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相关论文
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2025
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Nature Climate Change
2022
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Changes in evapotranspiration (ET) affect water availability and ecosystem health. Higher evaporative demand during drought acts to increase ET, but droughts also reduce the moisture supply necessary for ET, limiting predictions of even the sign of ET anomalies. Drought-driven increases in ET ( $${\...
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Projections of global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) are plagued by sizeable uncertainties. Here, we uncover bivariate emergent constraint relationships between projected global ET trends (2015–2100) and historical vapour pressure deficit (VPD) trends (1980–2014) under the low emission scenario...
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Regional hydrological cycle responding to rising temperatures can have significant influences on society and human activities. We suggest a new perspective on East Asia’s enhanced precipitation amount that emphasizes the role of Siberian surface warming. Increased vegetation greenness in late spring...
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Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/18
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Prediction of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has remained a challenge for both scientific research and operational climate prediction for decades. By identifying two dominant modes of the SASM, here we show that the unsatisfactory prediction may be due to the fact that the existing SASM indic...
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An unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) event occurred in the middle-high latitudes of the western North Pacific during the summer of 2022. We demonstrate that excessive precipitation thousands of kilometers away fuels this extreme MHW event in July 2022. In the upper atmosphere, a persistent atmosph...
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Inter-tropical African precipitation regime shifts dominated by tropical easterly jet
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Since the 1990s, inter-tropical Africa (ITA) has experienced consecutive calamitous droughts during the boreal spring. Although the observed precipitation regime changes have been attributed to tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific warming and/or tropical Pacific La Niña-like cooling, the model-proj...
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10.1038/S41612-025-01312-5
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Zonally asymmetric component of summer surface temperature trends caused by intraseasonal time-scale processes
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/22
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Recent years have witnessed extreme heatwaves in Europe and western North America. This study shows that these regions stand out in the zonally asymmetric component of the long-term trend of boreal summer surface temperature, and that intraseasonal timescale processes play an important role in shapi...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00522-Z
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Local meridional circulation changes contribute to a projected slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
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The weakening of zonal atmospheric circulation, a widely accepted projection of climate change in response to global warming, features a weakening of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation (IWC), with an anomalous ascending motion over the western and anomalous descending motion over the eastern Indian...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-022-00242-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Phong V. V. Le•James T. Randerson•Rebecca Willett•Stephen Wright•Padhraic Smyth等 8 人
Nature Communications
2023
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Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property...
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10.1038/S41467-023-39463-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Why East Asian monsoon anomalies are more robust in post El Niño than in post La Niña summers
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Nature Communications
2024
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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) supplies vital rainfall for over one billion people. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) markedly affects the EASM, but its impacts are more robust following El Niño than La Niña. Here, we show that this asymmetry arises from the asymmetry in ENSO evolution: thou...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-51885-7
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Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity
Céline J. W. Bonfils•Benjamin D. Santer•John C. Fyfe•Kate Marvel•Thomas J. Phillips等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2020
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Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach1,2 to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulat...
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10.1038/S41558-020-0821-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Tropical Pacific trends explain the discrepancy between observed and modelled rainfall change over the Americas
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
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Understanding the causes for discrepancies between modelled and observed regional climate trends is important for improving present-day climate simulation and reducing uncertainties in future climate projections. Here, we analyse the performance of coupled climate models in reproducing regional prec...
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Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux
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Nature Communications
2023
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The three tropical basins each have unique roles in the global climate system. The main mechanism by which tropical oceans affect remote climate is the latent heating of local precipitation. Here we report major differences in hydrological sensitivity (precipitation change per unit surface warming) ...
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10.1038/S41558-024-01982-8
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
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In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demo...
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
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During the summer of 2022, Pakistan and northwestern India were hit by an unprecedented spell of heavy rainfall. Despite capturing major tropical climate anomalies, almost all seasonal prediction systems failed to predict the extreme event, far surpassing the 2010 event. While trying to find possibl...
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On the spatial double peak of the 2023–2024 El Niño event
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Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/11
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The 2023–2024 El Niño has raised widespread concern in scientific and public communities. Here, using latest observational reanalysis, we show that this event matured with two distinct spatial peaks of sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, respectively. Like ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01870-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Regional drying over the Western U.S. driven by enhanced atmospheric subsidence amid global moistening from 1980 to 2020
Qinghua Ding•Tiffany Shaw•Hailan Wang•Ian Baxter•Jiang Zhu
Nature Communications
2026
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0As the global climate has warmed anthropogenically over the past decades, the atmosphere across most of the globe has experienced significant moistening, except for a “moistening hole” (MH) -like change over the Western U.S. This regional anomaly since 1980 is at odds with the forced response of cli...
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10.1038/S41467-026-71818-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Substantial shift in phase and amplitude of Indian rainfall beyond 2100
Sahil Sharma•Kyung-Ja Ha•Keith B. Rodgers•Eui-Seok Chung•Sun-Seon Lee等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/21
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Future changes in rainfall over India are critically important, given their impact on millions of people and the country’s agriculture. However, most studies focus only on changes up to the year 2100, leaving long-term projections largely unexplored. In this study, we leverage a 10-member ensemble w...
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10.1038/S41612-025-01126-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Greenhouse warming and anthropogenic aerosols synergistically reduce springtime rainfall in low-latitude East Asia
Ryu Young-Hee•Min Seung-Ki
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/9/10
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Low-latitude East Asia, particularly southern China, has experienced a markedly decreasing springtime rainfall in recent years whereas rainfall trends are weak in mid-latitude East Asia. Details of human influences on this contrasting feature remain uncertain. This study provides a quantification of...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-022-00295-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Global water availability boosted by vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric moisture transport
Cui Jiangpeng•Lian Xu•Huntingford Chris•Gimeno Luis•Wang Tao等 11 人
Nature Geoscience
2022
•2022/10/31
•Vol.15 No.12 p.982-988
Surface-water availability, defined as precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be affected by changes in vegetation. These impacts can be local, due to the modification of evapotranspiration and precipitation, or non-local, due to changes in atmospheric moisture transport. However, the teleconne...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeClimate sciencesEnvironmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S41561-022-01061-7
ISSN:1752-0894
Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023
Ko Tsuchida•Yu Kosaka•Shoshiro Minobe
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/2/12
•00 p.1-7
Earth’s energy uptake—defined as the global mean net incoming radiation at the top of the atmosphere—surged in 2022–2023, contributing to record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes in 2023–2024. Yet, the causes of this extreme energy uptake remain unclear, reflecting limited ...
AttributionEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41561-026-01921-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Opposite tropical circulation trends in climate models and in reanalyses
Rei Chemke•Lorenzo M. Polvani
Nature Geoscience
2019
•2019/6/24
•Vol.12 No.7 p.528-532
The Hadley circulation has large climate impacts at low latitudes by transferring heat and moisture between the tropics and subtropics. Climate projections show a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation by the end of the twenty-first century. Over the past several decades, how...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41561-019-0383-X
ISSN:1752-0894
The interdecadal variations of cross-month correlation feature of the NWPSH
Shuai Li•Jie Yang•Fred Kucharski•ZhiQiang Gong•Ziyu Huang等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/13
•Vol.9 No.1 p.360
The Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) presents a notable and even counterintuitive phenomenon: it shows a strong positive correlation between June and August (correlation coefficient: 0.55, significant at the 99.5% confidence level) during 1979–2005, while this correlation weakens sharply t...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01308-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Connection between the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and Temperature Anomaly across West Antarctic
Ping Zhang•Anmin Duan
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/5/27
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula have experienced dramatic warming in austral spring since the 1970s. Using observations and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4), this study explores the physical mechanism by which the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature anomaly mode (...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-023-00381-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Slow-down in summer warming over Greenland in the past decade linked to central Pacific El Niño
Matsumura Shinji•Yamazaki Koji•Suzuki Kazuyoshi
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/12/16
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-8
Greenland warming and ice loss have slowed down since the early 2010s, in contrast to the rest of the Arctic region. Both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing contribute to recent Greenland warming by reducing cloud cover and surface albedo, yet most climate models are unable to reasonably ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-021-00329-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections
Eui-Seok Chung•Axel Timmermann•Brian J. Soden•Kyung-Ja Ha•Lei Shi等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2019
•2019/4/1
•Vol.9 No.5 p.405-412
A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attr...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41558-019-0446-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Attributing the recent weakening of the South Asian subtropical westerlies
Pankaj Upadhyaya•Saroj K. Mishra•John T. Fasullo•In-Sik Kang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Over the last four decades (1980–2020), the summer westerlies that prevail in South Asia along the monsoon trough region have weakened by about 25% based on multiple reanalysis datasets. Trends in a range of climate model simulations suggest that the weakening is driven by multiple anthropogenic for...
AttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00777-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Role of Antarctic ozone in shaping East Asian summer precipitation variability
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu•Bin Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Most previous studies on the climatic effects of Antarctic ozone have focused primarily on the Southern Hemisphere. This study suggests that September-October Antarctic ozone anomalies account for approximately 12% of the interannual variability in East Asian summer precipitation. The precipitation ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01116-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing
In-Hong Park•Sang-Wook Yeh•Seung-Ki Min•Soon-Il An•Shang-Ping Xie等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/5
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains con...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S43247-024-01751-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Reduced tropical rain-band asymmetry through the seasonal cycle
Pengcheng Zhang•Shang-Ping Xie•Nicholas J. Lutsko•Yuko M. Okumura•Da Yang等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/7/14
•00 p.1-7
The northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is a defining feature of the tropical climate that global models struggle to reproduce. While often attributed to interhemispheric energy imbalance, other processes may also shape its annual-mean structure. Here we use a hierarchy of m...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-026-02046-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Sea surface warming patterns drive hydrological sensitivity uncertainties
Shipeng Zhang•Philip Stier•Guy Dagan•Chen Zhou•Minghuai Wang
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/5/25
•00 p.1-9
The increase in global-mean precipitation with global-mean temperature (hydrological sensitivity; $$\eta$$ ) is constrained by the atmospheric energy budget, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Here we apply warming patch experiments to a climate model to demonstrate that the spatial pattern of sea...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01678-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Seasonal to decadal variations of precipitation oxygen isotopes in northern China linked to the moisture source
Fangyuan Lin•Qiong Zhang•Ashish Sinha•Zhenqian Wang•Josefine Axelsson等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/1/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
A precise characterization of moisture source and transport dynamics over the inland margins of monsoonal China is crucial for understanding the climatic significance of precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Op) variability preserved in the regional proxy archives. Here, we use a general circulation mode...
Climate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41612-024-00564-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Distinct Hadley circulation attributable to rapid and slow El Niño decay and its regional impacts
Xuanliang Ji•Juan Feng•Jianping Li•Yazhou Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/10/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
El Niño significantly impacts the global Hadley circulation (HC), however, the modulation of different decay rates of El Niño on the HC is overlooked. Our research reveals that rapid decay (RD) events cause the global HC to exhibit an equatorially asymmetric configuration, in contrast to the quasi-s...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01221-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Record-breaking emergence of upstream-downstream zonal-consistent variation in the Eurasian jet axis
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Dake Chen•Renguang Wu•Tao Lian等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/4
•Vol.17 No.1 p.26710
Eurasian weather/climate extremes are often considerably linked to the meandering and/or latitudinal shifts of upper-level westerly jet, but the variation and impact of the upstream-downstream zonal consistency (UDZC) in the Eurasian jet axis are less known. Here we report a record-breaking emergenc...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-68772-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
A 50-year cycle of sea surface temperature regulates decadal precipitation in the tropical and South Atlantic region
Iuri Gorenstein•Ilana Wainer•Francesco S. R. Pausata•Luciana F. Prado•Myriam Khodri等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/11/21
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Northeast Brazil and Western Africa are two regions geographically separated by the Atlantic Ocean, both home to vulnerable populations living in semi-arid areas. Atlantic Ocean modes of variability and their interactions with the atmosphere are the main drivers of decadal precipitation in these Atl...
HydrologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-023-01073-0
ISSN:2662-4435
CO2 radiative forcing induces summer cooling over India
Jinhong Liu•Xia Qu•Gang Huang•Chenglin Lyu
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/24
•Vol.17 No.1 p.27240
In response to anthropogenic forcing, the Earth’s surface generally warms as greenhouse gases trap outgoing longwave radiation. Counterintuitively, however, some regions exhibit surface cooling against this global warming background—a phenomenon known as a warming hole. Beyond the well-documented wa...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-69875-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Dong Lu•Leung L. Ruby•Song Fengfei•Lu Jian
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/10
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-10
Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-26797-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate
Fengfei Song•Hongqiang Dong•Lixin Wu•L. Ruby Leung•Jian Lu等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/3/4
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warmin...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41467-025-57501-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hye-Ryeom Kim•Kyung-Ja Ha•Mathew Koll Roxy•Eui-Seok Chung•Bin Wang等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two per...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-025-02652-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming
Tao Geng•Wenju Cai•Fan Jia•Lixin Wu
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/10
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how EN...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-024-50156-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Bin Wang•Renguang Wu•Zeming Wu等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/9
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by app...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-46543-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Strong 2023–2024 El Niño generated by ocean dynamics
Qihua Peng•Shang-Ping Xie•Ayumu Miyamoto•Clara Deser•Pengcheng Zhang等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/5/23
•00 p.1-8
Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record and saw the development of a strong El Niño with widespread impacts. This El Niño event was unusual for its strong oceanic warming yet muted Southern Oscillation and wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific. This discrepancy is perplexing given the histo...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41561-025-01700-9
ISSN:1752-0894
Better monsoon precipitation in coupled climate models due to bias compensation
Ben Yang•Yaocun Zhang•Yun Qian•Fengfei Song•L. Ruby Leung等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2019
•2019/11/22
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-8
Monsoon precipitation is a dominant driver of floods and droughts over East Asia, which affect billions of people. The lack of air-sea coupling has been blamed for the poor East Asian monsoon precipitation simulations in atmosphere-only models because coupled models generally do better. Based on ana...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-019-0100-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice
Jiawei Zhu•Zhiwei Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/30
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-15
The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing st...
Climate changeClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00819-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Interannual oxygen isotope variability in Indian summer monsoon precipitation reflects changes in moisture sources
Gayatri Kathayat•Ashish Sinha•Masahiro Tanoue•Kei Yoshimura•Hanying Li等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/5/20
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-10
The primary influences on the spatio-temporal variability of oxygen isotope compositions in precipitation over the Indian summer monsoon domain are inadequately constrained by the limited observational record. Consequently, the climatic significance of isotopic signatures of precipitation preserved ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-021-00165-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Historical deforestation drives strong rainfall decline across the southern Amazon basin
Jiangpeng Cui•Shilong Piao•Chris Huntingford•Tao Wang•Dominick V. Spracklen
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/13
•Vol.17 No.1 p.16420
The Amazon forest has recently experienced substantial human-induced loss of forest cover. However, the extent to which such historical deforestation has altered regional observed precipitation through inter-regional atmospheric moisture transport remains unclear. Here, we combine satellite observat...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41467-026-68361-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Energetic processes underlying the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon
Tong Lu•Kaiming Hu•Gang Huang•Sang-Wook Yeh•Ya Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/13
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) interannual variability significantly impacts regional climates, with its first mode featuring a lower-level anomalous anticyclone over the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the second mode displaying an anomalous anticyclone over central-northern India. Here, we...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01143-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016
Gerald A. Meehl•Julie M. Arblaster•Christine T. Y. Chung•Marika M. Holland•Alice DuVivier等 8 人
Nature Communications
2019
•2019/1/2
•Vol.10 No.1 p.1-9
After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the ea...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-018-07865-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Amplified seasonal cycle in hydroclimate over the Amazon river basin and its plume region
Yu-Chiao Liang•Min-Hui Lo•Chia-Wei Lan•Hyodae Seo•Caroline C. Ummenhofer等 8 人
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/9/1
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-11
The Amazon river basin receives ~2000 mm of precipitation annually and contributes ~17% of global river freshwater input to the oceans; its hydroclimatic variations can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region (APR) and have potential far-reaching influences on hydro...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41467-020-18187-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Perspective on the shifting interannual variability of recent summer temperature modes in eastern China: Roles of Arctic sea-ice, Arctic Oscillation and Pakistan precipitation
Zeming Wu•Chundi Hu•Kuo Wang•Renguang Wu•Lifei Lin等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Extreme heat events are observed increasingly in eastern China during recent high-summer (July–August), yet their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we reveal considerable changes in local interannual temperature variability, manifesting as the enhancing south-north uniform warming (SNUW) mo...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01236-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Simulated Antarctic sea ice expansion reconciles climate model with observation
Wei Liu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/1/7
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
Observations reveal Antarctic sea ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling trends from 1979 to 2014, whereas climate models mostly simulate the opposite. Here I use historical ensemble simulations with multiple climate models to show that sea-ice natural variability enables the models to sim...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00881-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Two contrasting tropical convection modes from the eastern Pacific to northern Africa that drive Eurasian teleconnections in boreal summer
Zhiwei Zhu•Liaoyuan Shao•Rui Lu•Wenjian Hua
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/18
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Eurasian teleconnections in boreal summer significantly influence regional climates and extremes, yet their dynamic origins remain largely unclear. Here, we revealed two critical modes of tropical convection that drive these Eurasian teleconnections in boreal summer. The first mode is characterized ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00944-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Asymmetric response of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a carbon dioxide removal scenario
Zhang Suqin•Qu Xia•Huang Gang•Hu Peng
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/2/20
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The reversibility of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation under the CO2 removal scenario is critical for climate mitigation and adaptation. In the idealized CO2 ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, SASM precipitation is largely reversible while exhibitin...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00338-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s
Jo Hyun-Su•Ham Yoo-Geun•Kug Jong-Seong•Li Tim•Kim Jeong-Hwan等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/15
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-8
Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-022-34721-8
ISSN:2041-1723
2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)
Gerald A. Meehl•John Fasullo•Sasha Glanville•Antonietta Capotondi•Julie M. Arblaster等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/30
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The onset of a La Niña event in 2020, with a major contribution from the huge amounts of smoke produced by the disastrous 2019–2020 Australian bushfires, resulted in that event persisting over the next several years with significant impacts worldwide. Here, we attempt to understand the processes and...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01204-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Remote modulation of European blocking on 2022 Pakistan summer extreme rainfall: the bridge role of Tibetan Plateau
Jiaxin Ye•Xingwen Jiang•Tuantuan Zhang•Chao Chen•Huimei Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/2
•Vol.9 No.1 p.930
In the summer of 2022, extreme rainfall struck Southern Pakistan, causing catastrophic floods and severe damage to both ecosystems and human communities. Previous studies have linked this extreme rainfall to the European blocking high, yet the underlying physical pathways remain elusive. Using obser...
Climate sciencesHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41612-026-01358-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Robust impact of tropical Pacific SST trends on global and regional circulation in boreal winter
Joonsuk M. Kang•Rhidian Thomas•Nick Dunstone•Tiffany A. Shaw•Tim Woollings
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/27
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
Evidence has emerged of a discrepancy in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) trends over the satellite era, where most coupled climate models struggle to simulate the observed La Niña-like SST trends. Here we highlight wider implications of the tropical Pacific SST trend discrepancy for g...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01192-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter
Abid Muhammad Adnan•Kucharski Fred•Molteni Franco•Almazroui Mansour
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/3/11
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies play an important role in modulating the anomalous climate conditions in the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region during the early boreal winter (November–December; ND) season. In this study, we analyzed the forcing mechani...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00328-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Increased extreme swings of Atlantic intertropical convergence zone in a warming climate
Liu Yi•Cai Wenju•Lin Xiaopei•Li Ziguang
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/8/18
•Vol.12 No.9 p.828-833
Interannual variability of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affects hydrological cycles, extreme weather events, ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods in Atlantic-rim countries. It can experience an interannual extreme swing, moving hundreds of kilometres northwards during boreal...
Atmospheric scienceAttributionHydrologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01445-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
The westerly winds control the zonal migration of rainy season over the Tibetan Plateau
Xingwen Jiang•Fenying Cai•Zhenning Li•Zunya Wang•Tuantuan Zhang
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/10/9
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau is modulated by both the South Asian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly winds. Using observations and numerical simulations, this study highlights the out-of-phase relationships between the mid-latitude westerly wind speeds and the west-east migration...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-023-01035-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Miocene African topography induces decoupling of Somali Jet and South Asian summer monsoon rainfall
Zixuan Han•Niklas Werner•Zhenqian Wang•Xiangyu Li•Zhengquan Yao等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/4
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
The Miocene epoch, marked by significant tectonic and climatic shifts, presents a unique period to study the evolution of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) dynamics. Previous studies have shown conflicting evidence: wind proxies from the western Arabian Sea suggest a weaker Somali Jet during the Mid...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41467-025-62186-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Influences of Central and Eastern Atlantic Niño on the West African and South American summer monsoons
Wen Xing•Chunzai Wang•Lei Zhang•Baiyang Chen•Heng Liu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/9/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
The rainfall variabilities of the West African and South American summer monsoons, pivotal for local and global climate systems, are strongly influenced by tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. This study investigates the impacts of two recently identified Atlantic Niño types, central...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00762-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023
J. Mex•C. Cassou•A. Jézéquel•S. Bony•C. Deser
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/3/19
0Global surface air temperature reached unprecedented heights in early boreal fall 2023, surpassing the previous record for year-to-year temperature increase by a significant margin. We attribute most of this temperature jump to the onset and maturing stages of the 2023 El Niño, with some contributio...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-026-03382-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves
Chi-Cherng Hong•An-Yi Huang•Huang-Hsiung Hsu•Wan-Ling Tseng•Mong-Ming Lu等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/10/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00492-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing
Wen Zhang•Weichen Tao•Gang Huang•Kaiming Hu•Xia Qu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, the resul...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00854-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate
Ziming Chen•Sandro W. Lubis•Jian Lu•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Huilin Huang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/28
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but i...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01196-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Enhanced North Pacific Victoria mode in a warming climate
Kai Ji•Jin-Yi Yu•Jianping Li•Zeng-Zhen Hu•Yu-Heng Tseng等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/27
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), renowned as the dominant sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation in the North Pacific and extensively scrutinized for its extensive influence on global climate patterns, stands in stark contrast to the Victoria mode (VM). Traditionally, the VM, representing t...
Climate changeClimate-change impactsOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00599-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Change of El Niño onset location around 1970
Xiao Pan•Tim Li•Jinhua Yu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
A shift of El Niño onset location from eastern Pacific (EP) to western Pacific (WP) occurred around 1970. It was accompanied by a faster mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in WP and a change of precursory SST and wind anomaly patterns. The eigenvalue analysis of a simple coupled model shows ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00709-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature
Peter Good•Robin Chadwick•Christopher E. Holloway•John Kennedy•Jason A. Lowe等 7 人
Nature
2020
•2020/10/26
•Vol.589 No.7842 p.408-414
Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate1–5. Local sea surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is difficult to disentangle from remote effects of conditions e...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41586-020-2887-3
ISSN:0028-0836
Breaking the link: warming disrupts early-season rainfall predictability in the Caribbean
Leonardo A. Clarke•Jhordanne J. Jones•Michael A. Taylor•Matthew St. Michael Williams•Tajay Edwards等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/19
•Vol.9 No.1 p.520
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic have historically served as reliable predictors of early-season rainfall across the Caribbean. In particular, rainfall onset has been linked to SSTs exceeding the convective threshold necessary to support deep convection. However, recent...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-026-01325-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Intensified annual cycle of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature regulates Pacific cooling
Jianxiang Xu•Tomoki Tozuka•Jing-Jia Luo
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/1/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1440
Recent counterintuitive cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific, with prolonged impacts on global climate, has perplexed the climate community regarding its underlying causes. While previous studies have proposed many potential explanations, the present study identifies a distinct and previously und...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-025-03168-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Pattern asymmetry in extreme Indian Ocean dipoles shapes marine heat-height compound extremes around coastal Indonesia
Mingmei Xie•Jia-Zhen Wang•Lei Zhang•Weiqing Han•Chunzai Wang等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events (EXIODs) exert pronounced climate impacts both regionally and globally, which are closely associated with their sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Here we find an evident asymmetry in SSTA patterns between the positive (EXpIOD) and negative (EXnIOD) phases ...
Atmospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02184-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Changing Northern Hemisphere weather linked to warming amplification in High Mountain Asia
Yongkun Xie•Jianping Huang•Guoxiong Wu•Jiaqin Mi•Yimin Liu等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/19
•Vol.6 No.1 p.9320
High Mountain Asia is a global warming hotspot, yet its influence on Northern Hemisphere extreme weather-related synoptic temperature variability remains unclear. Combining observations and numerical model simulations, we show that amplified High Mountain Asia warming has substantially enhanced summ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-025-02883-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming
Zixiang Yan•Bo Wu•Tim Li•Matthew Collins•Tianjun Zhou等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/24
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
El Niño induced equatorial precipitation centers shift to different longitudinal positions during Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, resulting in distinct global climate responses. However, it remains unexplored how EP and CP El Niño forced precipitation changes may differ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-00933-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Climatic influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the East Asian winter precipitation
Lingaona Zhu•Zhiwei Wu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/8/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
The Antarctic ozone hole exerts a substantial impact on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, yet research exploring its potential influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate is limited. This study unveils a significant positive relationship between interannual variations of Antarctic total colum...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00732-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Differential expansion speeds of Indo-Pacific warm pool and deep convection favoring pool under greenhouse warming
Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin•Zhang Banglin•Gan Qiuying•Wang Lei•Qian Weihong等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/11/24
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-15
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), which affects the global climate system through supporting tropical convection, has been reported to expand significantly under greenhouse warming. Although early research revealed that the sea surface temperature (SST) threshold for deep convection (σconv) increas...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-022-00315-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea
Zeming Wu•Chundi Hu•Lifei Lin•Weizhen Chen•Lixuan Huang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Herein, we report a strong in-phase covariability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) during October–December of 1979–2019, and which is also the dominant mode of BOB–SCS TC activity, accounting for 35% of the total variances in TC track de...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00506-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave
Dillon J. Amaya•Arthur J. Miller•Shang-Ping Xie•Yu Kosaka
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/4/20
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-9
Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the p...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-020-15820-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Predictable equatorial Atlantic variability from atmospheric convection-ocean coupling
Hyacinth C. Nnamchi•Mojib Latif
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/22
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
The Atlantic Niño exerts profound impacts on regional and global atmospheric circulation and climate, and on equatorial Atlantic biogeochemistry and ecosystems. However, the mode’s prediction remains a challenge which has been partly attributed to weak atmosphere-ocean coupling in the region. Here w...
Climate sciencesDeveloping worldEnvironmental sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01041-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Diversity of La Niña onset
Xiao Pan•Tim Li
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/11
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Three La Niña onset types were identified by the K-means cluster analysis of equatorial sea surface temperature anomaly evolutions during the past 111 years (1910–2020). The first type is characterized by a slow basin-wide transition from a neutral year to La Niña, driven by tropical North Atlantic ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01141-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Extreme coastal El Niño events are tightly linked to the development of the Pacific Meridional Modes
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos•Boris Dewitte•René D. Garreaud•Leandra Loyola
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/10
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal impacts for countries along the west coast of South America, as exemplified by the 2017 and 2023 Peru-Ecuador floods. Due to the brev...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00675-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Arctic–Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability
Shinji Matsumura•Yu Kosaka
Nature Communications
2019
•2019/8/1
•Vol.10 No.1 p.1-8
Eurasian continent has experienced cold winters over the past two decades in contrast with Arctic warming. Previous studies have suggested that the cold Eurasian winters are associated with Arctic sea-ice loss, while others attributed them to atmospheric internal variability. However, here we show t...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-019-11359-7
ISSN:2041-1723