impactNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-025-01737-W
ISSN:1752-0894
Human-induced warming accelerates local evapotranspiration and precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau
Tat Fan Cheng•Deliang Chen•Bin Wang•Tinghai Ou•Mengqian Lu
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/7/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
The Tibetan Plateau faces changing precipitation and environmental conditions affecting alpine ecosystems and downstream freshwater sustainability. While aerosol influence has been highlighted, how human-induced greenhouse warming impacts the plateau’s moisture recycling remains unclear. Here we sho...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionGovernanceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01563-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Enhanced impact of the Aleutian Low on increasing the Central Pacific ENSO in recent decades
Chen Shangfeng•Chen Wen•Yu Bin•Wu Renguang•Graf Hans-F.等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/4/3
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
In this study, we reveal a marked enhanced impact of the early-spring Aleutian Low (AL) on the following winter El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) after the late-1990s. This enhanced impact of the early-spring AL may have an important contribution to the increased emergence of the central Pacif...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-023-00350-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Contrary effects of soil moisture-atmosphere feedback on dry and humid heatwaves
Sisi Chen•Peng Ji•Shanshui Yuan•Qibo Xu•Chunhui Lu等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/3
•Vol.17 No.1 p.26260
Although soil moisture-atmosphere feedback (SAF) has been widely recognized as a key driver of temperature extremes, its distinct impacts on dry and humid heatwaves remain insufficiently understood, largely due to previous studies focusing predominantly on dry heatwaves alone. In this study, we comb...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41467-026-70210-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate
Yue Chen•Yu Liang•Xianyao Chen•Haibo Bi
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/26
0Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01296-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Aerosol emission reductions cause post-2011 rapid warming in the northwestern Pacific
Nan Yang•Yan Xia•Fei Xie•Chuanfeng Zhao•Tianyi Fan等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/25
0The northwestern Pacific has exhibited an anomalously rapid warming since 2011, causing significant climate disasters and marine ecosystem destruction. Yet the drivers of this accelerated warming remain insufficiently understood. Here we find that anthropogenic aerosol mitigation constitutes the pri...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S43247-025-03015-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Building social resilience in North Korea can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security
Shi Yu•Zhang Yajie•Wu Bingyan•Wang Bin•Li Linchao等 20 人
Nature Food
2022
•2022/7/21
•Vol.3 No.7 p.499-511
Adaptation based on social resilience is proposed as an effective measure to mitigate hunger and avoid food shocks caused by climate change. But these have not been investigated comprehensively in climate-sensitive regions. North Korea (NK) and its neighbours, South Korea and China, represent three ...
AgricultureClimate changeClimate-change adaptationClimate-change mitigationEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43016-022-00551-6
ISSN:2662-1355
Multi-decadal climate variability and satellite biases have amplified model-observation discrepancies in tropical troposphere warming estimates
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Byung-Ju Sohn•Young-Chan Noh•Viju O. John
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/21
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Most coupled model simulations substantially overestimate tropical tropospheric warming trends over the satellite era, undermining the reliability of model-projected future climate change. Here we show that the model-observation discrepancy over the satellite era has arisen in large part from multi-...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-024-01510-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Projection of temperature-related mortality among the elderly under advanced aging and climate change scenario
Yi Huang•Chen Li•De Li Liu•Jun Yang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/28
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Advanced aging is expected to become a major social problem in China during the second half of the 21st century. Current projections of temperature-related mortality in the context of advanced aging are inadequate, and may underestimate the risks posed by global warming on people aged 90+ years. The...
Environmental health
10.1038/S41612-023-00487-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming
Rong-Hua Zhang•Maonan Chen•Chuan Gao•Lu Zhou•Hai Zhi等 10 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/24
•Vol.17 No.1 p.31260
As projected by climate models in the high emission scenarios, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a non-monotonic amplitude shift. However, its key drivers remain poorly quantified. Here we introduce a framework using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) that coherently represents mean-...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-026-69931-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Future enhanced threshold effects of wildfire drivers could increase burned areas in northern mid- and high latitudes
Hang Zhao•Zhengxiang Zhang•Xin Wang•Shuo Zhen•Hongyan Zhang等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/21
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Wildfires exhibit extensive nonlinear characteristics and threshold effects in response to environmental changes. However, how threshold effects affect wildfire responses and their future changes remains unclear. Here we identified thresholds where wildfire-driver relationships shift and estimated t...
Climate-change impactsFire ecology
10.1038/S43247-025-02202-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Yi Liu•Wenju Cai•Xiaopei Lin•Ziguang Li•Ying Zhang
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/9/21
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects the macroeconomy, how long the impact lasts, and how the impact may change in a warming climate are imp...
Climate-change impactsEconomics
10.1038/S41467-023-41551-9
ISSN:2041-1723
A shift towards broader and less persistent Southern Hemisphere temperature anomalies
Itamar Karbi•Rei Chemke
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-7
Temperature anomalies considerably influence the regional climate and weather of the extratropics. By the end of this century, climate models project an intensification of synoptic temperature variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. This intensification, however, comprises temperature ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00526-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900
Latif Mojib•Sun Jing•Visbeck Martin•Hadi Bordbar M.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/4/25
•00 p.1-6
There is debate about slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component of the global climate system. Some focus is on the sea surface temperature (SST) slightly cooling in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic despite widespread ocean warming. Atlantic SST is influen...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanographyStatistics
10.1038/S41558-022-01342-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Late Quaternary fluctuation in upper range limit of trees shapes endemic flora diversity on the Tibetan Plateau
Jinfeng Xu•Tao Wang•Xiaoyi Wang•Christian Körner•Xianyong Cao等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/20
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
The influence of paleoclimate in shaping current biodiversity pattern is widely acknowledged. However, it remains unclear how the upper paleo-range limit of trees, which dictated the habitat of endemic alpine species, affects the variability in endemic alpine species composition across space over th...
BiodiversityForest ecologyPalaeoclimatePalaeoecology
10.1038/S41467-025-57036-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing
Chengfei He•Amy C. Clement•Sydney M. Kramer•Mark A. Cane•Jeremy M. Klavans等 7 人
Nature
2023
•2023/9/13
•00 p.1-7
The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity1–4. Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among th...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41586-023-06489-4
ISSN:0028-0836
Precipitation disaster hotspots depend on historical climate variability
Iris de Vries•Maybritt Schillinger•Erich Fischer•Sebastian Sippel•Reto Knutti
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/29
0Record-high precipitation events are relevant for impacts since they are more severe than any observed event and can lead to unforeseeable consequences. Climate change increases average record-breaking probability, but the current, local record-breaking probability and local disaster preparedness ar...
Climate-change impactsHydrologyNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-66601-2
ISSN:2041-1723
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century
Zili Shen•Wen Zhou•Jinxiao Li•Johnny C. L. Chan
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/27
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-7
Although the trend of sea-ice extent under global warming has been studied extensively in recent years, most climate models have failed to capture the recent rapid change in the Arctic environment, which has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of sea ice and suggested ...
Climate changeStatistics
10.1038/S41612-023-00431-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai Wenju•Ng Benjamin•Wang Guojian•Santoso Agus•Wu Lixin等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/1/31
•00 p.1-4
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. Howeve...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01282-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America
Ziming Chen•Jian Lu•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Sandro W. Lubis•L. Ruby Leung
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/21
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Heat-dome-like stationary waves often lead to extreme heat events, such as the unprecedented heatwave in Northwestern North America during the summer of 2021. However, future changes in summer stationary waves over Northwestern North America and the underlying driving factors remain unclear. Here, w...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00511-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Widespread global exacerbation of extreme drought induced by urbanization
Shuzhe Huang•Siqi Wang•Yuan Gan•Chao Wang•Daniel E. Horton等 10 人
Nature Cities
2024
•2024/8/7
•00 p.1-13
Urbanization exerts considerable impact on ecological, environmental and meteorological processes and systems. However, the effects of urbanization on local drought remain under-explored. Here we characterize the effects of urbanization on drought across the world’s cities using global weather stati...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental impactNatural hazards
10.1038/S44284-024-00102-Z
ISSN:2731-9997
Amplified warming of extreme temperatures over tropical land
Byrne Michael P.
Nature Geoscience
2021
•2021/10/21
•00 p.1-5
Extreme temperatures have warmed substantially over recent decades and are projected to continue warming in response to future climate change. Warming of extreme temperatures is amplified over land, with severe implications for human health, wildfire risk and food production. Using simulations from ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-021-00828-8
ISSN:1752-0894
Contribution of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions to changes in summer upper-tropospheric thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific
Peilin Li•Botao Zhou•Dapeng Zhang•Wenxin Xie•Zhicong Yin等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Change of zonal thermal contrast in the upper troposphere (ZTUT) between Asia and the North Pacific is a highly concerned issue, as it profoundly influences the Northern hemispheric climate. However, the physical reasons, particularly the anthropogenic influences on the ZTUT change are not well unde...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00865-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
Hanbeen Kim•Gabriele Villarini
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/1/3
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future changes in flooding across CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models and four scenarios of the Coupled Mo...
HydrologyProjection and predictionWater resources
10.1038/S41467-023-44415-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest
Karen A. McKinnon•Andrew Poppick•Isla R. Simpson
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/6/17
•00 p.1-7
The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific humidity; however, it remains unclear how humidity extremes may change, especially in climatologically dry (low-humidity) regions. He...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41558-021-01076-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Global vegetation production may decrease in this century due to rising atmospheric dryness
Shangrong Lin•Xiuzhi Chen•Jiangzhou Xia•Qinchuan Xin•Zheng Fu等 9 人
Nature Ecology & Evolution
2025
•2025/10/23
•00 p.1-11
Previous projections from Earth system models have suggested that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations would stimulate global vegetation production through the CO2 fertilization effect. Here we show that increased atmospheric dryness driven by climate warming will substantially counteract this effe...
Climate-change ecologyEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41559-025-02885-3
ISSN:2397-334X
A westward shift of heatwave hotspots caused by warming-enhanced land–air coupling
Kaiwen Zhang•Zhiyan Zuo•Wei Mei•Renhe Zhang•Aiguo Dai
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/3/20
•00 p.1-8
Heatwaves pose serious risks to human health and lives, but how their occurrence patterns may change under global warming remains unclear. Here we reveal a systematic westward shift of heatwave hotspots across the northern mid-latitudes around the late 1990s. Both observational analysis and numerica...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41558-025-02302-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
Wei Wang•T. C. Chakraborty•Wei Xiao•Xuhui Lee
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/4/9
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we fi...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeClimate-change impactsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-021-22406-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Data-driven reconstruction reveals large-scale ocean circulation control on coastal sea level
Sönke Dangendorf•Thomas Frederikse•Léon Chafik•John M. Klinck•Tal Ezer等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/5/17
•Vol.11 No.6 p.514-520
Understanding historical and projected coastal sea-level change is limited because the impact of large-scale ocean dynamics is not well constrained. Here, we use a global set of tide-gauge records over nine regions to analyse the relationship between coastal sea-level variability and open-ocean ster...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41558-021-01046-1
ISSN:1758-678X
2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability
Bjørn H. Samset•Marianne T. Lund•Jan S. Fuglestvedt•Laura J. Wilcox
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/8/27
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss of aerosol induced cooling. Here we use a recent Green’s function-based method to quantify the influence...
Climate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01637-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming
Hyun-Su Jo•Yoo-Geun Ham
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/11
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Sea surface temperature variability over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) and over the subtropical northeast Pacific (SNP), which is referred to as the North Pacific Meridional Mode, during the early boreal spring is known to trigger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The future changes of...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-023-42115-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Asymmetric response of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a carbon dioxide removal scenario
Zhang Suqin•Qu Xia•Huang Gang•Hu Peng
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/2/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The reversibility of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation under the CO2 removal scenario is critical for climate mitigation and adaptation. In the idealized CO2 ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, SASM precipitation is largely reversible while exhibitin...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00338-X
ISSN:2397-3722
From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Violaine Coulon•Ann Kristin Klose•Tamsin Edwards•Fiona Turner•Frank Pattyn等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/5
•Vol.16 No.1 p.103850
Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample para...
Climate changeCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-025-66178-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world
Shiyi Zhang•Qinghong Zhang•John T. Allen•Xiangyu Lin
Nature
2026
•2026/5/27
•Vol.653 No.8116 p.1069-1077
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1–4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale change...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-026-10543-2
ISSN:0028-0836
Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
Yamagami Yoko•Watanabe Masahiro•Mori Masato•Ono Jun
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/7/15
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate mo...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-31117-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Simulated Antarctic sea ice expansion reconciles climate model with observation
Wei Liu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
Observations reveal Antarctic sea ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling trends from 1979 to 2014, whereas climate models mostly simulate the opposite. Here I use historical ensemble simulations with multiple climate models to show that sea-ice natural variability enables the models to sim...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00881-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic aerosol and cryosphere changes drive Earth’s strong but transient clear-sky hemispheric albedo asymmetry
Diamond Michael S.•Gristey Jake J.•Kay Jennifer E.•Feingold Graham
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/9/12
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
A striking feature of the Earth system is that the Northern and Southern Hemispheres reflect identical amounts of sunlight. This hemispheric albedo symmetry comprises two asymmetries: The Northern Hemisphere is more reflective in clear skies, whereas the Southern Hemisphere is cloudier. Here we show...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-022-00546-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia
Ritchie Paul D. L.•Parry Isobel•Clarke Joseph J.•Huntingford Chris•Cox Peter M.
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/9/1
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
Earth System Models project a wide range of rainfall changes in the Amazon rainforest, and hence changes in soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Hydrological changes are heterogeneous, meaning local measurements are too sparse to constrain projections of large-scale hydrological change. Here we sho...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-022-00528-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe
Jitendra Singh•Sebastian Sippel•Erich M. Fischer
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/11/23
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
Globally heat extremes have intensified in recent decades. However, while Western Europe shows a remarkably strong intensification of heat extremes, the Midwest United States experienced only weak warming of warmest nighttime and even a weak decrease in the intensity of daytime heat extremes since 1...
AttributionClimate change
10.1038/S43247-023-01096-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Phong V. V. Le•James T. Randerson•Rebecca Willett•Stephen Wright•Padhraic Smyth等 8 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/28
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-39463-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming
Tao Geng•Wenju Cai•Fan Jia•Lixin Wu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/10
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how EN...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-024-50156-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Past foraminiferal acclimatization capacity is limited during future warming
Rui Ying•Fanny M. Monteiro•Jamie D. Wilson•Malin Ödalen•Daniela N. Schmidt
Nature
2024
•2024/11/13
•00 p.1-5
Climate change affects marine organisms, causing migrations, biomass reduction and extinctions1,2. However, the abilities of marine species to adapt to these changes remain poorly constrained on both geological and anthropogenic timescales. Here we combine the fossil record and a global trait-based ...
BiogeographyClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change ecologyMarine biologyPalaeoecology
10.1038/S41586-024-08029-0
ISSN:0028-0836
Asymmetric global urban cooling potential demands accelerated and context-specific actions
Xiaotian Ding•Yifan Fan•Yongling Zhao•Diana Ürge-Vorsatz•Jian Ge等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/19
0Rising urban temperatures and heat extremes pose an urgent global challenge, yet the potential for mitigating excessive urban heat–particularly at the global scale–remains unclear. Here, we quantify the cooling potential across 2,265 cities worldwide by the 2050s using validated urban climate simula...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41467-026-70662-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges
Haochi Wu•Jiahui Chen•Parth Vaishnav•Mingyang Sun•Michael T. Craig
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/3/2
•Vol.16 No.4 p.460-467
Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transportation decarbonization, yet their battery performance and longevity are vulnerable to temperature extremes, which will be affected by climate change. Battery technology advancements moderate this vulnerability, a dynamic rarely captured in technology assess...
Climate changeClimate-change impactsEnergy science and technology
10.1038/S41558-026-02579-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Physically constrained generative adversarial networks for improving precipitation fields from Earth system models
Hess Philipp•Drüke Markus•Petri Stefan•Strnad Felix M.•Boers Niklas
Nature Machine Intelligence
2022
•2022/10/3
•Vol.4 No.10 p.828-839
Precipitation results from complex processes across many scales, making its accurate simulation in Earth system models (ESMs) challenging. Existing post-processing methods can improve ESM simulations locally but cannot correct errors in modelled spatial patterns. Here we propose a framework based on...
Climate sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S42256-022-00540-1
ISSN:2522-5839
Radiative effects of precipitation on the global energy budget and Arctic amplification
Takuro Michibata
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Radiative forcing is an essential metric for accurate climate prediction. Clouds are a well-known source of uncertainty, but the radiative effects of precipitation (REP) are poorly understood and excluded from most general circulation models (GCMs). This is because conventional GCMs treat precipitat...
Atmospheric scienceCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-024-00684-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate
Liu Yi•Cai Wenju•Lin Xiaopei•Li Ziguang
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/8/18
•Vol.12 No.9 p.828-833
Interannual variability of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affects hydrological cycles, extreme weather events, ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods in Atlantic-rim countries. It can experience an interannual extreme swing, moving hundreds of kilometres northwards during boreal...
Atmospheric scienceAttributionHydrologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01445-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Weakened large-scale surface heat flux feedback at midlatitudes under global warming
Zhiqiao Wang•Zhao Jing•Fengfei Song
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/11/19
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
The surface heat flux feedback, which refers to the response of surface heat flux anomaly to the underlying sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), is one of the key processes in air-sea interaction. It plays an important role in regulating various aspects of the climate system, ranging from local S...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-54394-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models
Basudev Swain•Marco Vountas•Aishwarya Singh•Nidhi L. Anchan•Chakradhar Reddy Malasani等 18 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The Arctic is experiencing heightened precipitation, affected by aerosols impacting rainfall and snowfall. However, sparse aerosol observations in the central Arctic cryosphere contribute to uncertainties in simulating aerosol-precipitation two-way interaction. This study examines aerosol-precipitat...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-025-00957-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Contribution of anthropogenic influence to the 2022-like Yangtze River valley compound heatwave and drought event
Dong Chen•Shaobo Qiao•Jie Yang•Shankai Tang•Dongdong Zuo等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/23
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
In August 2022, an unprecedented compound heatwave and drought event (CHDE) lasting 24 days occurred in the Yangtze River valley (YRV), leading to a severe reduction of the crop, fresh water, and power supply. We constructed a joint cumulative probability distribution of heatwave and drought intensi...
AttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00720-3
ISSN:2397-3722
The primary factors influencing the cooling effect of carbon dioxide removal
Xia Qu•Gang Huang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/12/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a crucial approach in achieving the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement. However, understanding the cooling effect (CE) of CDR and its primary controlling factors has been challenging due to the limited number of models conducting the CDR simulation. To address t...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S41612-023-00547-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2
Hsu Hsin•Dirmeyer Paul A.
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/3/1
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
When soil moisture (SM) content falls within a transitional regime between dry and wet conditions, it controls evaporation, affecting atmospheric heat and humidity. Accordingly, different SM regimes correspond to different gears of land-atmosphere coupling, affecting climate. Determining patterns of...
Atmospheric dynamicsHydrology
10.1038/S41467-023-36794-5
ISSN:2041-1723
The recent and future PM2.5-related health burden in China apportioned by emission source
Jiemei Liu•Jørgen Brandt•Jesper H. Christensen•Zhuyun Ye•Tingsen Chen等 10 人
Npj Clean Air
2025
•2025/4/28
•Vol.1 No.1 p.1-14
This study estimated PM2.5 (atmospheric fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µg) concentrations and the health burden in mainland China from 2010 to 2049 under two scenarios: Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions. We assess premature deaths from PM2.5 exposu...
Environmental impact
10.1038/S44407-025-00006-9
ISSN:3059-2240
Logarithmic CO2 warming reverses North Atlantic winter atmospheric circulation changes
Rei Chemke•Ivan Mitevski
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/9
•Vol.9 No.1 p.410
The North Atlantic climate is strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation, including the storm track and jet stream, which shape regional precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns. Climate models project an intensification of the winter circulation through the 21st century, howeve...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01314-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk
Duffy Kate•Gouhier Tarik C.•Ganguly Auroop R.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/10/20
•Vol.12 No.11 p.1037-1044
Climate-mediated changes in thermal stress can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. However, risk assessments often focus on changes in mean temperatures and thus ignore the role of temporal variability or structure. Using Earth System Model projections, we show that significa...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41558-022-01490-7
ISSN:1758-678X
Global mapping and evolution of persistent fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems over the past 40 years
Qinwang Xing•Haiqing Yu•Hui Wang
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/14
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Ocean fronts, characterized by narrow zones with sharp changes in water properties, are vital hotspots for ecosystem services and key regulators of regional and global climates. Global change is reshaping the distribution of material and energy in the ocean; however, it remains unclear how fronts ha...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-48566-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
Stefan Hofer•Charlotte Lang•Charles Amory•Christoph Kittel•Alison Delhasse等 7 人
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/12/15
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-11
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to ass...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingClimate changeCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-020-20011-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming
Liang Qiao•Zhiyan Zuo•Renhe Zhang•Shilong Piao•Dong Xiao等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/8/15
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe an...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-023-40641-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
The projected future degradation in air quality is caused by more abundant natural aerosols in a warmer world
Gomez James•Allen Robert J.•Turnock Steven T.•Horowitz Larry W.•Tsigaridis Kostas等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/2/2
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that ...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00688-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Aerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau
Zhili Wang•Yadong Lei•Huizheng Che•Bo Wu•Xiaoye Zhang
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, has been getting wetter since the 1970s. However, the primary drivers behind this phenomenon are still highly controversial. Here, we isolate the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols, natural forcings and internal climate variability o...
AttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-024-46635-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Atmospheric deposition enhances marine methane production and emissions from global oceans
Guang-Chao Zhuang•Shi-Hai Mao•Hong-Hai Zhang•Menggong Li•Wei-Lei Wang等 15 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/21
•Vol.17 No.1 p.18110
Aerobic methane production from biological methylphosphonate degradation contributes to the observed supersaturation of oceanic methane in oxygenated surface waters. Atmospheric deposition is an important nutrient source and this process can affect nutrient ratios and biogeochemical cycle in the upp...
Carbon cycleMarine chemistry
10.1038/S41467-026-68527-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming
Wenju Cai•Kai Yang•Lixin Wu•Gang Huang•Agus Santoso等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2020
•2020/11/30
•Vol.11 No.1 p.27-32
A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of ...
Climate changeClimate sciencesOcean sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-020-00943-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty
Rachindra Mawalagedara•Arnob Ray•Puja Das•Jack Watson•Ashis Kumar Pal等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/9/26
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
Internal climate variability (ICV) remains a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, complicating impact assessments across critical sectors, especially at stakeholder-relevant scales. Given that ICV emerges from the nonlinear interactions of the climate system, we argue that nonlinear d...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate changeClimate-change impactsClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01208-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information
Peter Pfleiderer•Thomas L. Frölicher•Chahan M. Kropf•Robin D. Lamboll•Quentin Lejeune等 16 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/1/3
•Vol.18 No.1 p.10-19
Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a rever...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41561-024-01597-W
ISSN:1752-0894
Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range
Carla M. Roesch•Emilie Fons•Andrew P. Ballinger•Jakob Runge•Gabriele C. Hegerl
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/12
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature, is important for the impact of extreme temperatures, but despite physical links to aerosol forcing previous studies have struggled to attribute observed DTR changes to aerosols. Using causal inference,...
Atmospheric scienceAttribution
10.1038/S41612-025-00922-3
ISSN:2397-3722
The impacts of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on humidity-based extreme heat
Ashley E. Cornish•Gabriel J. Kooperman•Andrew J. Grundstein•Christopher B. Skinner•Abigail L. S. Swann
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/5/3
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
Plant physiological responses to rising CO2 have been shown to contribute to increasing extreme heat; but their impacts on co-occurrences of high heat and humidity have not been assessed previously. Since heat stress depends on both, reductions in evapotranspiration and increases in sensible heat ca...
BiogeochemistryClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41612-025-01018-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Water limitation regulates positive feedback of increased ecosystem respiration
Qin Zhang•Chuixiang Yi•Georgia Destouni•Georg Wohlfahrt•Yakov Kuzyakov等 18 人
Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024
•2024/8/7
•00 p.1-7
Terrestrial ecosystem respiration increases exponentially with temperature, constituting a positive feedback loop accelerating global warming. However, the response of ecosystem respiration to temperature strongly depends on water availability, yet where and when the water effects are important, is ...
Ecosystem ecologyEnvironmental microbiologyHydrology
10.1038/S41559-024-02501-W
ISSN:2397-334X
Offshore wave and wind energy development in the Southern Hemisphere will remain optimal between 20°E and 180°E by 2100
Xiaohu Zhao•Guohe Huang•Yongping Li•Chen Lu•Chuyin Tian等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/6/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Wave and offshore-wind energies offer promising alternatives to fossil fuels, yet their combined potential under climate change remains poorly understood. Here we assess how climate change may affect this potential over the coming century, using outputs from fifteen global climate models included in...
Climate-change impactsOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-02437-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Projected and historical amplification of moisture fluxes towards Antarctica by synoptic eddies
Patrick Martineau•Hua Lu•Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/2
0Synoptic weather systems play a crucial role in transporting moisture to Antarctica. Climate models project significant changes in these systems, including a wintertime intensification and a summertime poleward shift, with implications for Antarctic ice mass balance. Our analysis of CMIP6 model outp...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01376-X
ISSN:2397-3722
The slowdown of increasing groundwater storage in response to climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau
Longhuan Wang•Binghao Jia•Xing Yuan•Zhenghui Xie•Kun Yang等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/20
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The change of groundwater storage (GWS) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is vital for water resources management and regional sustainability, but its estimation has large uncertainty due to insufficient hydrological measurements and diverse future climate scenarios. Here, we employ high-resolution land s...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00840-W
ISSN:2397-3722
North Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast enhanced by wind and ocean warming
Ying Lu•Yuanlong Li•Pengfei Lin•Lijing Cheng•Kai Ge等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/6/28
•00 p.1-9
High salinities in the Atlantic and low salinities in the Pacific are critical ocean features, impacting ocean circulations and climate. Here, using observational data, we reveal that the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast has amplified during the past half-century. Notably, in the 0–800 m, 20°–40° ...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-024-02033-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Global influence of soil texture on ecosystem water limitation
F. J. P. Wankmüller•L. Delval•P. Lehmann•M. J. Baur•A. Cecere等 9 人
Nature
2024
•2024/10/23
•00 p.1-8
Low soil moisture and high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) cause plant water stress and lead to a variety of drought responses, including a reduction in transpiration and photosynthesis1,2. When soils dry below critical soil moisture thresholds, ecosystems transition from energy to water limitation as...
Climate and Earth system modellingEcophysiologyHydrology
10.1038/S41586-024-08089-2
ISSN:0028-0836
Atmospheric circulation regimes modulating Eurasian winter decadal cooling
Juncong Li•Xiaodan Chen•Zhiping Wen•Shengping He•Yuanyuan Guo等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/10/22
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The Eurasian winter cooling observed in the early 21st century, which contrasted with ongoing global warming, was initially attributed to Arctic warming until atmospheric internal variability became the prevailing explanation when the cooling ceased despite unabated Arctic warming. Yet the atmospher...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01228-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Irina Melnikova•Tomohiro Hajima•Hideo Shiogama•Michiya Hayashi•Akihiko Ito等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-14
The Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest tropical forest, plays a crucial role in climate regulation but faces risks of dieback under climate change. Here, we examine the Amazon dieback projections from state-of-the-art Earth System Models under high-emission scenarios extending into the 23rd cent...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental healthProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02606-5
ISSN:2662-4435
North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
Edward Armstrong•Miikka Tallavaara•Peter O. Hopcroft•Paul J. Valdes
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/9/8
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
The Sahara region has experienced periodic wet periods over the Quaternary and beyond. These North African Humid Periods (NAHPs) are astronomically paced by precession which controls the intensity of the African monsoon system. However, most climate models cannot reconcile the magnitude of these eve...
Animal migrationAtmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingCryospheric sciencePalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41467-023-41219-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
Wenjun Zhang•Feng Jiang•Malte F. Stuecker•Fei-Fei Jin•Axel Timmermann
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/5/25
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-8
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-021-23411-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Sea surface warming patterns drive hydrological sensitivity uncertainties
Shipeng Zhang•Philip Stier•Guy Dagan•Chen Zhou•Minghuai Wang
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/5/25
•00 p.1-9
The increase in global-mean precipitation with global-mean temperature (hydrological sensitivity; $$\eta$$ ) is constrained by the atmospheric energy budget, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Here we apply warming patch experiments to a climate model to demonstrate that the spatial pattern of sea...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01678-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Increase in ocean-onto-land droughts and their drivers under anthropogenic climate change
Yansong Guan•Xihui Gu•Louise J. Slater•Jiabo Yin•Jianfeng Li等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/22
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Ocean-onto-land droughts (OTLDs)—i.e., droughts originating over the oceans and migrating onto land—are a recently identified phenomenon with severe natural and human impacts. However, the influence of anthropogenic emissions on past and future changes in OTLDs and their underlying mechanisms remain...
AttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41612-023-00523-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Urgent need to improve modelled sensitivity of evaporation to vegetation change
Dashan Wang•Zhenzhong Zeng
Nature Water
2024
•2024/2/19
•Vol.2 No.3 p.211-214
Earth system model projections of vegetation–climate feedback frequently depend on inaccurate values of evaporation sensitivity to vegetation changes, potentially resulting in misleading conclusions. A promising avenue involves improving the transpiration partitioning parameterizations and incorpora...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S44221-024-00203-Y
ISSN:2731-6084
Mechanisms and quantification: How anthropogenic aerosols weaken the East Asian summer monsoon
Yiwen Lang•Jing Zhang•Jin Zhao•Yuhang Gong•Tian Han等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
Anthropogenic aerosols could weaken the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This study investigated the regional effects of varying aerosol optical depth (AOD) on the EASM through qualitative and quantitative analyses for three subregions in eastern China. After assessing 38 CMIP6 models, four models ...
AttributionClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S41612-025-00903-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate
Shantong Sun•Andrew F. Thompson•Jimin Yu•Lixin Wu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/9/4
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
Models and proxy data suggest multi-centennial nutrient reorganization and biological productivity changes under sustained climate warming. These changes have traditionally been attributed to processes in the Southern Ocean. Here we instead show that transient overturning circulation adjustments, as...
Carbon cyclePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-52200-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Impact of the centennial changes in ENSO on the rise of the Chinese Qing empire
Weiyi Sun•Bin Wang•Jian Liu•David A. Bello•Ulf Büntgen等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/21
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
The demise of the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) and the rise of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) marked an epochal moment in Chinese and world history. Attention has been given to the North China droughts during 1627–1643 that destabilized the Ming Dynasty. However, there is little attention paid to how clim...
Atmospheric dynamicsHistoryPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41612-025-00950-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic fingerprints in daily precipitation revealed by deep learning
Yoo-Geun Ham•Jeong-Hwan Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Daehyun Kim•Tim Li等 7 人
Nature
2023
•2023/8/30
•00 p.1-7
According to twenty-first century climate-model projections, greenhouse warming will intensify rainfall variability and extremes across the globe1–4. However, verifying this prediction using observations has remained a substantial challenge owing to large natural rainfall fluctuations at regional sc...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06474-X
ISSN:0028-0836
Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Wang Yanfeng•Huang Ping
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/5/4
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
Fires in South America have profound effects on climate change and air quality. Although anthropogenic forcing has exacerbated drought and fire risks, the fire emissions and aerosol pollution in the southern Amazon and the Pantanal region showed a consistent long-term decrease during the dry season ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-022-30104-1
ISSN:2041-1723
A warming climate will make Australian soil a net emitter of atmospheric CO2
R. A. Viscarra Rossel•M. Zhang•T. Behrens•R. Webster
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/26
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Understanding the change in soil organic carbon (C) stock in a warmer climate and the effect of current land management on that stock is critical for soil and environmental conservation and climate policy. By simulation modeling, we predicted changes in Australia’s soil organic C stock from 2010 to ...
BiogeochemistryEnvironmental healthEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00619-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Manure amendment can reduce rice yield loss under extreme temperatures
Zhu Xiangcheng•Chen Jin•Huang Shan•Li Weiwei•Penuelas Josep等 14 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/6/27
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
Extreme temperatures are predicted to become increasingly common due to climate change, threatening the sustainability and profitability of global rice production. Manure amendment is a common agricultural practice to improve soil fertility and increase crop yields, but whether this practice modulat...
AgroecologyHeat
10.1038/S43247-022-00481-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes
Brian Medeiros•Amy C. Clement•James J. Benedict•Bosong Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2021
•2021/3/17
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-10
Although societally important, extreme precipitation is difficult to represent in climate models. This study shows one robust aspect of extreme precipitation across models: extreme precipitation over tropical oceans is strengthened through a positive feedback with cloud-radiative effects. This conne...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-021-00174-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Expanding compound heat and ultraviolet radiation stress amplifies exposure risks for elderly populations
Ruiying Zhao•Yuheng Yang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/13
0Extreme heat and heightened ultraviolet radiation are both projected to intensify under climate change, posing increasing risks to public health. Individual differences and demographic trends further complicate the concurrent heat and high ultraviolet stress, leaving global patterns of the compound ...
Climate changeEnvironmental health
10.1038/S43247-025-03070-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Projections of global road risk exposed to landslides under climate change
Yu Duan•Mingtao Ding•Yufeng He•Hongkai Chen•Hao Zheng等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/9
0Climate change-driven rainfall extremes are increasingly threatening global road infrastructure through amplified landslide hazards. Here we quantified global landslide susceptibility by coupling seven machine learning models with ensemble projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project P...
Natural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-03073-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Multi-task machine learning improves multi-seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole
Ling Fenghua•Luo Jing-Jia•Li Yue•Tang Tao•Bai Lei等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/12/12
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
As one of the most predominant interannual variabilities, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts great socio-economic impacts globally, especially on Asia, Africa, and Australia. While enormous efforts have been made since its discovery to improve both climate models and statistical methods for better...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-022-35412-0
ISSN:2041-1723
A functional vulnerability framework for biodiversity conservation
Auber Arnaud•Waldock Conor•Maire Anthony•Goberville Eric•Albouy Camille等 20 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/1
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-13
Setting appropriate conservation strategies in a multi-threat world is a challenging goal, especially because of natural complexity and budget limitations that prevent effective management of all ecosystems. Safeguarding the most threatened ecosystems requires accurate and integrative quantification...
Community ecologyEcological modellingEcology
10.1038/S41467-022-32331-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties
Basheer Mohammed•Nechifor Victor•Calzadilla Alvaro•Gebrechorkos Solomon•Pritchard David等 10 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/1/9
•Vol.13 No.1 p.48-57
The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive manageme...
Civil engineeringClimate changeEconomicsHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-022-01556-6
ISSN:1758-678X
Frequency of the winter temperature extremes over Siberia dominated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Wang Huan•Zuo Zhiyan•Qiao Liang•Zhang Kaiwen•Sun Cheng等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/11/4
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Widespread observed and projected increases in warm extremes, along with decreases in cold extremes, have been confirmed as being consistent with global and regional warming. Here we disclosed that the decadal variation in the frequency of the surface air temperature (SAT) extremes over Siberia in w...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-022-00307-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming
Guojian Wang•Wenju Cai•Agus Santoso
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-6
Previous examination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) response to greenhouse warming shows increased variability in the eastern pole but decreased variability in the western pole before 2100. The opposing response is due to a shallowing equatorial thermocline promoting sea surface temperature (SST) ...
Climate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-49401-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Jennifer Vanos•Gisel Guzman-Echavarria•Jane W. Baldwin•Coen Bongers•Kristie L. Ebi等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/11/29
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-14
Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to impro...
Environmental healthRisk factors
10.1038/S41467-023-43121-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Reduced water loss rather than increased photosynthesis controls CO2-enhanced water-use efficiency
Weiwei Zhan•Xu Lian•Jiangong Liu•Jisu Han•Yu Huang等 9 人
Nature Ecology & Evolution
2025
•2025/7/11
•00 p.1-14
Numerous leaf-level experiments suggest that plant intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increases under elevated CO2 because of reduced stomatal conductance and enhanced photosynthesis. However, it remains elusive whether this response can be extrapolated to the ecosystem scale, because confounding...
Carbon cycleClimate-change ecologyClimate-change impactsEcophysiologyEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41559-025-02761-0
ISSN:2397-334X
No significant projected climate change effects on the geographic ranges of marine aquaculture species under the sustainable scenario (SSP 1-1.9, 1.5°C warming)
Amy Leigh Mackintosh•Griffin Goldstein Hill•Mark John Costello•Jorge Assis
Npj Ocean Sustainability
2025
•2025/12/27
•Vol.5 No.1 p.70
Aquaculture is increasingly relied upon for global seafood production, projected to be the leading supplier by 2030. Climate change impacts on species health and industry productivity are already evident, creating uncertainties around long-term aquaculture development. While these impacts have been ...
Climate-change ecologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S44183-025-00178-7
ISSN:2731-426X
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
Kai Kornhuber•Corey Lesk•Carl F. Schleussner•Jonas Jägermeyr•Peter Pfleiderer等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/7/4
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-10
Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and cl...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-023-38906-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway
Junting Zhong•Xiaoye Zhang•Da Zhang•Deying Wang•Lifeng Guo等 13 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/29
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Due to sizeable anthropogenic CO2 emissions, China’s transition towards carbon neutrality will reshape global CO2 emissions, offering insights into warming levels, extreme events, overshoot, tipping points, and regional climate impacts. Here we develop an interdisciplinary and multi-model framework ...
Climate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-62983-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990
B. H. Samset•C. Zhou•J. S. Fuglestvedt•M. T. Lund•J. Marotzke等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/11/1
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-6
The change in global mean surface temperature is a crucial and broadly used indicator of the evolution of climate change. Any decadal scale changes in warming rate are however obfuscated by internal variability. Here we show that the surface temperature increase through the recent La Nina influenced...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-01061-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Global warming intensifies pantropical coupling and its control on northern hemisphere tropical cyclones
Haikun Zhao•Jun Gao•Philip J. Klotzbach•Xiangbo Feng•Liguang Wu等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/16
0How tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency will change under anthropogenic warming remains one of the most debated questions in climate science. Increasing evidence points to the importance of pantropical climate interactions in shaping extreme weather, yet their influence on TCs and their response...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01412-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Projected poleward migration of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink region under high emissions
Precious Mongwe•Luke Gregor•Jerry Tjiputra•Judith Hauck•Takamitsu Ito等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/2
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-13
The Southern Ocean is a major region of ocean carbon uptake, but its future changes remain uncertain under climate change. Here we show the projected shift in the Southern Ocean CO2 sink using a suite of Earth System Models, revealing changes in the mechanism, position and seasonality of the carbon ...
Carbon cycleClimate change
10.1038/S43247-024-01382-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming
Zhaoqi Zeng•Wenxiang Wu•Josep Peñuelas•Yamei Li•Wenzhe Jiao等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Flash droughts pose large threats to crop yields and ecosystem services due to their sudden onset and rapid intensification, arousing wide public concern in a warming climate. Their long-term characteristics of change, underlying mechanisms, and especially potential impacts on agriculture, forests, ...
Environmental healthHydrology
10.1038/S41612-023-00468-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Disturbance suppresses the aboveground carbon sink in North American boreal forests
Jonathan A. Wang•Alessandro Baccini•Mary Farina•James T. Randerson•Mark A. Friedl
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/4/29
•Vol.11 No.5 p.435-441
Climate change is altering vegetation and disturbance dynamics in boreal ecosystems. However, the aggregate impact of these changes on boreal carbon budgets is not well understood. Here we combined multiple satellite datasets to estimate annual stocks and changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) across ...
BiogeochemistryEcologyEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41558-021-01027-4
ISSN:1758-678X
To what extent can the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau influence the East Asian summer precipitation?
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/1
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) has experienced significant interannual variations during the past decades. Previous studies have primarily focused on the origins of OVTP rather than its climate impact. This study reveals that OVTP during its peak season (May–July) explains up to 15...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00508-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Imminent rapid decline of the Indonesian Throughflow after reaching a turning point of CO2 concentration
Shijian Hu•Xi Lu•Janet Sprintall•Cong Guan•Xiaozhou Ruan等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/24
0The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) represents the only tropical inter-ocean pathway of global ocean circulation and plays a central role in the Earth’s climate system. Climate models suggest that the ITF would be weakened under global warming, but historical observations indicate a contradictory trend...
Ocean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-025-66746-0
ISSN:2041-1723
The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Weiming Ma•Hailong Wang•Gang Chen•L. Ruby Leung•Jian Lu等 11 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/8
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model e...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-45159-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Anthropogenic climate change doubled the frequency of compound drought and heatwaves in low-income regions
Boen Zhang•Shuo Wang•Louise Slater
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Compound drought-heatwaves have garnered widespread attention due to their catastrophic consequences. However, little research has investigated inequalities in exposure to compound drought-heatwaves under climate change. Here, we reveal a significant disparity between low-income and high-income regi...
Climate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S43247-024-01894-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
Chung Eui-Seok•Kim Seong-Joong•Timmermann Axel•Ha Kyung-Ja•Lee Sang-Ki等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/4/14
•00 p.1-8
A variety of hypotheses, involving sub-ice-shelf melting, stratospheric ozone depletion and tropical teleconnections, have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion over the period of continuous satellite monitoring and corresponding model–observation discrepancy, but the iss...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-022-01339-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate
Haiyuan Yang•Haihong Guo•Zhaohui Chen•Wenju Cai•Lixin Wu等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/2/27
•Vol.15 No.3 p.301-307
Subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs) refer to swift narrow oceanic currents that flow along the western edges of global subtropical ocean basins. Earlier studies indicated that the WBCs are extending poleward under a warming climate. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resoluti...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02258-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate
Fengfei Song•Hongqiang Dong•Lixin Wu•L. Ruby Leung•Jian Lu等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/3/4
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warmin...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-025-57501-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink
Sophie Ruehr•Trevor F. Keenan•Christopher Williams•Yu Zhou•Xinchen Lu等 10 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/7/25
•00 p.1-17
Climate change has been partially mitigated by an increasing net land carbon sink in the terrestrial biosphere; understanding the processes that drive this sink is thus essential for protecting, managing and projecting this important ecosystem service. In this Review, we examine evidence for an enha...
Carbon cycleEcophysiologyEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S43017-023-00456-3
ISSN:2662-138X
Optimizing sea ice parameters mitigates the underestimation of Arctic marine access in CMIP6 climate models
Chao Min•Qinghua Yang•Hao Luo•Frank Kauker•Qi Shu等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/29
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Maritime activity in the Arctic is increasing, and climate change projections suggest that commercial vessels may soon have seasonal access to high-latitude waters. Accurate assessments of Arctic marine access are essential, yet the ability of climate models to reproduce historical navigability rema...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-025-02705-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Northern hemisphere cold air outbreaks are more likely to be severe during weak polar vortex conditions
Jinlong Huang•Peter Hitchcock•Amanda C. Maycock•Christine M. McKenna•Wenshou Tian
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/7/23
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-11
Severe cold air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy use, agriculture, and transportation. Anomalous behavior of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex provides an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of Northern Hemisphere cold air outbreaks. Here, through...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-021-00215-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems
Laibao Liu•Gang He•Mengxi Wu•Gang Liu•Haoran Zhang等 8 人
Nature Energy
2023
•2023/7/24
•00 p.1-11
Climate change modulates both energy demand and wind and solar energy supply but a globally synthetic analysis of supply–demand match (SDM) is lacking. Here, we use 12 state-of-the-art climate models to assess climate change impacts on SDM, quantified by the fraction of demand met by local wind or s...
Climate changeEnergy supply and demandRenewable energy
10.1038/S41560-023-01304-W
ISSN:2058-7546
Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia
Chai Yuanfang•Yue Yao•Slater Louise J.•Yin Jiabo•Borthwick Alistair G. L.等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/7/15
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world’s population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970–2014) and precipitation (2015–2100) gr...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-31782-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Evolving Southern Ocean overturning in warming climates
Tingting Zhu•Wei Liu
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/25
•Vol.16 No.1 p.104490
The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has intensified in recent decades, yet the interplay between its Eulerian and eddy components under future warming remains uncertain. Using ensemble climate simulations, here we show that the Eulerian-mean MOC shifts poleward under high-emi...
PalaeoclimatePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-025-65389-5
ISSN:2041-1723
A snow-fire bridge mechanism for the 2025 Southern California winter wildfire
Shizuo Liu•Shineng Hu•Richard Seager
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/19
0In January 2025, a rare and highly destructive wildfire devastated Southern California, becoming the costliest wildfire event in recorded history. The unusual timing of this wildfire suggests the possibility of unique remote, large-scale climatic precursors that differ from those of previous wildfir...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S41467-026-70827-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Seasonal and regional jet stream changes and drivers
Philipp Breul•Paulo Ceppi•Isla R. Simpson•Tim Woollings
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/27
•00 p.1-19
The eddy-driven jet streams, which are regions of strong westerly wind in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, exert a leading influence on regional climate. In this Review, we outline the seasonally and regionally varying drivers, characteristics and changes in the jet streams. State-of-the-art m...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S43017-025-00749-9
ISSN:2662-138X
Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019
Fengfei Song•L. Ruby Leung•Jian Lu•Lu Dong•Wenyu Zhou等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/6/21
•00 p.1-8
Tropical rainfall exhibits a prominent annual cycle, with characteristic amplitude and phase representing the range between wet and dry seasons and their onset timing, respectively. Previous studies note enhanced amplitude over ocean and delayed phase over land in model projections of global warming...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41558-021-01066-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Weakening of decadal variation of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall under global warming
Yeyan Jiang•Juan Li•Bin Wang•Youngmin Yang•Zhiwei Zhu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/11
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Over the past century, Northern Hemisphere (NH) land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) experienced significant decadal to multidecadal variations, mainly driven by an east–west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast over the Pacific (EWPC) and an interhemispheric North Atlantic–South Indian Ocean SST dipole ...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00441-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Arctic warming as a potential trigger for the warm blob in the northeast Pacific
Huan-Huan Chen•Yuntao Wang•Xichen Li•Liying Wan•Yeping Yuan等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/19
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
The northeast (NE) Pacific has experienced significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) in recent years, commonly known as “warm blobs.” This study examines the impact of Arctic warming, particularly in the Eastern Siberian-Chukchi Sea (ES-CS) region, on the occurrence of these warm blobs during boreal winte...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-00900-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
Christopher Horvat
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/4/13
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-8
Global climate models (GCMs) consistently underestimate the response of September Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) to warming. Modeled SIA losses are highly correlated to global mean temperature increases, making it challenging to gauge if improvements in modeled sea ice derive from improved sea-ice models...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-22004-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate
Mackenzie M. Weaver•Andra J. Garner•Dhrubajyoti Samanta•Michael E. Mann•Benjamin P. Horton
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/3
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-16
Evolving tropical cyclone characteristics are expected to amplify coastal hazards in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns from >64,000 statistically-downscaled tropical cyclones that impact Southeast Asian coastlines from the histor...
Natural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02566-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Moist heatwaves intensified by entrainment of dry air that limits deep convection
Suqin Q. Duan•Fiaz Ahmed•J. David Neelin
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/7/25
•00 p.1-8
Moist heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics pose substantial risks to society, yet the dynamics governing their intensity are not fully understood. The onset of deep convection arising from hot, moist near-surface air has been thought to limit the magnitude of moist heatwaves. Here we use reanalys...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01498-Y
ISSN:1752-0894
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean
Alexandra Jahn•Marika M. Holland•Jennifer E. Kay
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/3/5
•00 p.1-13
Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variabilit...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43017-023-00515-9
ISSN:2662-138X
Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming
Soong-Ki Kim•Soon-Il An
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/11/11
•00 p.1-7
Global warming is expected to be able to trigger abrupt transitions in various components of the climate system. Most studies focus on abrupt changes in the mean state of the system, while transitions in climate variability are less well understood. Here, we use multimodel simulations to show that s...
Climate-change impactsClimate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-024-02171-3
ISSN:1758-678X
The increasing influence of atmospheric moisture transport on hydrometeorological extremes in the Euromediterranean region with global warming
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo•José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez•Raquel Nieto•Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano•Luis Gimeno
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
The Euromediterranean area is a key region in which the link between atmospheric moisture transport and hydrometeorological extremes concerns. Atmospheric rivers, the main moisture transport mechanism affecting the region, play a notable role in extreme precipitation there. Moreover, moisture transp...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S43247-024-01787-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Nathan P. Gillett•Megan Kirchmeier-Young•Aurélien Ribes•Hideo Shiogama•Gabriele C. Hegerl等 15 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/1/18
•Vol.11 No.3 p.207-212
Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming ...
AttributionClimate change
10.1038/S41558-020-00965-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Potential impact of tropopause sharpness on the structure and strength of the general circulation
Boljka Lina•Birner Thomas
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/12/9
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
The wintertime extratropical general circulation may be viewed as being primarily governed by interactions between Rossby waves and the background flow. These Rossby waves propagate vertically and meridionally away from their sources and amplify within the core of the tropopause-level jet, which act...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-022-00319-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes
Wenju Cai•Benjamin Ng•Tao Geng•Fan Jia•Lixin Wu等 17 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/18
•00 p.1-12
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events. Whether such changes are linked to anthropogenic warming, however, is largely unknown. In this Perspective, we consider anthropogenic imp...
Atmospheric scienceAttributionClimate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43017-023-00427-8
ISSN:2662-138X
Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate
Jordan I. Christian•Elinor R. Martin•Jeffrey B. Basara•Jason C. Furtado•Jason A. Otkin等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/25
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-10
Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland ...
AgricultureProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00826-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Tension between spatial pattern and hydrological adaptability in early Yangtze River Basin settlements
Jiayin Zhang•Fang Wang•Ying Dong•Shaoyi Mao•Changping Zhang等 12 人
Nature Cities
2026
•2026/5/22
•00 p.1-10
Early settlements faced hydrological opportunities and constraints that informed transitions to urban living. Along the way, imbalances between urban expansion and infrastructural development and hydrological systems could threaten the sustainability of growing settlements. Here using archeological ...
Developing worldGeographyHistory
10.1038/S44284-026-00446-8
ISSN:2731-9997
Recent pronounced warming on the Mongolian Plateau boosted by internal climate variability
Qingyu Cai•Wen Chen•Shangfeng Chen•Shang-Ping Xie•Jinling Piao等 7 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/2/14
•00 p.1-8
Exceptionally strong summertime warming occurred over the Mongolian Plateau between 1986 and 2004, at a rate that was three times the average terrestrial warming in the Northern Hemisphere. The physical processes responsible for this extreme warming remain unclear. Here we show that the synchronous ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01377-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Reversed tropical-Arctic teleconnection under climate change
Wenchao Tang•Bo Sun•Noel Keenlyside•Fei Li•Shengping He等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/17
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3680
Arctic spring surface air temperature (SAT), as a critical climate indicator of spring climate change in the region, exhibits notable interannual variability amid rapid Arctic warming. However, the extent to which this variability is linked to the tropics remains unclear. This study identifies a rev...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-025-01243-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change
Xinyue Zhang•Jason P. Evans•Arden L. Burrell
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/5
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Drylands have low biological productivity compared to non-drylands, making many human activities within them sensitive to long-term trends. Trends in the Aridity Index over several decades indicate increasing aridity in the drylands, which has been linked to increasing occurrence of desertification....
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactGeographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01463-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Southern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming
Wang Shengpeng•Jing Zhao•Wu Lixin•Sun Shantong•Peng Qihua等 8 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/1/3
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) exert devastating impacts on ecosystems and have been revealed to increase in their incidence, duration, and intensity in response to greenhouse warming. The biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) are generally regarded as thermal refugia for marin...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-35666-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Improve the projection of East China summer precipitation with emergent constraints
Huanhuan Zhu•Zhihong Jiang•Laurent Li•Wei Li•Sheng Jiang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/4
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Under global warming, summer precipitation over East China was projected to increase by current state-of-the-art climate models, but a large inter-model spread exists. Here we try to reduce the projection uncertainty by imposing constraints. Our procedure consists of first decomposing the projected ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00863-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes
Chris Huntingford•Peter M. Cox•Paul D. L. Ritchie•Joseph J. Clarke•Isobel M. Parry等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/4/4
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extreme tempe...
Climate and Earth system modellingGovernanceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00626-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Temperature effect on erosion-induced disturbances to soil organic carbon cycling
Wang Zhengang•Zhang Yizhe•Govers Gerard•Tang Guoping•Quine Timothy A.等 10 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/1/30
•Vol.13 No.2 p.174-181
Erosion exerts control on soil organic carbon (SOC) and both erosion and SOC are affected by climate. To what extent temperature controls the coupling between these erosion–C interactions remains unclear. Using 137Cs and SOC inventories from catchments spanning different climates, we find that incre...
Biogeochemistry
10.1038/S41558-022-01562-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Large-scale aggregation of humid heatwaves exacerbated by coastal oceanic warming
Fenying Cai•Dieter Gerten•Keer Zhang•Tuantuan Zhang•Song Yang等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/3/24
•00 p.1-7
Large-scale concurrences of humid heatwaves substantially escalate the risks of heat-related mortality. However, quantifying the origins of these concurrent extremes remains challenging. Here we use a complex network approach applied to climate reanalysis data to show that the observed intensificati...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41561-026-01952-Z
ISSN:1752-0894
Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability
Wenyu Zhou•L. Ruby Leung•Jian Lu
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/5/22
•00 p.1-8
Arctic amplification—the amplified surface warming in the Arctic relative to the globe—is a robust feature of climate change. However, there is a considerable spread in the reported magnitude of Arctic amplification. Whereas earlier observations and model simulations suggested that the Arctic has be...
AttributionClimate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01441-1
ISSN:1752-0894
Past and future adverse response of terrestrial water storages to increased vegetation growth in drylands
Kai Liu•Xueke Li•Shudong Wang•Guangsheng Zhou
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/11
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
The response of terrestrial water storages to dryland vegetation growth remains poorly understood. Using multiple proxies from satellite observations and model outputs, we show an overall increase (decrease) in vegetation growth (terrestrial water storages) across drylands globally during 1982–2016....
Environmental sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-023-00437-9
ISSN:2397-3722
The 2023/24 El Niño event exhibited unusually weak extratropical teleconnections
Lei Zhang•Yanying Chen•Kristopher B. Karnauskas•Chunzai Wang•Matthew Collins等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/28
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a major driver of global climate and weather variability through atmospheric teleconnections. However, the 2023/24 El Niño event, despite ranking as the fourth strongest since 1979, exhibited an unusually weak Pacific-North American pattern. Here we show that this...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02584-8
ISSN:2662-4435
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
McCrystall Michelle R.•Stroeve Julienne•Serreze Mark•Forbes Bruce C.•Screen James A.
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/30
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-12
As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-27031-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Divergent response of aridity index to historical land use and land cover change
Tao Tang•Jun Ge•Haiyun Shi•Junji Cao
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-5
By using model simulations, we show that historical land use and land cover change since 1850 has impacted aridity index (AI) worldwide, causing divergent responses in different regions. Locally, AI tends to increase (getting humid) in reforestation regions and most humid regions. Owing to these cha...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-00978-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Unintended consequences of combating desertification in China
Wang Xunming•Ge Quansheng•Geng Xin•Wang Zhaosheng•Gao Lei等 35 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/2/28
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Since the early 2000s, China has carried out extensive “grain-for-green” and grazing exclusion practices to combat desertification in the desertification-prone region (DPR). However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of these practices remain unclear. We quantify and compare the changes in...
Decision makingEnvironmental economicsEnvironmental impactNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-023-36835-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Hemisphere-asymmetric tropical cyclones response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing
Cao Jian•Zhao Haikun•Wang Bin•Wu Liguang
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/22
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-8
How anthropogenic forcing could change tropical cyclones (TCs) is a keen societal concern owing to its significant socio-economic impacts. However, a global picture of the anthropogenic aerosol effect on TCs has not yet emerged. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol emission can reduce northern he...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41467-021-27030-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Xuezhi Tan•Xinxin Wu•Zeqin Huang•Jianyu Fu•Xuejin Tan等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/5/18
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-15
Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic i...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-023-38510-9
ISSN:2041-1723
The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China
Zhang Yali•Hajat Shakoor•Zhao Liang•Chen Huiqi•Cheng Liangliang等 10 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/12/13
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-8
Frequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine heal...
Environmental impactEpidemiology
10.1038/S41467-022-35008-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Global warming drives an increase in pre-monsoon tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean
Kaiyue Shan•Fengfei Song•Yanluan Lin•Pao-Shin Chu•Lixin Wu等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/19
•Vol.17 No.1 p.29300
Early-season tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly in the pre-monsoon period (April–June) of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin, often cause exceptionally severe damage to populated landmasses despite being less frequent. A critical uncertainty is how these TCs respond to anthropogenic climate chang...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-026-69818-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Recent south-central Andes water crisis driven by Antarctic amplification is unprecedented over the last eight centuries
Shijie Wang•Mao Hu•Feng Chen•Xiaoen Zhao•Martín A. Hadad等 14 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.9370
Rivers originating from the Andes Mountains are vital water sources for agricultural and societal needs in South America, yet are increasingly threatened by climate change. Here we reconstruct streamflow of the Negro River (Rió Negro) in northern Patagonia over the past 827 years using tree-ring rec...
Climate changeHydrologyNatural hazardsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02858-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Thermodynamic effect dictates influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Eurasia winter temperature
Huan Wang•Zhiyan Zuo•Renhe Zhang•Li Peng•Kaiwen Zhang等 15 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has garnered attention for its important role in shaping surface air temperature (SAT) patterns over Eurasia. While Eurasian winter SAT was traditionally attributed to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with the AMO, a careful exami...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-024-00686-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming
Yongxiao Liang•Nathan P. Gillett•Adam H. Monahan
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/6/5
•Vol.14 No.6 p.608-614
Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between the past global warming trend and projected warming across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in projected warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Internal climate variability in the eastern tropical P...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-024-02017-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Philippine archipelago and South China Sea monsoon plus ocean cooling buffer Northwestern Pacific super typhoons
Tian Ma•Wei-Dong Yu•Sabrina Speich•Hai-Kun Zhao•Rui Xin等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/11
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
In dramatic contrast to the continuous intensification of strong Atlantic hurricanes moving into the Gulf of Mexico, super typhoons (SuperTYs) originating from the Northwest Pacific significantly weaken after entering the South China Sea (SCS). Using an idealized cyclone intensity model, we show tha...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-62334-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins
Jie He•Kezhou Lu•Boniface Fosu•Stephan A. Fueglistaler
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/4/9
•00 p.1-6
The three tropical basins each have unique roles in the global climate system. The main mechanism by which tropical oceans affect remote climate is the latent heating of local precipitation. Here we report major differences in hydrological sensitivity (precipitation change per unit surface warming) ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-024-01982-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
Fenying Cai•Shuheng Lin•Dieter Gerten•Song Yang•Xingwen Jiang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Tropical convection anomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, remains ch...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01140-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World
Alkama Ramdane•Forzieri Giovanni•Duveiller Gregory•Grassi Giacomo•Liang Shunlin等 6 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/2/1
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over th...
Carbon cycleClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationClimate-change policyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-28305-9
ISSN:2041-1723
High Arctic Lake sediments show that Heinrich Event 2 was preceded by summer warming
Willem G. M. van der Bilt•William J. D’Andrea•Jostein Bakke
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/6/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Throughout the Last Glacial period, episodic deposition of Ice Rafted Debris marks phases of circum-North Atlantic ice sheet instability. The causes of these Heinrich Events remain contested; while initially attributed to internal ice sheet dynamics, there is a growing consensus that favors external...
LimnologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02440-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Enhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane’s climate forcing
Mingxu Liu•Yu Song•Hitoshi Matsui•Fang Shang•Ling Kang等 8 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/4/11
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
The hydroxyl radical (OH), as the central atmospheric oxidant, controls the removal rates of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. It is being suggested that OH levels would decrease with reductions of nitrogen oxides and ozone levels by climate polices, but this remains unsettled. Here, we show that ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-024-47436-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai
Chen Liang•Jiacan Yuan•Renhe Zhang•Xu Tang•Gunter Schumann
Nature Mental Health
2025
•2025/12/2
•00 p.1-13
Residents of low-latitude megacities face growing vulnerability to humid-heat stress under urbanization and global warming, yet limited research has assessed the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) linked to humid-heat exposures in these cities. Here we quantify the hospital a...
Astronomy and planetary scienceRisk factors
10.1038/S44220-025-00519-Y
ISSN:2731-6076
Impacts of current and climate induced changes in atmospheric stagnation on Indian surface PM2.5 pollution
Mi Zhou•Yuanyu Xie•Chenggong Wang•Lu Shen•Denise L. Mauzerall
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/28
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Severe PM2.5 pollution threatens public health in India. Atmospheric stagnation traps emitted pollutants, worsening their health impacts. Global warming is anticipated to alter future stagnation patterns, impacting the effectiveness of air quality policies. Here, we develop a region-specific index t...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-024-51462-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Regional sensitivity patterns of Arctic Ocean acidification revealed with machine learning
Krasting John P.•De Palma Maurizia•Sonnewald Maike•Dunne John P.•John Jasmin G.
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/4/19
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-11
Ocean acidification is a consequence of the absorption of anthropogenic carbon emissions and it profoundly impacts marine life. Arctic regions are particularly vulnerable to rapid pH changes due to low ocean buffering capacities and high stratification. Here, an unsupervised machine learning methodo...
Carbon cycleClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-022-00419-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate
Kaiyue Shan•Yanluan Lin•Pao-Shin Chu•Xiping Yu•Fengfei Song
Nature
2023
•2023/9/27
•00 p.1-7
Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3–5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oc...
Climate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-023-06544-0
ISSN:0028-0836
Human-induced changes in extreme cold surges across the Northern Hemisphere
Yu Nie•Ying Sun•Xuebin Zhang•Gang Chen
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/29
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Extreme cold surges, very large temperature drops over a short period of time, have serious impacts on human health, energy supply and ecosystems. While changes in temperature variability and cold extremes in a warming climate are well understood, changes in extreme cold surges and their driving mec...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-62576-2
ISSN:2041-1723
The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming
Jennifer V. Mecking•Sybren S. Drijfhout
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/10/12
•00 p.1-8
The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere lati...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-023-01829-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Multifaceted changes in water availability with a warmer climate
Binglan Gu•Sha Zhou•Bofu Yu•Kirsten L. Findell•Benjamin R. Lintner
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/24
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Climate warming alters spatial and seasonal patterns of surface water availability (P-E), affecting runoff and terrestrial water storage. However, a comprehensive assessment of these changes across various hydroclimates remains lacking. We develop a multi-model ensemble approach to classify global t...
Hydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-00913-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Anthropogenic warming projected to drive a decline in global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 simulations
Kai Zhao•Haikun Zhao•Philip J. Klotzbach•Liguang Wu•Chao Wang等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/20
•Vol.9 No.1 p.580
Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a warming climate remain highly uncertain, with model simulations often yielding conflicting results. Here, through an analysis of 26 CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, we project a decline in global TC frequency of 2–10% by the late 21st century....
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01330-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation
Chemke Rei•Yuval Janni
Nature
2023
•2023/4/17
•00 p.1-4
By accounting for most of the poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport in the tropics, the Hadley circulation largely affects the latitudinal patterns of precipitation and temperature at low latitudes. To increase our preparednesses for human-induced climate change, it is thus critical to ac...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41586-023-05903-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century
Arie Staal•Ingo Fetzer•Lan Wang-Erlandsson•Joyce H. C. Bosmans•Stefan C. Dekker等 8 人
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/10/5
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-8
Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hyste...
ComplexityForest ecologyMultistabilityTropical ecology
10.1038/S41467-020-18728-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Climate models exaggerate greenhouse gas impact on recent interhemispheric temperature patterns and tropical climate
Chengfei He•Amy C. Clement•Mark A. Cane•Alex Gonzalez•Young-Oh Kwon等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/27
•Vol.17 No.1 p.32650
The interhemispheric thermal contrast, defined as the mean sea surface temperature difference between the northern and southern hemispheres, crucially influences tropical climate. Climate models show a positive interhemispheric thermal contrast trend since 1950, with more warming in the northern hem...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-026-69783-5
ISSN:2041-1723
The impact of long-term memory on the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions
Yuan Naiming•Franzke Christian L. E.•Xiong Feilin•Fu Zuntao•Dong Wenjie
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/9/12
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Global warming exerts a strong impact on the Earth system. Despite recent progress, Earth System Models still project a large range of possible warming levels. Here we employ a generalized stochastic climate model to derive a response operator which computes the global mean surface temperature given...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00298-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Network science disentangles internal climate variability in global spatial dependence structures
Arnob Ray•Abhirup Banerjee•Rachindra Mawalagedara•Auroop R. Ganguly
Npj Complexity
2025
•2025/8/4
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-9
A comprehensive characterization of internal climate variability (ICV) in initial-condition (IC) large ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) remains a significant challenge in climate science. In this study, we leverage the spatial connectivity structures of temperature networks to characterize IC...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate changeClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S44260-025-00048-W
ISSN:2731-8753
Summer and winter precipitation in East Asia scale with global warming at different rates
Liang Wengui•Zhang Minghua
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/7/30
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-8
Future changes of regional precipitation are of great scientific and societal interests. Large uncertainties still exist in their projections by models. Mechanistic understanding is therefore necessary. Here we demonstrate robust features of the percentage change of precipitation normalized to surfa...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-021-00219-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Historical deforestation drives strong rainfall decline across the southern Amazon basin
Jiangpeng Cui•Shilong Piao•Chris Huntingford•Tao Wang•Dominick V. Spracklen
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/13
•Vol.17 No.1 p.16420
The Amazon forest has recently experienced substantial human-induced loss of forest cover. However, the extent to which such historical deforestation has altered regional observed precipitation through inter-regional atmospheric moisture transport remains unclear. Here, we combine satellite observat...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41467-026-68361-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Beaufort sea ice loss contributes to enhanced health exposure to fire weather over Southeast Asia
Guanyu Liu•Jing Li•Tong Ying•Yueming Dong•Zhenyu Zhang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Fires are a major source of air pollutants in Southeast Asia. Over the past few decades, there has been an increase in fire activities in this region, and the causes are not entirely clear. By analyzing multiple observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as conducting climate model simulations, ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00954-9
ISSN:2397-3722
The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones
Parker Chelsea L.•Mooney Priscilla A.•Webster Melinda A.•Boisvert Linette N.
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/9
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-14
In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-022-34126-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming
von Salzen Knut•Whaley Cynthia H.•Anenberg Susan C.•Van Dingenen Rita•Klimont Zbigniew等 44 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/2
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-11
A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climat...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S43247-022-00555-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Inter-model robustness of the forced change of the ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection
Sundaresan Aneesh•Tamás Bódai
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Concerning the robustness of predicting the forced response of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation-Indian summer monsoon (ENSO-ISM) teleconnection based on 9 CMIP-class models, we come to distinguish three time periods. (1) In the late 20th century, the trend was insignificant in most models, which doe...
Atmospheric dynamics
10.1038/S41612-023-00541-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Unleashing the power of the Sun: the increasing impact of the solar cycle on off-season super typhoons since the 1990s
Chau-Ron Wu•Yong-Fu Lin•I-I Lin•Jin-Yi Yu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/10/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The occurrence of super typhoons outside the normal typhoon season can result in devastating loss of life and property damage. Our research reveals that the 11-year solar cycle can affect the incidence of these off-season typhoons (from November to April) in the western North Pacific by influencing ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00495-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Emergent temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon driven by mineral associations
Katerina Georgiou•Charles D. Koven•William R. Wieder•Melannie D. Hartman•William J. Riley等 16 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/2/20
•Vol.17 No.3 p.205-212
Soil organic matter decomposition and its interactions with climate depend on whether the organic matter is associated with soil minerals. However, data limitations have hindered global-scale analyses of mineral-associated and particulate soil organic carbon pools and their benchmarking in Earth sys...
BiogeochemistryCarbon cycleClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01384-7
ISSN:1752-0894
Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower
Yong Liu•Huijun Wang•Huopo Chen•Zhongshi Zhang•Hua Li等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/5/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analys...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-023-00369-4
ISSN:2397-3722
The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
White Rachel H.•Anderson Sam•Booth James F.•Braich Ginni•Draeger Christina等 16 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/2/9
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-20
In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region of Canada and the United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, and the Canadian national temperature record was broken by 4.6 °C, with a new record temperature...
Climate-change impactsClimate sciencesNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-023-36289-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Human influence on the recent weakening of storm tracks in boreal summer
Rei Chemke•Dim Coumou
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/4/12
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Anthropogenic warming can alter large-scale circulation patterns in the atmosphere, which could have serious consequences for regional climate impacts and extreme weather. Observed thermodynamic changes in boreal extratropics have been attributed to human emissions with high confidence, but most cir...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-024-00640-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Persistent austral winter storm track weakening beyond doubling of CO2 concentrations
Rei Chemke
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/24
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-8
The winter storm track in the Southern Hemisphere has large weather and climate impacts, as it drives daily to multi-decadal variations in extratropical winds, precipitation, and temperature. In the lower mid-latitudes, where the southern parts of the continents reside, the storm track is projected ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S41467-025-57285-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake in Earth system models
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht•Vivek K. Arora•Chris D. Jones•Victor Brovkin•Tomohiro Hajima等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Current frameworks for evaluating biogeochemical climate change feedbacks in Earth System Models lack an explicit consideration of nitrogen cycling in the land and ocean spheres despite its vital role in limiting primary productivity. As coupled carbon-nitrogen cycling becomes the norm, a better und...
Climate and Earth system modellingElement cycles
10.1038/S43247-024-01943-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Disappearance of the El Niño-driven surface mass gain in West Antarctica under future climate change
Hyun-Ju Lee•Emilia Kyung Jin•Byeong-Hoon Kim•Won Sang Lee
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/11
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3570
Strong El Niño events drive substantial snowfall in West Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula, by weakening the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) through atmospheric teleconnections, increasing surface mass balance, and mitigating ice mass loss’s contribution to sea-level rise. However, we find that C...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01174-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Shifts in precipitation regimes exacerbate global inequality in grassland nitrogen cycles
Miao Zheng•Jinglan Cui•Xiaoxi Wang•Xiuming Zhang•Zhongrui Xie等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/23
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-14
Grasslands, the Earth’s largest terrestrial ecosystem, provide crucial ecosystem services through biogeochemical cycles. However, these cycles are disrupted by climate change, particularly precipitation changes, limiting grassland productivity. By synthesizing 2944 experimental observations and inte...
BiogeochemistryGrassland ecology
10.1038/S41467-025-63206-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change
Marine Lanet•Laurent Li•Antoine Ehret•Solène Turquety•Hervé Le Treut
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationFire ecology
10.1038/S41612-024-00821-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections
Boyuan Zhu•Yongzhou Cheng•Xuyue Hu•Yuanfang Chai•Wouter R. Berghuijs等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs from the Cou...
Climate changeEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00419-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs
Wenqi Sun•Sha Zhou•Bofu Yu•Yao Zhang•Trevor Keenan等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/1
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show wide...
Atmospheric scienceCarbon cycleClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-025-02145-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Global greening drives significant soil moisture loss
Yongchang Liu•Zhi Li•Yaning Chen•Liangning Jin•Feng Li等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/28
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-15
Vegetation dynamics, as fundamental terrestrial ecosystem components, regulate precipitation and evapotranspiration, directly affecting soil moisture (SM). However, global greening’s impact on SM (drying or wetting) remains uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observations, reanalysi...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-025-02470-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Counteracting greenhouse gas and aerosol influences intensify global water seasonality over the past century
Fubo Zhao•Wenbo Shi•Yiping Wu•Yanqing Lian•Qiang Li
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/18
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Variations in water availability seasonality significantly impact society and ecosystems. While many studies have focused on mean or extreme precipitation, the response of water availability seasonality, influencing yearly water distribution beyond individual extremes, to human-induced climate chang...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02025-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Distinct sources of uncertainty in simulations of the ocean biological carbon pump at different depths
Bin Wang•Katja Fennel
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/7/23
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Model uncertainty in simulating the biological carbon pump was quantified and partitioned using 14 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Uncertainty increases with depth. On the global scale, uncertainty in carbon export dominates above 900 m and uncertainty in transfer effi...
Marine biology
10.1038/S43247-024-01561-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Dissecting the vital role of dietary changes in food security assessment under climate change
Jin Zhao•Zhentao Zhang•Chuang Zhao•Zhijuan Liu•Erjing Guo等 16 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/8/17
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
National and global food security depend on both supply and demand, yet the vast majority of studies on the impact of climate change on food security have focused somewhat myopically on the supply side. Here, we assess planetary implications of the changing climate for food supply, concurrently...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01612-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation
Årthun Marius•Asbjørnsen Helene•Chafik Léon•Johnson Helen L.•Våge Kjetil
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/4/12
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-12
The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The Nordic Seas are th...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-023-37846-6
ISSN:2041-1723
An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification
Wenyu Zhou•L. Ruby Leung•Shang-Ping Xie•Jian Lu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/13
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Arctic Amplification (AA), the amplified surface warming in the Arctic relative to the globe, is a salient feature of climate change. While the basic physical picture of AA has been depicted, how its degree is determined has not been clearly understood. Here, by deciphering atmospheric heat transpor...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-024-48469-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models
Yushi Morioka•Liping Zhang•William Cooke•Masami Nonaka•Swadhin K. Behera等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/12/20
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Antarctic sea ice extent has seen a slight increase over recent decades, yet since 2016, it has undergone a sharp decline, reaching record lows. While the precise impact of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain, natural fluctuations have been shown to be important for this variability. Our study e...
Cryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-54485-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Dominant role of soil moisture in mediating carbon and water fluxes in dryland ecosystems
Steven A. Kannenberg•William R. L. Anderegg•Mallory L. Barnes•Matthew P. Dannenberg•Alan K. Knapp
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/1/4
•00 p.1-6
Drylands exert a strong influence over global interannual variability in carbon and water cycling due to their substantial heterogeneity over space and time. This variability in ecosystem fluxes presents challenges for understanding their primary drivers. Here we quantify the sensitivity of dryland ...
Carbon cycleClimate sciencesEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41561-023-01351-8
ISSN:1752-0894
Potential benefits of limiting global warming for the mitigation of temperature extremes in China
Junhong Guo•Xi Liang•Xiuquan Wang•Yurui Fan•Lvliu Liu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/29
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
In this study, we attempt to quantify the potential impacts of two global warming levels (i.e., 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) on extreme temperature indices across China. The CMIP6 dataset is first evaluated against the CN05.1 observation for the historical period of 1995–2014. Then, future spatiotemporal patt...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-023-00412-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance
Fransner Filippa•Olsen Are•Årthun Marius•Counillon François•Tjiputra Jerry等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/4/24
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource management. Here, we demonstrate that the abundance of phytoplankton, the base of ...
Marine biologyMarine chemistryOcean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-023-00791-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world
Sijia Wu•Ming Luo•Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau•Wei Zhang•Lin Wang等 21 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/22
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. W...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-58544-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Intensifying drought risk weakens vegetation resilience in global drylands
Zijie Kong•Hongbo Ling•Mingjiang Deng•Aihua Long•Bin Guo等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/2/17
•Vol.7 No.1 p.2790
Whether drought-induced vegetation loss risk and ecosystem resilience in arid regions evolve synergistically or trade off remains unclear. Here, we project that medium-to-high risk areas in global drylands will expand by 9.9%–15.3% in the future. By developing a multi-model vegetation resilience tra...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate changeEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-026-03303-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C
You Qinglong•Jiang Zhihong•Yue Xu•Guo Weidong•Liu Yonggang等 16 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/10/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-17
East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 ...
Climate changePolicy
10.1038/S41612-022-00303-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Pinya Wang•Yang Yang•Daokai Xue•Lili Ren•Jianping Tang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/11/9
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O3) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events i...
Atmospheric chemistryAttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-023-42891-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Weakened influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon since the early 2000s
Tiantian Yu•Wen Chen•Ping Huang•Gang Huang•Xianke Yang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant factor influencing the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), especially after the mid-1970s when the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) response remarkably strengthened. Here, we find that the influence of ENSO on the EASM has been diminishing ...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00983-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming
Aoyun Xue•Xin Geng•Fei-Fei Jin•Yechul Shin•Mi-Kyung Sung等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/12
0Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are be...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-66143-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future
Sandro W. Lubis•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Samson Hagos•Ming Zhao•Ziming Chen等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3750
Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of nort...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41612-025-01239-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection
Jae-Heung Park•Young-Min Yang•Yoo-Geun Ham•Hyun-Su Jo•Hyo-Jin Park等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/7
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. T...
Atmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00790-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Unraveling the mystery of recent shortened response time of ENSO to Atlantic forcing
Qi Tian•Jin-Yi Yu•Hyacinth C. Nnamchi•Tim Li•Jianping Li等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-9
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to respond to tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. However, the response time of ENSO to the TA SST forcing is not stationary but varies over decades, the reasons for which remain poorly understood. Here we show that decadal c...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-025-61130-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming
Haosu Tang•Sihan Li•Julie M. Jones•Sergi González-Herrero•Andrew Orr等 13 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/1
0During July–August 2024, East Antarctica experienced the most intense winter heatwave in the 46-year satellite era, with regional mean surface air temperatures across Dronning Maud Land exceeding the climatological mean by more than 9°C for 17 consecutive days. To explore the physical drivers and qu...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01392-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased occurrence of high impact compound events under climate change
Ridder N. N.•Ukkola A. M.•Pitman A. J.•Perkins-Kirkpatrick S. E.
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/1/12
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
While compound weather and climate events (CEs) can lead to significant socioeconomic consequences, their response to climate change is mostly unexplored. We report the first multi-model assessment of future changes in return periods for the co-occurrence of heatwaves and drought, and extreme winds ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-021-00224-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century
Nielsen David Marcolino•Pieper Patrick•Barkhordarian Armineh•Overduin Paul•Ilyina Tatiana等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/2/14
•00 p.1-8
Arctic coastal erosion damages infrastructure, threatens coastal communities and releases organic carbon from permafrost. However, the magnitude, timing and sensitivity of coastal erosion increase to global warming remain unknown. Here we project the Arctic-mean erosion rate to increase and very lik...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01281-0
ISSN:1758-678X
Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world
Parsons Luke A.•Shindell Drew•Tigchelaar Michelle•Zhang Yuqiang•Spector June T.
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/12/14
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current c...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-27328-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric teleconnections are intensified by extratropical ocean-atmosphere coupling
Masato Mori•Yu Kosaka•Bunmei Taguchi•Hiroki Tokinaga•Hiroaki Tatebe等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/3/15
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-16
The role of extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling in generating and maintaining large-scale atmospheric low-frequency variability remains an open question owing to vigorous atmospheric internal fluctuations. Here, we use coupled and uncoupled large-ensemble global model simulations to clarify how ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01282-1
ISSN:2662-4435
CO2 radiative forcing induces summer cooling over India
Jinhong Liu•Xia Qu•Gang Huang•Chenglin Lyu
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/24
•Vol.17 No.1 p.27240
In response to anthropogenic forcing, the Earth’s surface generally warms as greenhouse gases trap outgoing longwave radiation. Counterintuitively, however, some regions exhibit surface cooling against this global warming background—a phenomenon known as a warming hole. Beyond the well-documented wa...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-69875-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Geng Tao•Cai Wenju•Wu Lixin•Santoso Agus•Wang Guojian等 12 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/15
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST...
Atmospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-33930-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Increased interannual variability of Sahel rainfall under greenhouse warming
Kai Yang•Guojian Wang•Wenju Cai•Elsa Mohino•Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/27
0The Sahel is home to tens of millions of people in developing regions and is frequently influenced by extreme events such as drought and floods. Multi-model mean projections indicate an increase in Sahel mean rainfall under greenhouse warming, but how Sahel rainfall interannual variability and extre...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-67885-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture
Jianxiu Qiu•Chenxi He•Xiaoping Liu•Lun Gao•Chao Tan等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern Chin...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00808-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon extreme rainfall frequency
Devabrat Sharma•Santu Das•B. N. Goswami
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Skillful forewarning of daily extreme rainfall activity (ERA) is imperative for adaptation against disastrous threats of socio-economic loss from Indian monsoon extreme rainfall events (ERE). Yet, unlike tropical cyclone (TC) activity forecasting, no attempt has been made for seasonal prediction of ...
Climate sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-025-01032-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Dong Lu•Leung L. Ruby•Song Fengfei•Lu Jian
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/10
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-26797-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Atmospheric rivers emerge as future freshwater reserves and heat stocks
Mengqian Lu•Yurong Song•Wen Huang•Lujia Zhang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Global atmospheric rivers are major conduits for moisture and energy transport, playing a critical role in the global hydrological cycle and energy redistribution as climate changes. Here, we assess their evolving roles using observations and climate simulations. By 2100, under a high-emission scena...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02780-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Land water availability altered by historical land use and land cover change
Tao Tang•Jun Ge•Junji Cao•Haiyun Shi
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/18
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) have profound impacts on land water availability, defined as precipitation (P) minus evapotranspiration (ET), through biophysical pathways. However, such impacts have long been debated mostly due to either the inadequate consideration of the atmo...
Freshwater ecologyHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-01111-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario
Ono Jun•Watanabe Masahiro•Komuro Yoshiki•Tatebe Hiroaki•Abe Manabu
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/2/25
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
The Arctic region has warmed faster than the global mean in past decades. Future climate change projections also suggest this Arctic warming amplification will continue. Here, using 50-member historical and future scenario simulations by a single climate model, we find that Arctic warming amplificat...
Atmospheric sciencePhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-022-00354-4
ISSN:2662-4435
The significant influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability to the abrupt warming in Northeast Asia in the 1990s
Kaiwen Zhang•Zhiyan Zuo•Laura Suarez-Gutierrez•Lulei Bu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/26
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Northeast Asia experienced unprecedented abrupt warming in the 1990s since the last century. Based on a robust time series and rank frequency evaluation, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensembles of CMIP5 (MPI-GE5), CMIP6 (MPI-GE6), EC-Earth3 and IPSL-CM6A-LR were identified as the mo...
AttributionGovernance
10.1038/S41612-024-00567-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Equatorward shift of the boreal summer intertropical convergence zone in Maritime Continent and the impacts on surface black carbon concentration and public health
Tao Huang•Yefu Gu•David Lallemant•Gabriel N. C. Lau•Joseph J. Y. Sung等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/29
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
In Maritime Continent, the shift of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) location directly regulates the distribution of black carbon and hence affects public health in the region, but the mechanism and human health impacts have not yet been comprehensively revealed. Here we used multiple reanalysi...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41612-024-00593-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects
Hassan Taufiq•Allen Robert J.•Liu Wei•Shim Sungbo•van Noije Twan等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/6/27
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-12
Observations indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-a fundamental component of the ocean’s global conveyor belt-is weakening. Although causes remain uncertain, such weakening is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic emissions as...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-022-00476-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
Bonnet Rémy•Swingedouw Didier•Gastineau Guillaume•Boucher Olivier•Deshayes Julie等 9 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/10/20
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration1. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue throug...
Climate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-021-26370-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Intraseasonal shift in the wintertime North Atlantic jet structure projected by CMIP6 models
Marina García-Burgos•Blanca Ayarzagüena•David Barriopedro•Tim Woollings•Ricardo García-Herrera
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/4
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The projected winter changes of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) under climate change conditions have been extensively analysed. Previous studies have reported a squeezed and elongated EDJ. However, other changes present large uncertainties, specifically those related to the intensity and la...
Atmospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00775-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Bin Wang•Renguang Wu•Zeming Wu等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/9
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by app...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-46543-X
ISSN:2041-1723
A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming
Rebecca M. Varney•Sarah E. Chadburn•Pierre Friedlingstein•Eleanor J. Burke•Charles D. Koven等 7 人
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/11/2
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-8
Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in th...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-020-19208-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Climate effects of a future net forestation scenario in CMIP6 models
James L. Gomez•Robert J. Allen•Larry W. Horowitz•Steven T. Turnock•Rosie A. Fisher等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/8
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Forestation may reduce temperatures by lowering atmospheric CO2. However, biogeophysical changes from forestation may weaken this cooling. We use twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models to quantify the biogeochemical (carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (non-carbon cycle) effects of...
Atmospheric scienceBiogeochemistryClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01127-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing coastal exposure to extreme wave events in the Alaskan Arctic as the open water season expands
Martin Henke•Tyler Miesse•André de Souza de Lima•Celso M. Ferreira•Thomas M. Ravens
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/3/30
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Declining Arctic sea ice over recent decades has been linked to growth in coastal hazards affecting the Alaskan Arctic. In this study, climate model projections of sea ice are utilized in the simulation of an extratropical cyclone to quantify how future changes in seasonal ice coverage could affect ...
Climate-change impactsCryospheric scienceNatural hazardsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01323-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies
Wenju Cai•Yi Liu•Xiaopei Lin•Ziguang Li•Ying Zhang等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/12
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole features an anomalously high west-minus-east sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, affecting global extreme weathers. Whether the associated impact spills over to global economies is unknown. Here, we develop a nonlinear and country-hetero...
Climate-change impactsEconomics
10.1038/S41467-024-48509-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities
Wang Jun•Chen Yang•Liao Weilin•He Guanhao•Tett Simon F. B.等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/11/1
•00 p.1-6
Urban areas are experiencing strongly increasing hot temperature extremes. However, these urban heat events have seldom been the focus of traditional detection and attribution analysis designed for regional to global changes. Here we show that compound (day–night sustained) hot extremes are more dan...
AttributionClimate changeClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-021-01196-2
ISSN:1758-678X
Predicting the 2023/24 El Niño from a multi-scale and global perspective
Ruikun Hu•Tao Lian•Ting Liu•Jie Wang•Xunshu Song等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/8
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The 2023/24 El Niño ranks as the second strongest event in the twenty-first century thus far. The event exhibited a two-step warming tendency and two warming centers, which could not be explained by the heat content buildup. Here, by conducting observational analysis and model experiments, we show t...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01867-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Large inter-model spread in simulated aerosol load over Arctic sea ice
Basudev Swain•Marco Vountas•Aishwarya Singh•Linus Andrae•Ina Tegen等 10 人
Npj Clean Air
2026
•2026/6/1
•Vol.2 No.1 p.370
Before the development of AEROSNOW aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals over Arctic sea ice, comprehensive observations across the central sea-ice region were limited, and understanding of aerosol variability relied largely on models. We evaluate how sixteen CMIP6 models simulate AOD over Arctic s...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S44407-026-00080-7
ISSN:3059-2240
Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems
Zhongxiang Fang•Wenmin Zhang•Lanhui Wang•Guy Schurgers•Philippe Ciais等 11 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/8/28
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Vegetation growth may adapt to climate warming by adjusting the relationship between photosynthetic capacity and temperature. However, changes in the optimal temperature for ecosystem productivity during recent decades of warming remain uncertain. Here we provide empirical evidence that global optim...
Ecosystem ecologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01636-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Accelerated North Atlantic surface warming reshapes the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Davide Zanchettin•Angelo Rubino
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/29
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of ...
AttributionPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01804-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Soil health contributes to variations in crop production and nitrogen use efficiency
Jianming Xu•Chenchen Ren•Xiuming Zhang•Chen Wang•Sitong Wang等 16 人
Nature Food
2025
•2025/4/15
•00 p.1-13
Soil health affects both food production and environmental quality. However, quantifying its impact poses a substantial global challenge due to the scarcity of comprehensive soil health data and the complexity of disentangling its effects from other variables. Here we integrate high-resolution globa...
EcologyElement cycles
10.1038/S43016-025-01155-6
ISSN:2662-1355
Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels
Cui Tong•Li Yukun•Yang Long•Nan Yi•Li Kunbiao等 17 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/3/1
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-c...
Hydrology
10.1038/S41467-023-36804-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China
Yang Yang•Ren Lili•Wu Mingxuan•Wang Hailong•Song Fengfei等 16 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/2/18
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-7
Record rainfall and severe flooding struck eastern China in the summer of 2020. The extreme summer rainfall occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in early 2020 and spread rapidly across the globe. By disrupting human activities, substantial reductions in anthropogenic em...
Atmospheric chemistry
10.1038/S41467-022-28537-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Limited influence of the Agulhas leakage on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under present-day climate conditions
Ruize Zhang•Shantong Sun•Zhaohui Chen•Lixin Wu
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/21
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
The Agulhas leakage is expected to increase as the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds change under climate warming. An increased Agulhas leakage could potentially strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To date, however, it remains elusive how much this process could affec...
Climate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimatePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02097-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening
David B. Bonan•Andrew F. Thompson•Tapio Schneider•Laure Zanna•Kyle C. Armour等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/5/29
•00 p.1-9
The degree to which the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakens over the twenty-first century varies widely across climate models, with some predicting substantial weakening. Here we show that this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by using a thermal-wind expression that relates ...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-025-01709-0
ISSN:1752-0894
Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution
Yang Hui•Huang Xinyuan•Westervelt Daniel M.•Horowitz Larry•Peng Wei
Nature Sustainability
2022
•2022/10/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.58-68
Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015–2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we ...
Developing worldEnvironmental impactRisk factors
10.1038/S41893-022-00976-8
ISSN:2398-9629
Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire
Yu Yan•Mao Jiafu•Wullschleger Stan D.•Chen Anping•Shi Xiaoying等 9 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/3/22
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present...
Environmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-28853-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Madden–Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation
Liang Shijing•Wang Dashan•Ziegler Alan D.•Li Laurent Z. X.•Zeng Zhenzhong
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/8/18
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC indicates low-to-high confidence in trends of extreme rainfall with regional inconsistency in the tropics, where a key phenomenon causing intra-seasonal variations in weather is the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). It remains unknown how the MJO-induced extrem...
Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00291-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate
Ziming Chen•Sandro W. Lubis•Jian Lu•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Huilin Huang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/28
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but i...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01196-5
ISSN:2397-3722
The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere
Chemke Rei•Ming Yi•Yuval Janni
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/5/26
•00 p.1-5
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century, winter mid-latitude storms are projected to intensify in the ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41558-022-01368-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie•Gunnar Myhre•Øivind Hodnebrog•Philip J. Cameron-Smith•Makoto Deushi等 19 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2020
•2020/8/17
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an i...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-020-00131-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world
Xiaoye Yang•Deliang Chen•Ibrahim Wahab•Anders Burman
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/1
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Climate conditions, in complex interrelations with other socioenvironmental, economic, political and cultural factors, significantly play a key role in shaping population density and movement. However, the impacts of climate change on global human migration remain poorly understood. This study asses...
Climate changeInterdisciplinary studies
10.1038/S43247-025-02811-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Decomposition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation using linear inverse models sheds light on its dominant modes and future response
Sheng Wu•Emanuele Di Lorenzo•Yingying Zhao•Matthew Newman•Zhengyu Liu等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/10
•Vol.9 No.1 p.430
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the leading mode of North Pacific climate variability, yet its response to climate change remains uncertain. Here, we use Linear Inverse Model (LIM) diagnostics to decompose PDO into three dynamical constituents: the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) mode, the...
Climate changeOcean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01315-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the multidecadal warming rate of East Asia in the present and future climate
Dajeong Jeong•Changhyun Yoo•Sang-Wook Yeh
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
External forcing and internal variability contribute to multidecadal variation in the warming rate of East Asia. By rescaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multi-model mean to the temperatures observed for the 1890–2020 period, we find that external forcing contributes about −0.2...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00573-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate
Li Zhang•Xuya Ren•Wenju Cai•Xichen Li•Lixin Wu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/4/16
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) to the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO). Whether and how the different types of IOD variability patterns affect ...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-47655-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century
Lopez Hosmay•Lee Sang-Ki•Kim Dongmin•Wittenberg Andrew T.•Yeh Sang-Wook
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/4/8
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-13
Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21st Century (21 C), ...
AttributionPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-29519-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population
Ralph Trancoso•Jozef Syktus•Richard P. Allan•Jacky Croke•Ove Hoegh-Guldberg等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/1/11
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
Future projections of precipitation are uncertain, hampering effective climate adaptation strategies globally. Our understanding of changes across multiple climate model simulations under a warmer climate is limited by this lack of coherence across models. Here, we address this challenge introducing...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-44513-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Weakening of the AMOC and strengthening of Labrador Sea deep convection in response to external freshwater forcing
Xinyue Wei•Rong Zhang
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/11/28
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key player in climate. Here, we employ an ensemble of water hosing experiments to examine mechanisms of AMOC weakening and its subsequent impact on the Labrador Sea open-ocean deep convection. The subpolar AMOC decline in response to the ex...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-54756-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene
Cook Benjamin I.•Smerdon Jason E.•Cook Edward R.•Williams A. Park•Anchukaitis Kevin J.等 34 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/4
•Vol.3 No.11 p.741-757
Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal...
Climate changeHydrologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43017-022-00329-1
ISSN:2662-138X
Past and future ocean warming
Cheng Lijing•von Schuckmann Karina•Abraham John P.•Trenberth Kevin E.•Mann Michael E.等 15 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/18
•Vol.3 No.11 p.776-794
Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 Z...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43017-022-00345-1
ISSN:2662-138X
Ocean warming weakens the sea–land breeze in coastal megacities
Yunting Xiao•Yaxin Liu•Yu Nie•Yongjie Fang•Hao Liu等 10 人
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/4/17
•00 p.1-7
The sea–land breeze (SLB), driven by thermal contrasts between sea and land, forms a key circulation system in coastal cities which mitigates urban heat islands, improves air quality and supports urban liveability. Yet its response to rising sea-surface temperatures (SST) under global warming remain...
Climate and Earth system modellingSustainability
10.1038/S41558-026-02618-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Future climate-driven escalation of Southeastern Siberia wildfires revealed by deep learning
Ke Gui•Xutao Zhang•Huizheng Che•Lei Li•Yu Zheng等 14 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/29
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The Southeastern Siberia (SES) region has recently experienced increasingly extensive wildfires in spring, which have threatened its large carbon sequestration capacity from vast forests and peatlands. However, the underlying mechanisms propelling the increased fires and their potential responses to...
Atmospheric chemistryEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00815-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Asymmetric impacts of forest gain and loss on tropical land surface temperature
Yuxiang Zhang•Xuhui Wang•Xu Lian•Sien Li•Yue Li等 7 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/5/1
•00 p.1-7
Forest gain in the tropics can cool the land surface by altering the energy budget through biophysical processes. Many countries have adopted forestation as part of their strategies for tackling climate warming. However, the biophysical effects of forest gain have generally been estimated based on t...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationEcology
10.1038/S41561-024-01423-3
ISSN:1752-0894
Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate
Zheng-Hang Fu•Dazhi Xi•Shang-Ping Xie•Wen Zhou•Ning Lin等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/7/31
•00 p.1-9
Multiple tropical cyclones can be present concurrently within one ocean basin, and these clusters can induce compound hazards within a short time window. While the western North Pacific has historically been home to most tropical cyclone clusters, how climate change might affect this is unclear. Her...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02397-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Canopy structure regulates autumn phenology by mediating the microclimate in temperate forests
Xiaoyong Wu•Chunyue Niu•Xiaoqiang Liu•Tianyu Hu•Yuhao Feng等 15 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/10/14
•00 p.1-7
Autumn phenology plays a critical role in shaping the carbon sequestration capacity of temperate forests. Notable local-scale variations in autumn phenology have drawn increasing attention recently, potentially introducing substantial uncertainty when predicting temperate forest productivity. Yet th...
Climate changeForest ecology
10.1038/S41558-024-02164-2
ISSN:1758-678X
Human influence can explain the widespread exceptional warmth in 2023
Seung-Ki Min
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/4/22
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-4
Attribution of the record-shattering global annual heat in 2023 to human and/or natural factors is fundamentally required for reliable predictions of upcoming global warming and its impacts. An observation-model comparison of global hot areas supports a key role for human-induced climate change, wit...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01391-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Building façade photovoltaics enhance global climate resilience
Hou Jiang•Ling Yao•Jun Qin•Wenli Zhao•Tang Liu等 13 人
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/3/27
•00 p.1-9
Climate change is intensifying global energy demands and amplifying exposure to extreme heat. Building façade-integrated photovoltaics (FIPV) present a largely untapped opportunity to supply renewable electricity while enhancing urban climate resilience. Here we show that deployable FIPV systems wor...
Climate changeEnergy modelling
10.1038/S41558-026-02606-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Global increase in future compound heat stress-heavy precipitation hazards and associated socio-ecosystem risks
Zhiling Zhou•Liping Zhang•Qin Zhang•Chen Hu•Gangsheng Wang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/31
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
Compound extremes of lethal heat stress-heavy precipitation events (CHPEs) seriously threaten social and ecological sustainability, while their evolution and effects at the global scale under climate warming remain unclear. Here we develop the global picture of projected changes in CHPEs under vario...
Climate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00579-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale
Alexander T. Michalek•Gabriele Villarini•Admin Husic
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/25
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
Structural connectivity describes how landscapes facilitate the transfer of matter and plays a critical role in the flux of water, solutes, and sediment across the Earth’s surface. The strength of a landscape’s connectivity is a function of climatic and tectonic processes, but the importance of thes...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-42384-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Irrigation benefits outweigh costs in more US croplands by mid-century
Trevor Partridge•Jonathan Winter•Anthony Kendall•Bruno Basso•Lisi Pei等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/8/14
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-15
Irrigation can increase crop yields and could be a key climate adaptation strategy. However, future water availability is uncertain. Here we explore the economic costs and benefits of existing and expanded irrigation of maize and soybean throughout the United States. We examine both middle and end o...
AgroecologyClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-023-00889-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium
Feng Chen•Wenmin Man•Shijie Wang•Jan Esper•David Meko等 19 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/11/13
•00 p.1-8
The great river systems originating from the Tibetan Plateau are pivotal for the wellbeing of more than half the global population. Our understanding of historical ranges and future changes in water availability for much of Southeast Asia is, however, limited by short observational records and compl...
Climate changeHydrologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41561-023-01320-1
ISSN:1752-0894
Future increases in Eurasian mid-latitude winter temperature variability shaped by a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Sangwoo Lee•Hyo-Seok Park•Maeng-Ki Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Hyokyeong Hwang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/5
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Climate models project reduced temperature variability in Northern high latitudes due to global warming, but impacts on mid-latitude variability remain uncertain. Here, using multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we find that daily winter temperature variability inc...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-025-02249-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Future temperature-related hospitalizations from cardiovascular diseases among rural residents in southeastern China considering population aging
Zhi-Ying Zhan•Jun Yang•Xue Zhong•Xiao-Xu Xie•De-Li Liu等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/5
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Future climate changes are projected to adversely affect mortality risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in urbanized regions. However, future temperature-related excess CVD hospitalizations in rural residents with poorer socioeconomic status is not well understood. Moreover, influence of aging and d...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-023-00439-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Aerosol-induced surface cooling elevates relative humidity on the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Jina Park•S. -Y. Simon Wang•Hyungjun Kim•Jee-Hoon Jeong•Nobuyuki Utsumi等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The Indo-Gangetic Plain has experienced a substantial rise in relative humidity in recent decades, with implications for human health and well-being. Here we use atmospheric reanalysis and large-ensemble climate model simulations to assess changes since the 1960s. Relative humidity increased by 10.3...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental health
10.1038/S43247-025-02513-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
Dangendorf Sönke•Hendricks Noah•Sun Qiang•Klinck John•Ezer Tal等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/4/10
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast...
AttributionPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-37649-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming
Zixiang Yan•Bo Wu•Tim Li•Matthew Collins•Tianjun Zhou等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/24
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
El Niño induced equatorial precipitation centers shift to different longitudinal positions during Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, resulting in distinct global climate responses. However, it remains unexplored how EP and CP El Niño forced precipitation changes may differ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-00933-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Atlantic multidecadal variability controls Arctic-ENSO connection
Shangfeng Chen•Wen Chen•Renguang Wu•Bin Yu•Hans-F. Graf等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/10
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The springtime Arctic Oscillation (AO), a dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, influences the subsequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by triggering westerly wind bursts over the equatorial western Pacific. It thereby provides a source of predi...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric science
10.1038/S41612-025-00936-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Spatiotemporal co-optimization of agricultural management practices towards climate-smart crop production
Liujun Xiao•Guocheng Wang•Enli Wang•Shengli Liu•Jinfeng Chang等 12 人
Nature Food
2024
•2024/1/2
•00 p.1-13
Co-optimization of multiple management practices may facilitate climate-smart agriculture, but is challenged by complex climate–crop–soil management interconnections across space and over time. Here we develop a hybrid approach combining agricultural system modelling, machine learning and life cycle...
AgricultureClimate-change ecologyGeography
10.1038/S43016-023-00891-X
ISSN:2662-1355
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
Smith D. M.•Eade R.•Andrews M. B.•Ayres H.•Clark A.等 32 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/2/7
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-15
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar A...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41467-022-28283-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Contrasting influences of biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of historical land use on global economic inequality
Liu Shu•Wang Yong•Zhang Guang J.•Wei Linyi•Wang Bin等 6 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/5/5
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-14
Climate change has significant implications for macro-economic growth. The impacts of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on economies via altered annual mean temperature (AMT) have been studied. However, the economic impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is still unknown because ...
Climate-change impactsEnvironmental economics
10.1038/S41467-022-30145-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Large biases in the frequency of water limitation across Earth system models
Francesco Giardina•Ryan S. Padrón•Benjamin D. Stocker•Dominik L. Schumacher•Sonia I. Seneviratne
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/6/16
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Water availability limits evapotranspiration on land, shaping the energy balance, land carbon uptake, and climate extremes. Despite its importance, Earth system models struggle to capture where and how often water-limited conditions occur. Here we investigate the representation of water limitation a...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02426-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change
Chao Li•Jieyu Liu•Fujun Du•Francis W. Zwiers•Guolin Feng
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/20
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty of these projections at global to sub-continental scales, but adaptation gener...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrologyNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-56235-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Sustainable development substantially reduces the risk of future drought impacts
Hossein Tabari•Patrick Willems
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/25
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-10
Drought is a major natural hazard that can cause cascading impacts on socioeconomic sectors, and its risk is expected to increase under future climate change and socioeconomic developments. However, a comprehensive cross-disciplinary drought risk outlook is currently lacking to support integrative d...
Climate-change impactsNatural hazardsSustainabilityWater resources
10.1038/S43247-023-00840-3
ISSN:2662-4435
ENSO-driven abrupt phase shift in North Atlantic oscillation in early January
Xin Geng•Jiuwei Zhao•Jong-Seong Kug
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections exhibit a strong dependency on seasonally and intraseasonally varying mean states, leading to impactful short-term variations in regional climate. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-ENSO relation is a typical example, in that its phase relationsh...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00414-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: new insights into data–model integration
Yong Sun•Haibin Wu•Lin Ding•Lixin Chen•Christian Stepanek等 31 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decodi...
HydrologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41612-024-00668-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Ocean heat uptake and interbasin redistribution driven by anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
Shouwei Li•Wei Liu•Robert J. Allen•Jia-Rui Shi•Laifang Li
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/6/29
•00 p.1-9
Anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases have played important roles in modulating the storage and distribution of heat in oceans since the industrial age. Here we isolate and quantify the effects of both using coupled climate model simulations. We show that, relative to the pre-industrial ocean,...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41561-023-01219-X
ISSN:1752-0894
Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet
Nils Bochow•Anna Poltronieri•Alexander Robinson•Marisa Montoya•Martin Rypdal等 6 人
Nature
2023
•2023/10/18
•Vol.622 No.7983 p.528-536
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS,...
Climate-change impactsCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06503-9
ISSN:0028-0836
Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks
Xinchang ‘Cathy’ Li•Lei Zhao•Yue Qin•Keith Oleson•Yiwen Zhang
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/9/12
•Vol.14 No.10 p.1056-1063
Climate-driven impacts on future urban heating and cooling (H&C) energy demand are critical to sustainable energy planning. Existing global H&C projections are predominantly made without accounting for future two-way biophysical feedbacks between urban climate and H&C use. Here, using a ...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41558-024-02108-W
ISSN:1758-678X
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown modulates wind-driven circulations in a warmer climate
Mohima Sultana Mimi•Wei Liu
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/21
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Wind-driven and thermohaline circulations, two major components of global large-scale ocean circulations, are intrinsically related. As part of the thermohaline circulation, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has been observed and is expected to decline over the twenty-first century, po...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01907-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening
Mingna Wu•Chao Li•Matthew Collins•Hongmei Li•Xiaolong Chen等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/10/24
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-11
The Walker circulation is projected to slow down in response to greenhouse gas warming. However, detecting the impact of human activities on changes in the Walker circulation is challenging due to the significant influence of internal variability. Here, based on ensembles of multiple climate models ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-53509-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Grazing reverses climate-induced soil carbon gains on the Tibetan Plateau
Shuai Ren•Tao Wang•Xinhui Ji•Liang Wei•Jianjun Wei等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/7/30
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Soil carbon stocks on the Tibetan Plateau are widely considered to be increasingly threatened by drastic climate warming and intensified livestock grazing. But it remains elusive due to unconstrained model projections. Here we integrate large-scale soil campaigns, soil incubation with paired grazing...
Carbon cycleGrassland ecology
10.1038/S41467-025-62332-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Pattern asymmetry in extreme Indian Ocean dipoles shapes marine heat-height compound extremes around coastal Indonesia
Mingmei Xie•Jia-Zhen Wang•Lei Zhang•Weiqing Han•Chunzai Wang等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events (EXIODs) exert pronounced climate impacts both regionally and globally, which are closely associated with their sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Here we find an evident asymmetry in SSTA patterns between the positive (EXpIOD) and negative (EXnIOD) phases ...
Atmospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02184-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
Baosheng Li•Lei Zhou•Jianhuang Qin•Tianjun Zhou•Dake Chen等 7 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/11/22
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-7
The edge of a monsoon region is usually highly sensitive to climate change. Pakistan, which is located on the northern edge of the Indian monsoon, is highly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and has witnessed several debilitating floods exacerbated by global warming in recent years. However, the mechanis...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41467-023-43463-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Mitigation-driven global heat imbalance in the late 21st century
Shouwei Li•Liping Zhang•Thomas L. Delworth•William F. Cooke•Se-Yong Song等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/2
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
While the changes in ocean heat uptake in a warming climate have been well explored, the changes in response to climate mitigation efforts remain unclear. Using coupled climate model simulations, here we find that in response to a hypothesized reduction of greenhouse gases in the late 21st century, ...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01849-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate change shifts the North Pacific storm track polewards
Rei Chemke•Janni Yuval
Nature
2026
•2026/1/7
•Vol.649 No.8097 p.626-630
Across the North Pacific Ocean, the mid-latitude storm track accounts for most of the heat and moisture transport into the Arctic and western North America, considerably influencing regional precipitation and temperature patterns1,2. By the end of this century, the winter North Pacific storm track i...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41586-025-09895-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future
Wahl Eugene R.•Zorita Eduardo•Diaz Henry F.•Hoell Andrew
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/9/19
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-14
Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current p...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-022-00532-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability
Wenhao Dong•Yi Ming•Yi Deng•Zhaoyi Shen
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/23
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of ...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-024-48743-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
Yeon-Hee Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Nathan P. Gillett•Dirk Notz•Elizaveta Malinina
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/6
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation ...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-38511-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100
Pengjun Zhao•Yunlin Li•Yu Zhang
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/7/30
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
In the context of global warming, the Arctic sea ice is rapidly receding, and the possibility of navigating the Arctic shipping route continues to increase. Here we combine climate and ship navigability data and use low and medium emission scenarios to analyze sea ice conditions and navigability fro...
GeographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01557-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system
Liu Teng•Chen Dean•Yang Lan•Meng Jun•Wang Zanchenling等 13 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/1/5
•Vol.13 No.1 p.67-74
Tipping elements are components of the Earth system that may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. It is not well understood to what degree tipping of one system can influence other regions or tipping elements. Here, we propose a climate network approach t...
Climate changeStatistics
10.1038/S41558-022-01558-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Monitoring, modeling, and forecasting long-term changes in coastal seawater quality due to climate change
Xianghong Guan•Hua Huang•Xiong Ke•Xiaoqian Cheng•Heng Zhang等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/3/17
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
As climate change affects the physicochemical properties of coastal water, the resulting element re-exposure may override the emission reductions achieved by human pollution control efforts. Here, we conduct an analysis the water quality-climate effect over eight consecutive years from 2015 to 2022 ...
Element cyclesMarine chemistry
10.1038/S41467-025-57913-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
Alex Crawford•Julienne Stroeve•Abigail Smith•Alexandra Jahn
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/6/3
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-10
The shrinking of Arctic-wide September sea ice extent is often cited as an indicator of modern climate change; however, the timing of seasonal sea ice retreat/advance and the length of the open-water period are often more relevant to stakeholders working at regional and local scales. Here we highlig...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-021-00183-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Local surface cooling from afforestation amplified by lower aerosol pollution
Jun Ge•Xin Huang•Beilei Zan•Bo Qiu•Yipeng Cao等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/8/24
•00 p.1-8
Afforestation can play a key role in local climate mitigation by influencing local temperature through changes in land surface properties. Afforestation impacts depend strongly on the background climate, with contrasting effects observed across geographical locations, seasons and levels of greenhous...
Atmospheric chemistryClimate changeClimate-change mitigationEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41561-023-01251-X
ISSN:1752-0894
Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold
Alex J. Cannon
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/2/10
•Vol.15 No.3 p.266-269
June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies a failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below this threshold. Here we show that in climate model simula...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02247-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Evaluation of atmospheric moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau from 33 CMIP6 models
Yigang Liu•Jing Gao•Yilong Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Atmospheric moisture transport is pivotal in regulating water resources over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). With the growing concerns about climate change, understanding the evolution of atmospheric moisture transport over the TP has become increasingly critical. however, the spatiotemporal distinctions ...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00785-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Impact attribution of the March 2022 Antarctic heatwave reveals amplification by cloud feedbacks and increased future meltwater
Sergi González-Herrero•Pranab Deb•Sihan Li•Daniel Argüeso•Rainette Engbers等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/16
0Antarctic heatwaves driven by atmospheric rivers are emerging as high-impact extremes, yet the role of climate change in amplifying such events remains uncertain. Here we investigate the climate change contribution to the March 2022 East Antarctic heatwave using pseudo-global warming experiments wit...
AttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-026-03485-0
ISSN:2662-4435
21st-century stagnation in unvegetated sand-sea activity
Gunn Andrew•East Amy•Jerolmack Douglas J.
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/6/27
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-7
Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact ...
GeomorphologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-31123-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
Carlos Calvo-Sancho•Javier Díaz-Fernández•Juan Jesús González-Alemán•Amar Halifa-Marín•Mario Marcello Miglietta等 11 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/17
•Vol.17 No.1 p.14920
Global warming alters the hydrological cycle, increasing heavy rainfall events worldwide. In October 2024, Valencia (Spain) experienced rainfall accumulations in a few hours surpassing annual averages (771.8 mm in 16 h in the official weather station at Turís) and breaking the record for one hour ra...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41467-026-68929-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets
Tao Wang•Yutong Zhao•Chaoyi Xu•Philippe Ciais•Dan Liu等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/1/11
•Vol.11 No.3 p.219-225
Rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau provide freshwater to downstream populations, yet runoff projections from warming are unclear due to precipitation uncertainties. Here, we use a historical atmospheric circulation–precipitation relationship to constrain future modelled wet-season precipitati...
Environmental sciencesHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-020-00974-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Observed different impacts of potential tree restoration on local surface and air temperature
Yitao Li•Zhao-Liang Li•Hua Wu•Xiangyang Liu•Xu Lian等 16 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/3/8
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Tree restoration can cool or warm the local climate through biophysical processes. However, the magnitude of these effects remains unconstrained at large scales, as most previous observational studies rely on land surface temperature (Ts) rather than the more policy-relevant air temperature (Ta). Us...
Climate-change mitigationEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-025-57606-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Drought frequency, intensity, and exposure have increased due to historical land use and land cover changes
Tao Tang•Jun Ge•Haiyun Shi•Lin Wang•Junji Cao等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/5/22
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Drought, a marked deficiency of surface water, has a wide adverse impact on the environment, agriculture, and the socio-economy. The global impact of land use changes on drought features and associated exposures to droughts, however, remains largely unknown. In this study, the changes of drought fea...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02392-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Substantial increase in wildfire danger conditions under anthropogenic climate change in Southwest France
Marine Lanet•Laurent Li•Hervé Le Treut
Npj Natural Hazards
2025
•2025/7/23
•Vol.2 No.1 p.700
Wildfires are an increasing concern under climate change, which may raise the frequency and intensity of fire-prone conditions. Here we assess summer wildfire danger evolution in Southwestern France under three climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), usin...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsNatural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S44304-025-00124-0
ISSN:2948-2100
Anthropogenic and atmospheric variability intensifies flash drought episodes in South Asia
Irfan Ullah•Sourav Mukherjee•Sidra Syed•Ashok Kumar Mishra•Brian Odhiambo Ayugi等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of droughts that affect agriculture, water, and ecosystems and are commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics and underlying mechanisms in South Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariat...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-024-01390-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Emergent constraint on oxygenation of the upper South Eastern Pacific oxygen minimum zone in the twenty-first century
Ivan Almendra•Boris Dewitte•Véronique Garçon•Praxedes Muñoz•Carolina Parada等 12 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/28
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
As a consequence of on-going global warming, the ocean is losing oxygen, which has implications not only in terms of marine resources management and food supply but also in terms of the potentially important feedback on the global carbon cycle and climate. Of particular scrutiny are the extended zon...
Element cyclesOcean sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01427-2
ISSN:2662-4435
South Pacific Oscillation contributes to multi-year ENSOs
Xumin Li•Jin-Yi Yu•Ruiqiang Ding•Xiaofeng Xu•Kai Ji等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Multi-year El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where the warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) extends beyond a single year, have become increasingly prominent in recent decades. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) plays a cruci...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01130-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends
Joonsuk M. Kang•Tiffany A. Shaw•Sarah M. Kang•Isla R. Simpson•Yue Yu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Southern Hemisphere (SH) storminess has increased in the satellite era and recent work suggests comprehensive climate models significantly underestimate the trend. Here, we revisit this reanalysis-model trend discrepancy to better understand the mechanisms underlie it. A comprehensive like-for-like ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00801-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation
Ding Ruiqiang•Tseng Yu‐Heng•Di Lorenzo Emanuele•Shi Liang•Li Jianping等 12 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/7/5
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-31516-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming
Woollings Tim•Drouard Marie•O’Reilly Christopher H.•Sexton David M. H.•McSweeney Carol
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/4/19
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are emerging. The significance of these trends is often low and va...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00792-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Machine learning helps to strongly reduce future warming uncertainty
Chao Li•Junhao Wu•Zihang Wang•Francis W. Zwiers•Xuebin Zhang等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/3
•Vol.17 No.1 p.33660
The observed warming of global mean surface temperature has been used to reduce uncertainty in future climate change and impact projections, but the information embedded in the spatial pattern of warming remains largely untapped. Here, we use machine learning to uncover spatially resolved emergent c...
Climate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-70205-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation
Zhang Wenmin•Schurgers Guy•Peñuelas Josep•Fensholt Rasmus•Yang Hui等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/2/21
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
The atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) variability is largely controlled by tropical temperature fluctuations. The sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature $$\left({{{{\rm{\gamma }}}}}_{{{{\rm{CGR}}}}}^{{{{\rm{T}}}}}\right)$$ has strongly increased since 1960, but here we show that this trend has c...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-023-36727-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
Fewster Richard E.•Morris Paul J.•Ivanovic Ruza F.•Swindles Graeme T.•Peregon Anna M.等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/3/14
•00 p.1-7
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model...
BiogeographyClimate-change impactsCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01296-7
ISSN:1758-678X
Key to ENSO phase-locking simulation: effects of sea surface temperature diurnal amplitude
Xiaodan Yang•Ying Bao•Zhenya Song•Qi Shu•Yajuan Song等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
The tendency of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to peak during boreal winter is known as ENSO phase-locking, whose accurate simulation is essential for ENSO prediction. However, the simulated peaks of ENSO events usually occur outside boreal winter in state-of-the-art climate models. Base...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00483-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Future changes in the wintertime ENSO-NAO teleconnection under greenhouse warming
Xin Geng•Jong-Seong Kug•Yu Kosaka
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/28
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic exhibits strong subseasonal variations, as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response systematically reverses its phase from early to late winter. Based on two sets of atmospheric model simulations in CMIP6 forced by historic...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00627-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
Thompson Vikki•Mitchell Dann•Hegerl Gabriele C.•Collins Matthew•Leach Nicholas J.等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/4/25
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation to extreme weather events often occurs in response to an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using extreme value statistics, here we show where ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsNatural hazardsStatistics
10.1038/S41467-023-37554-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability triggered by Southern Annular Mode and deep convection
Yushi Morioka•Syukuro Manabe•Liping Zhang•Thomas L. Delworth•William Cooke等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/8
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Antarctic sea ice exerts great influence on Earth’s climate by controlling the exchange of heat, momentum, freshwater, and gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Antarctic sea ice extent has undergone a multidecadal slight increase followed by a substantial decline since 2016. Here we utilize a 300...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01783-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Sang-Ki Lee•Kyung-Ja Ha•Sang-Wook Yeh等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, by con...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00713-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Boosting effect of strong western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the decay of El Niño events
Jia Wu•Hanjie Fan•Shuheng Lin•Wenxiu Zhong•Shan He等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/3
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode is believed to favor the decay of El Niño via modulating the zonal wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, while the contribution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to the following year’s El Niño remains highly controversial. In this study, we use the ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00554-5
ISSN:2397-3722
An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability
Xu Tongtong•Newman Matthew•Capotondi Antonietta•Stevenson Samantha•Di Lorenzo Emanuele等 6 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/12/1
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-12
Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyon...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-34934-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts
Zhao Meng•A Geruo•Liu Yanlan•Konings Alexandra G.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/10/27
•Vol.12 No.11 p.1024-1030
Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce the moisture supply necessary for ET, limiting predictions of even the sign of ET anomalies. Drought-driven increases in ET ( $${\...
Ecological modellingEcosystem ecologyHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-022-01505-3
ISSN:1758-678X
Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks
Chao Wu•Grayson Badgley•Michael L. Goulden•James T. Randerson•Anna T. Trugman等 13 人
Nature
2026
•2026/5/20
•00 p.1-7
Although the reduction of fossil fuel emissions remains of the utmost importance to mitigate climate change, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks in forests have been widely promoted as nature-based climate solutions1–4. However, disturbances that could result in losses of forest carbon stocks are...
Climate-change ecologyForest ecology
10.1038/S41586-026-10571-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase
Heede Ulla K.•Fedorov Alexey V.
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/7/29
•00 p.1-8
Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here we use a range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east–west temperature gradient and corresponding ...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-021-01101-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Impact of land use changes and global warming on extreme precipitation patterns in the Maritime Continent
Jie Hsu•Chao-An Chen•Chia-Wei Lan•Chun-Lien Chiang•Chun-Hung Li等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
Land use changes (LUC) and global warming (GW) significantly impact the Maritime Continent’s (MC) hydro-climate, but their effects on extreme precipitation events are underexplored. This study investigates the impacts of LUC and GW on wet and dry extremes in the MC using Community Earth System Model...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00883-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall
Yujia You•Mingfang Ting•Michela Biasutti
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/4/13
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
A sequence of torrential rainstorms pounded Pakistan in the summer of 2022, shattering records by massive margins (7 sigma). The severe socioeconomic damages underscore the urgency of identifying its dynamic drivers and relationship with human-induced climate change. Here, we find that the downpours...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00630-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States
Jiale Lou•Youngji Joh•Thomas L. Delworth•Liwei Jia
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) measures the difference between saturation vapor pressure and actual vapor pressure, and its variability is closely related to fire activity in the western United States (US). Here, we assess the forecast skill of monthly VPD variability using a state-of-the-...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01028-6
ISSN:2397-3722
More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
Shin Na-Yeon•Kug Jong-Seong•Stuecker Malte F.•Jin Fei-Fei•Timmermann Axel等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/12/16
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00324-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Universal temperature sensitivity of denitrification nitrogen losses in forest soils
Haoming Yu•Yihang Duan•Jan Mulder•Peter Dörsch•Weixing Zhu等 17 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/6/22
•00 p.1-9
Soil nitrous oxide (N2O) and dinitrogen (N2) emissions from denitrification are crucial to the nitrogen (N) cycle. However, the temperature sensitivities (Q10) of gaseous N losses in forest soils are poorly understood, with implications for prediction of N cycle responses to warming. Here, we quanti...
BiogeochemistryClimate-change ecology
10.1038/S41558-023-01708-2
ISSN:1758-678X
Thermodynamically enhanced precipitation extremes due to counterbalancing influences of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols
Zeqin Huang•Xuezhi Tan•Thian Yew Gan•Bingjun Liu•Xiaohong Chen
Nature Water
2023
•2023/7/3
•00 p.1-12
Responses of precipitation extremes to forcings by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol (AER) emissions could significantly impact society and ecosystems. Although human influences on changes in precipitation extremes are detectable, how precipitation extremes have responded to human-in...
AttributionCivil engineering
10.1038/S44221-023-00107-3
ISSN:2731-6084
Amplifying subtropical hydrological transition over China in early summer tied to weakened mid-latitude synoptic disturbances
Li Yana•Deng Yi•Cheung Ho-Nam•Zhou Wen•Yang Song等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/5/17
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The rainy season over southern China (SC) begins with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon around mid-May. We demonstrate here that the SC precipitation exhibits a notable drying (wetting) trend prior to (after) the monsoon onset, leading to a more abrupt thus amplified hydrological transition o...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S41612-022-00259-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Distinct Hadley circulation attributable to rapid and slow El Niño decay and its regional impacts
Xuanliang Ji•Juan Feng•Jianping Li•Yazhou Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/10/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
El Niño significantly impacts the global Hadley circulation (HC), however, the modulation of different decay rates of El Niño on the HC is overlooked. Our research reveals that rapid decay (RD) events cause the global HC to exhibit an equatorially asymmetric configuration, in contrast to the quasi-s...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01221-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic
Zou Yufei•Rasch Philip J.•Wang Hailong•Xie Zuowei•Zhang Rudong
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/10/26
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-12
The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic clim...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeCryospheric scienceNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-021-26232-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Underestimation of particulate dry nitrogen deposition in China
Qianru Zhang•Yuhang Wang•Maodian Liu•Young-Hee Ryu•Mingxu Liu等 10 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/1/2
•Vol.19 No.2 p.137-144
Nitrogen is indispensable for global food production and ecosystem carbon sequestration, but excess nitrogen leads to water eutrophication, soil acidification and air pollution. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition is a key yet uncertain component of the biogeochemical cycle. Currently, global networks m...
Atmospheric chemistryElement cyclesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41561-025-01873-3
ISSN:1752-0894
Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
Chenghao Wang•Jiyun Song•Dachuan Shi•Janet L. Reyna•Henry Horsey等 10 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/18
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-16
Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in ...
Carbon and energyClimate-change impactsEnergy and societyEnergy modelling
10.1038/S41467-023-41458-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific
Ying Jun•Collins Matthew•Cai Wenju•Timmermann Axel•Huang Ping等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/3/7
•00 p.1-9
Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence of climate change signals from the natural variability is critical for mitigation strategies and adaptation pla...
Climate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-022-01301-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming
Schiro Kathleen A.•Su Hui•Ahmed Fiaz•Dai Ni•Singer Clare E.等 10 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/19
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-12
Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its eff...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-022-34787-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Data-driven investigation on the boreal summer MJO predictability
Na-Yeon Shin•Daehyun Kang•Daehyun Kim•June-Yi Lee•Jong-Seong Kug
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/16
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The summer MJO exhibits different characteristics from its winter counterpart, particularly distinguished by propagation in both eastward and northward directions, which is relatively less understood. Here, we explore the primary sources of the summer MJO predictability using Machine Learning (ML) b...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00799-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests
Li Yue•Brando Paulo M.•Morton Douglas C.•Lawrence David M.•Yang Hui等 6 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/4/12
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-13
Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influenc...
Carbon cycleClimate-change impactsForestry
10.1038/S41467-022-29601-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change
Lei Yao•Guoyong Leng•Linfei Yu•Hongyi Li•Qiuhong Tang等 15 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Surface soil moisture is projected to decrease under global warming. Such projections are mostly based on climate models, which show large uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) partly due to inadequate observational constraint. Here we identify strong physically-based emergent relationships between...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02024-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
Jens Terhaar•Linus Vogt•Nicholas P. Foukal
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/15
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-17
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for global ocean carbon and heat uptake, and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Despite its importance, quantifying the AMOC’s past changes and assessing its vulnerability to climate change remains highly uncertain. Under...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-55297-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves
Hari Vittal•Ghosh Subimal•Zhang Wei•Kumar Rohini
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/9/12
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Increased occurrence of heatwaves across different parts of the world is one of the characteristic signatures of anthropogenic warming. With a 1.3 billion population, India is one of the hot spots that experience deadly heatwaves during May-June – yet the large-scale physical mechanism and teleconne...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-022-32942-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Two regimes of inter-basin interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on interannual timescales
Park Jae-Heung•Yeh Sang-Wook•Kug Jong-Seong•Yang Young-Min•Jo Hyun-Su等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/2/22
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Understanding the inter-basin interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is of great concern due to their substantial global climatic implications. By analyzing observational reanalysis datasets (1948–2020), we found that there are two regimes in Atlantic–Pacific inter-basin interactions: ...
Atmospheric dynamicsOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00332-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate sensitivity controls global precipitation hysteresis in a changing CO2 pathway
Se-Yong Song•Sang-Wook Yeh•Richard P. Allan•Shang-Ping Xie•Soon-Il An等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The responses of the Earth’s climate system to positive and negative CO2 emissions are not identical in magnitude, resulting in hysteresis. In particular, the degree of global precipitation hysteresis varies markedly among Earth system models. Based on analysis of Earth’s energy budget, here we show...
Climate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41612-023-00484-2
ISSN:2397-3722
High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature
Peter Good•Robin Chadwick•Christopher E. Holloway•John Kennedy•Jason A. Lowe等 7 人
Nature
2020
•2020/10/26
•Vol.589 No.7842 p.408-414
Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate1–5. Local sea surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is difficult to disentangle from remote effects of conditions e...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41586-020-2887-3
ISSN:0028-0836
Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change
Xihui Gu•Zaiming Jiang•Yansong Guan•Ming Luo•Jianfeng Li等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/10
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated atmospheric heatwaves globally, yet the transboundary migration of heatwaves between land and ocean, along with the anthropogenic influence on this process, remain unclear. Here, we employ a Lagrangian tracking approach to identify and track spatiotemporally con...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-025-58586-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk
Yida Sun•Shupeng Zhu•Daoping Wang•Jianping Duan•Hui Lu等 14 人
Nature
2024
•2024/3/13
•00 p.1-8
Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybr...
EconomicsInterdisciplinary studies
10.1038/S41586-024-07147-Z
ISSN:0028-0836
Present and future of the South Asian summer monsoon’s rainy season over Northeast India
Prolay Saha•Rahul Mahanta•B. N. Goswami
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/10/25
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
An iconic feature of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), a longer than June–September rainy season over Northeast India (NEI), while a much shorter one over northwest India is expected to be altered by climate change but an objective definition of the length of the monsoon rainy season (LRS) ...
Climate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00485-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming
Tao Geng•Fan Jia•Wenju Cai•Lixin Wu•Bolan Gan等 8 人
Nature
2023
•2023/7/26
•Vol.619 No.7971 p.774-781
Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter1–3, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer4–7. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equa...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06236-9
ISSN:0028-0836
Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models
Zhili Wang•Lei Lin•Yangyang Xu•Huizheng Che•Xiaoye Zhang等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2021
•2021/1/14
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends o...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-020-00159-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate
Zhang Shulei•Zhou Liming•Zhang Lu•Yang Yuting•Wei Zhongwang等 12 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/11/28
•Vol.12 No.12 p.1160-1167
An intensified hydrological cycle with global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, whether and to what extent the enhanced extreme precipitation translates into changes in river floods remains controversial. Here we demonstrate that pr...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S41558-022-01539-7
ISSN:1758-678X
Asymmetric response of day-to-day temperature variability to CO₂ forcing over Northern Hemisphere mid–high latitudes
Ruyu Gan•Kaiming Hu•Qi Liu•Gang Huang•Suqin Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/9
0Day-to-day temperature variability (DTDT) quantifies short-term temperature fluctuations and indicates weather-scale variability. Using idealized carbon dioxide removal (CDR) experiments, we assess the response asymmetry of DTDT over Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes under symmetric CO₂ ramp...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01372-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Interdecadal modulation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña strength in the Southeast Indian Ocean by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Jiaqing Xue•Wenjun Zhang•Yutong Zhang•Jing-Jia Luo•Hualong Zhu等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/2/25
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
The Southeast Indian Ocean is a global hotspot for marine heatwaves. In that region, marine heatwaves/cold-spells are known as Ningaloo Niño/Niña events, and have substantial impacts on regional climate anomalies and unique marine ecosystems. However, the strength of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events is non...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-57160-7
ISSN:2041-1723
North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
D. M. Smith•A. A. Scaife•R. Eade•P. Athanasiadis•A. Bellucci等 39 人
Nature
2020
•2020/7/29
•Vol.583 No.7818 p.796-800
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1–3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This lead...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-020-2525-0
ISSN:0028-0836
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires
Binhe Luo•Dehai Luo•Aiguo Dai•Cunde Xiao•Ian Simmonds等 17 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/26
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-17
In recent decades boreal wildfires have occurred frequently over eastern Siberia, leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants. However, it is unclear what factors have contributed to recent increases in these wildfires. Here, using the data we show that background eastern Siberia...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionEnvironmental health
10.1038/S41467-024-49677-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Why the statistical relationship between east asian summer monsoon rainfall and the concurrent ENSO index is weak and nonsignificant
Yu Liang•Lei Fan•Hui-Huang Fu•Chun Li•Qinyu Liu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/4
0The weak, non-significant correlation between East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall and the concurrent ENSO index has hindered the development of ENSO-based forecasts of EASM. We show that this apparent statistical independence does not stem from randomness, but rather from two opposing phase re...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-026-01381-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Regional priorities in implementing forestation and wind energy as climate solutions in facing their trade-offs
Pengyi Zhang•Fen Gou•Zhaorong Zhu•Wei Liang•Han Zhang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/4/10
0Both forestation and wind-energy upscaling are crucial climate solutions, but they may have conflicts as forestation can increase surface roughness and reduce wind speed. Here, based on coupled land-atmosphere simulations with contrasting forest areas, we report a notable trade-off between wind ener...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationEnergy and societyForest ecology
10.1038/S41467-026-71674-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift
Pontes Gabriel M.•Taschetto Andréa S.•Sen Gupta Alex•Santoso Agus•Wainer Ilana等 28 人
Nature Geoscience
2022
•2022/8/11
•00 p.1-9
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant driver of year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacts climate pattern across the globe. However, the response of the ENSO system to past and potential future temperature increases is not fully understood. Here we inv...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimatePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-022-00999-Y
ISSN:1752-0894
The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030
Céline Heuzé•Alexandra Jahn
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/12/3
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected fir...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-54508-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown
Xuanming Su•Hideo Shiogama•Katsumasa Tanaka•Kaoru Tachiiri•Tomohiro Hajima等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/1
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally cons...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-024-01723-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere
Fenying Cai•Caihong Liu•Dieter Gerten•Song Yang•Tuantuan Zhang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/9/13
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach t...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41467-024-52254-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow
Shi Jia-Rui•Talley Lynne D.•Xie Shang-Ping•Peng Qihua•Liu Wei
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/11/29
•00 p.1-8
The Southern Ocean (>30° S) has taken up a large amount of anthropogenic heat north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Poor sampling before the 1990s and decadal variability have heretofore masked the ocean’s dynamic response to this warming. Here we use the ...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-021-01212-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Original vegetation condition and precipitation growth rate bifurcate sediment flux trend on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Jinhao Guo•Yao Yue•Wenxin Huai•Xia Yan•Alistair G. L. Borthwick等 11 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Riverine sediment flux on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau follows separate trends in different headwater basins because of complicated pathways under global warming. Here we successfully reconstructed historical sediment fluxes from seven pathways at 25 hydrological stations during 1982 ~ 2022 using a con...
Climate-change impactsHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02075-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the U.S. extreme cold weather
Yin Jianjun•Zhao Ming
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/10/13
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-10
Due to its large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation influences both weather and climate at the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a state-of-the-art global weather/climate modeling system with high resolution (GFDL CM4C192) to quantify this influence...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-021-00290-9
ISSN:2662-4435
A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes
Mohammed Ombadi•Mark D. Risser•Alan M. Rhoades•Charuleka Varadharajan
Nature
2023
•2023/6/28
•00 p.1-6
The intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in a warmer climate1–5, posing a great challenge to water sustainability in natural and built environments. Of particular importance are rainfall (liquid precipitation) extremes owing to their instantaneous triggering of runoff a...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-023-06092-7
ISSN:0028-0836
Future changes in coastal upwelling and biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems
Tianshi Du•Shengpeng Wang•Zhao Jing•Lixin Wu•Chao Zhang等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/24
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Upwelling along oceanic eastern boundaries has attracted significant attention due to its profound effects on ocean productivity and associated biological and socioeconomic implications. However, uncertainty persists regarding the evolution of coastal upwelling with climate change, particularly its ...
Climate-change impactsMarine biologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-50570-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Toward long-range ENSO prediction with an explainable deep learning model
Qi Chen•Yinghao Cui•Guobin Hong•Karumuri Ashok•Yuchun Pu等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/9
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term prediction. In this study, we introduce CTEFNet, a multivariate deep l...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01159-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Growth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies
Du Tianshi•Jing Zhao•Wu Lixin•Wang Hong•Chen Zhaohui等 8 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/25
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
The concept of utilizing a large temperature difference (>20 °C) between the surface and deep seawater to generate electricity, known as the ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), provides a renewable solution to fueling our future. However, it remains poorly assessed how the OTEC resources will...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanographyRenewable energy
10.1038/S41467-022-34835-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Disentangling the North Pacific Meridional Mode from tropical Pacific variability
Richter Ingo•Stuecker Malte F.•Takahashi Naoya•Schneider Niklas
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/11/18
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Variations of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical North Pacific have received considerable attention due to their potential role as a precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific as well as their role in regional climate impacts. These subtropical SST ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-022-00317-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Sharp Increase in rapid intensification of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones over the past decade
Xiaojing Li•Yi Li•Youmin Tang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
The Arabian Sea has experienced a sharp increase in extremely severe tropical cyclones over the past decade, yet the drivers behind this trend remain unclear. Here we examined rapid intensification - a critical process enhancing tropical cyclone intensity - using multi-source observations and reanal...
Climate changeNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02477-W
ISSN:2662-4435
A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
Bhatia Kieran•Baker Alexander•Yang Wenchang•Vecchi Gabriel•Knutson Thomas等 11 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/4
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate and Earth system modellingNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-022-34321-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Increased spread of global flash droughts threatens vegetation productivity resilience
Renjie Guo•Xiuchen Wu•Pei Wang•Tiexi Chen•Xin Chen等 10 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/17
0Flash drought (faster-developing drought) has been pervasively intensified, posing detrimental constraints on vegetation productivity. However, the potential expansion of flash droughts from flash drought hotspots to non-hotspots and its associated risks to vegetation productivity remain unknown. Fu...
BiogeographyClimate-change ecologyMacroecology
10.1038/S41467-026-70417-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming
Wei Liu•Shouwei Li•Chao Li•Maria Rugenstein•Antony P. Thomas
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/6/28
•00 p.1-8
Migrations of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) have significant impacts on tropical climate and society. Here we examine the ITCZ migration caused by CO2 increase using climate model simulations. During the first one to two decades, we find a northward ITCZ displacement primarily related to...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41558-024-02034-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Declining anthropogenic aerosols amplify Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation weakening in the 21st century
S.-Y. Kim•S.-W. Son•Y. Ming•D.-C. Hong•Xihui Gu等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/2
•Vol.17 No.1 p.33550
The Hadley circulation plays a key role in transporting atmospheric heat from the tropics to the subtropics, shaping the climate in low latitudes. While its projected weakening has been largely attributed to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the long-term impact of future anthropogenic aerosol c...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-026-69990-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Theory and the future of land-climate science
Michael P. Byrne•Gabriele C. Hegerl•Jacob Scheff•Ori Adam•Alexis Berg等 30 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/10/11
•00 p.1-8
Climate over land—where humans live and the majority of food is produced—is changing rapidly, driving severe impacts through extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding. Our ability to monitor and model this changing climate is being transformed through new observational systems and increasingly c...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01553-8
ISSN:1752-0894
Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change
Tiffany A. Shaw•Osamu Miyawaki•Hsing-Hung Chou•Russell Blackport
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/3
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Earth’s upper-level jet streams primarily flow in the eastward direction. They often exhibit a north-south component or waviness connected to extreme weather at the surface. Recently the upper-level eastward jet stream was found to exhibit a fast-get-faster response under climate change explained by...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01819-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Assessing the warming biases in CMIP6 models: the roles of fast response and cumulative effects to external forcings
Jiaxin Yan•Naiming Yuan•Christian L. E. Franzke
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/27
0The “hot model” problem is a widely recognized concern, highlighting the need to assess whether a climate model exhibits a warm bias before utilizing its simulations. Traditionally, climate sensitivity indicators such as the Transient Climate Response or the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity have been...
Climate sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-026-01390-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Locally opposite responses of the 2023 Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei extreme rainfall event to global anthropogenic warming
Dajun Zhao•Hongxiong Xu•Ying Li•Yubin Yu•Yihong Duan等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/6
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The effect of anthropogenic warming on extreme rainfall events is a hot topic in this era of global warming, and increasing attention is being paid to its impact at regional and local scales. We explore the localized response of precipitation during the high-impact “23·7” extreme rainfall event in t...
Atmospheric scienceAttribution
10.1038/S41612-024-00584-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Greenhouse warming and anthropogenic aerosols synergistically reduce springtime rainfall in low-latitude East Asia
Ryu Young-Hee•Min Seung-Ki
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/9/10
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Low-latitude East Asia, particularly southern China, has experienced a markedly decreasing springtime rainfall in recent years whereas rainfall trends are weak in mid-latitude East Asia. Details of human influences on this contrasting feature remain uncertain. This study provides a quantification of...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-022-00295-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Differential expansion speeds of Indo-Pacific warm pool and deep convection favoring pool under greenhouse warming
Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin•Zhang Banglin•Gan Qiuying•Wang Lei•Qian Weihong等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/11/24
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), which affects the global climate system through supporting tropical convection, has been reported to expand significantly under greenhouse warming. Although early research revealed that the sea surface temperature (SST) threshold for deep convection (σconv) increas...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-022-00315-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole
Kai-Yuan Li•Wei Liu
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/5/28
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Most oceans over the globe have experienced surface warming during the past century, but the subpolar Atlantic is quite otherwise. The sea surface temperature cooling trend to the south of Greenland, known as the North Atlantic Warming Hole, has raised debate over whether it is driven by the slowing...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02403-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Urban population exposure to apparent temperature whiplash is projected to increase with global warming
Yuheng Yang•Ruiying Zhao
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/12
0Apparent temperature whiplash, characterized by abrupt transitions between hot and cold perceived temperature, poses a great threat to urban climate adaptation. Effective risk assessment requires a comprehensive, human-centered framework to quantify this phenomenon. Here we assess historical and pro...
Climate-change impactsGeography
10.1038/S43247-025-03066-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Future climate change will increase risk to mangrove health in Northern Australia
Christine T. Y. Chung•Pandora Hope•Lindsay B. Hutley•Josephine Brown•Norman C. Duke
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/30
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Mangroves of the wet-dry tropical Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia, survive in a harsh environment. One of the worst recorded mangrove dieback events occurred during the El Niño of 2015 following an extreme, two-year sea level drop, illustrating that enhanced climate variability can exacerbate major s...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00852-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s
Jiale Lou•Matthew Newman•Andrew Hoell
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/7/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-14
Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late ...
Climate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00417-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation
Chen Ziming•Zhou Tianjun•Chen Xiaolong•Zhang Wenxia•Zhang Lixia等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/5/10
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-12
The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread ex...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-30106-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave changes linked to heat domes and land-atmosphere coupling
Fenying Cai•Caihong Liu•Dieter Gerten•Song Yang•Tuantuan Zhang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/9/30
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Heatwaves are projected to substantially increase at a global scale, exacerbating worldwide heat-related risks in the future. However, understanding future heterogeneous heatwave changes and their origins remains challenging. By analyzing the output of various climate models from the Coupled Model I...
Atmospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00779-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
Chengzhi Hou•Zhiwei Xu•Kristopher B. Karnauskas•Danqing Huang•Huayu Lu
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/22
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
The global capacity for wind power has grown rapidly in recent years, yet uncertainties in wind power density (WPD) assessments still hinder effective climate change mitigation efforts. One major challenge is the significant underestimation of WPD when using coarser temporal resolutions (∆t) of wind...
Climate-change mitigationEnergy managementSustainability
10.1038/S41467-025-59195-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents–Kara sea ice loss in winter
Peter Yu Feng Siew•Yutian Wu•Mingfang Ting•Cheng Zheng•Qinghua Ding等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/8/2
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
The Arctic has experienced a rapid sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas in winter over the satellite era. Such sea ice loss has been modulated by anthropogenic forcing and internal variability, but a precise estimate of their relative contribution remains unclear. Here, using large ensemble sim...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01582-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution
Jing Duan•Yuanlong Li•Yilong Lyu•Zhao Jing•Fan Wang
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/14
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Storage of anthropogenic heat in the oceans is spatially inhomogeneous, impacting regional climates and human societies. Climate models project enhanced heat storage in the mid-latitude North Pacific (MNP) and much weaker storage in the tropical Pacific. However, the observed heat storage during the...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-025-56005-7
ISSN:2041-1723
El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition
Hui Chen•Yishuai Jin•Xingchen Shen•Xiaopei Lin•Ruikun Hu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier (SPB), this paper investigates the ENSO asymmetry in SPB and explores the potential factors that may lead to this asymmetry. Both...
Physical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00446-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes
Yi Liu•Michael J. McPhaden•Wenju Cai•Yu Zhang•Jiuwei Zhao等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/12
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic are conducive to increased intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. The period 2023-2024 saw two consecutive warm events but with distinct anomaly patterns. Here we use observations and model outputs over the past several d...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02529-1
ISSN:2662-4435
The role of high-biodiversity regions in preserving Nature’s Contributions to People
Marta Cimatti•Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer•Moreno Di Marco
Nature Sustainability
2023
•2023/7/13
•00 p.1-9
Increasing human pressures are driving a global loss of biodiversity and of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP)—the contributions of living nature to people’s quality of life. Understanding the spatial relationship between biodiversity and NCP is essential for securing Earth’s life support system...
Conservation biologyEcosystem servicesSustainability
10.1038/S41893-023-01179-5
ISSN:2398-9629