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相关论文
80Divergent impacts of climate interventions on China’s north-south water divide
Xiao Zhang•Yuanchao Fan•Jerry Tjiputra•Helene Muri•Qiao Chen
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/9/4
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-13
Solar radiation modification-based climate interventions may cause uneven regional hydrological changes while mitigating warming. Here, we investigate the effects of climate interventions on China’s North Drought-South Flood pattern using the Norwegian Earth System Model supplemented by volcanic dat...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change mitigationHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-02708-0
ISSN:2662-4435
AI-Enabled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation enhances ensemble prediction of extreme El Niño events
Lu Zhou•Rong-Hua Zhang•Lingjiang Tao
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/27
0Data-driven deep learning (DL) models often underestimate the intensity of extreme weather and climate events due to the scarcity of extreme samples in training datasets and the smoothing effects of gradient-based optimization. While ensemble prediction methods based on initial condition (IC) pertur...
Climate sciencesMathematics and computingNatural hazards
10.1038/S41612-025-01303-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Strengthening of favorable environments for North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in midlatitudes in a warmer climate
A. Montoro-Mendoza•C. Calvo-Sancho•J. J. González-Alemán•J. Díaz-Fernández•P. Bolgiani等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/9
•Vol.9 No.1 p.450
Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying tropical cyclones, and some studies suggest that they are now impacting regions farther from the equator, though uncertainties remain. This study examines the North Atlantic (NATL) basin’s autumn climatology, focusing on environments conducive to tropical...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01317-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Weakening of global terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity under increasing intensity of warm extremes
Xiuliang Yuan•Xi Chen•Friday Uchenna Ochege•Rafiq Hamdi•Hossein Tabari等 10 人
Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024
•2024/11/8
•00 p.1-10
The net ecosystem exchange (NEE), determining terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity, is strongly controlled by climate change and has exhibited substantial year-to-year fluctuations. How the increased frequency and intensity of warm extremes affect NEE variations remains unclear. Here, we combin...
Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigation
10.1038/S41559-024-02576-5
ISSN:2397-334X
Future exposure to moist heat extremes linked to soil dryness
Jingwei Zhou•Dragan Milošević•Adriaan J. Teuling
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/18
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3740
Soil moisture critically modulates moist heat via surface energy fluxes, impacting human health and ecosystems under climate change. Using CMIP6 models with or without interactive soil moisture, we dissect its global role. Moist heat is most severe in tropical and extra-tropical regions, with mid-la...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate-change impactsClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01252-0
ISSN:2397-3722
CMIP6 models cannot capture long-term forced changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient
Hannah Byrne•Richard Seager•Jason E. Smerdon
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/6
0The observed zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific has strengthened over the last 150 years, but many CMIP6 models simulate a forced weakening of this gradient over the same period. This has spurred a multi-decade debate over whether models are correctly representing dynamic...
Climate changeOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-025-66839-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Orihuela-Pinto Bryam•England Matthew H.•Taschetto Andréa S.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/6/6
•Vol.12 No.6 p.558-565
Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under global warming, with evidence that a slowdown is already underway. This could have significant ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic sea ice extent and regional North...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01380-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
Shuai Zheng•Peilong Yu•Bo Sun•Huijun Wang•Xiaopei Lin等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/6
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric mode in the Northern Hemisphere, influencing weather and climate. Its variations are driven by numerous factors, including Arctic sea ice, particularly autumn Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (SIC), which can significantly impact the AO through...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01186-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Anomalous increase in sea fog frequency along coastal China in the early 21st century and the aerosol influence
Xinyan Li•Fan Wang•Xiaorui Zhang•Pak Wai Chan•Yuanjian Yang等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/17
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3650
Sea fog hampers coastal activities, yet its decadal variability in coastal China remains insufficiently characterized. Using hourly marine observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), we identify an April–July sea fog frequency (SFF) trend reversal over fog-p...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01247-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing ENSO–rainfall variability due to changes in future tropical temperature–rainfall relationship
Kyung-Sook Yun•June-Yi Lee•Axel Timmermann•Karl Stein•Malte F. Stuecker等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/2/22
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-7
Intensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-rainfall variability in response to global warming is a robust feature across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) iterations, regardless of a lack of robust projected changes in ENSO-sea-surface temperature (SST) variability. Previous s...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-021-00108-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Increasing contribution of the atmospheric vertical motion to precipitation in a warming climate
Tackseung Jun•David Rind
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/30
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-13
Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodyn...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01676-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate-driven synchronization of solar extremes threatens the resilience of Africa’s regional power pool
Paul Adigun•Koji Dairaku•Akinwale T. Ogunrinde•Xian Xue
Npj Clean Energy
2026
•2026/5/20
•Vol.2 No.1 p.110
Africa’s regional power pools promise to expand electricity access and enhance supply reliability for approximately 600 million people currently without electricity by geographically diversifying solar generation. This strategy assumes that extreme weather affecting photovoltaic output remains uncor...
Climate sciencesEnergy science and technology
10.1038/S44406-026-00027-7
ISSN:3059-2232
A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases
Jing Feng•David Paynter•Raymond Menzel•Ryan Kramer
Nature
2026
•2026/3/18
•Vol.652 No.8108 p.105-111
Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) is a main driver of Earth’s energy imbalance and global surface climate change1,2. It remains difficult to constrain, largely because its longwave (LW) instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) component depends on atmospheric state and is subj...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-026-10289-X
ISSN:0028-0836
Carbon restoration potential on global land under water resource constraints
Shouzhang Peng•César Terrer•Benjamin Smith•Philippe Ciais•Qinggong Han等 10 人
Nature Water
2024
•2024/10/24
•00 p.1-11
Ecosystem restoration is a critical nature-based solution to mitigate climate change. However, the carbon sequestration potential of restoration, defined as the maximum achievable carbon storage, has likely been overestimated because previous studies have not adequately accounted for the competition...
Restoration ecologySustainabilityWater resources
10.1038/S44221-024-00323-5
ISSN:2731-6084
Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades
Effy B. John•Karthik Balaguru•L. Ruby Leung•Gregory R. Foltz•Samson M. Hagos
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/5/19
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
Intense winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) generate surface ocean cooling in their wakes, which can persist for several weeks in their aftermath. While multi-decadal observations of the sea surface have shown a substantial warming of the ocean, long-term changes in cold wake recovery time...
Climate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01029-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
King-Fai Li•Ka-Kit Tung
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/12/19
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-17
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~ 100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed historical warming response to historical forcing and their un...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-43583-7
ISSN:2041-1723
North Atlantic temperature and salinity changes are driven by external forcing, underestimated by CMIP6 models
Sergey Molodtsov•Irina Marinov•Wilbert Weijer•Derek DeSantis•Alex Jonko等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/9/30
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken in the 21st century, although evidence of this trend in the observational record is limited and conflicting. Here we utilize the growing set of in-situ observations from Argo floats and Earth System Models, to detect and a...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01210-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Recent pronounced warming on the Mongolian Plateau boosted by internal climate variability
Qingyu Cai•Wen Chen•Shangfeng Chen•Shang-Ping Xie•Jinling Piao等 7 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/2/14
•00 p.1-8
Exceptionally strong summertime warming occurred over the Mongolian Plateau between 1986 and 2004, at a rate that was three times the average terrestrial warming in the Northern Hemisphere. The physical processes responsible for this extreme warming remain unclear. Here we show that the synchronous ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01377-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty
Grégory V. Cesana•Andrew S. Ackerman•Ann M. Fridlind•Israel Silber•Anthony D. Del Genio等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/4/6
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-14
The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ra...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-024-01339-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate change threatens terrestrial water storage over the Tibetan Plateau
Li Xueying•Long Di•Scanlon Bridget R.•Mann Michael E.•Li Xingdong等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/8/15
•00 p.1-7
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the Tibetan Plateau, a major global water tower, is crucial in determining water transport and availability to a large downstream Asian population. Climate change impacts on historical and future TWS changes, however, are not well quantified. Here we used bottom-...
Cryospheric scienceHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-022-01443-0
ISSN:1758-678X
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification
Hervé Douville
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/9/4
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
The Arctic near-surface warming is much faster than its global counterpart. Yet, this Arctic amplification occurs a rate that is season, model and forcing-dependent. The present study aims at using temperature observations and reanalyses to constrain the projections of Arctic climate during the Nove...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-023-00949-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Human-induced water loss potentially threatens sustainable development of sandy regions in China
Runa A•Xinliang Pan•Liudi Zhu•Kelvin T. F. Chan•Zhangcai Qin等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Water is indispensable for sustainable socioeconomic development, especially in China’s sandy regions. Despite existing studies in sandy regions, the drivers of changes in total water storage and their potential impacts remain inadequately understood. Here we found a 55.97 billion m³ net loss in tot...
GeographyHydrologySustainability
10.1038/S43247-025-02046-1
ISSN:2662-4435
High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change
Junyu Wang•Nikolaos Nikolaou•Matthias an der Heiden•Christopher Irrgang
Communications Medicine
2024
•2024/10/21
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to often fragmented data archives over different agglo...
EpidemiologyPublic health
10.1038/S43856-024-00643-3
ISSN:2730-664X
Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS
Hannah J. Rubin•Leyuan Zhang•Joshua S. Fu•Deeksha Rastogi•Shih-Chieh Kao等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/19
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is impor...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-025-01055-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Seasonal-to-decadal prediction of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Choi Jung•Son Seok-Woo
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/4/14
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The growing demand for skillful near-term climate prediction encourages an improved prediction of low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This study assesses their seasonal-to-decadal prediction ...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00251-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Southern Ocean influence on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across climate states
Zhaoyang Song•Mojib Latif•Wonsun Park•Yuming Zhang
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/10/17
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Various proxy data agree on a shallow Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the last glacial maximum (LGM), extending down to 2000 m − 2500 m depth, which is similar to the AMOC geometry projected by climate models over the 21st century with rising atmospheric CO2. The AMOC stren...
Climate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41467-025-64268-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Enhanced Arctic sea-ice retreat due to pronounced pacificization effect in the Holocene
Yuying Zhang•Limin Hu•Xun Gong•Xiaotong Xiao•Zhizheng Jia等 14 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/22
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Future climate confronts major challenges due to ongoing Arctic sea-ice retreat. Notably, eventful sea-ice loss in the Holocene appears comparable circumstance, but associated physics remians poorly understood. Here we present a high-resolution and semi-quantitative reconstruction of sea-ice conditi...
Cryospheric sciencePalaeoceanographyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02796-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity
Timothy A. Myers•Ryan C. Scott•Mark D. Zelinka•Stephen A. Klein•Joel R. Norris等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/5/13
•Vol.11 No.6 p.501-507
Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO2 doubling. Here, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellit...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-021-01039-0
ISSN:1758-678X
Prolonged wind droughts in a warming climate threaten global wind power security
Meng Qu•Lu Shen•Zhenzhong Zeng•Bolei Yang•Huiru Zhong等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/7/28
•00 p.1-8
Prolonged low-wind events, termed wind droughts, threaten wind turbine electricity generation, yet their future trajectories remain poorly understood. Here, using hourly data from 21 IPCC models, we reveal robust increasing trends in wind drought duration at both global and regional scales by 2100, ...
AttributionEnergy supply and demandProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-025-02387-X
ISSN:1758-678X
Sahara greening may have diminished mid-Holocene Atlantic tropical cyclones
Yanning Ou•Ming Zhang•Yonggang Liu•Haikun Zhao•Xi Cao等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/16
0While anthropogenic warming is projected to green the Sahara region, the potential impacts on tropical cyclone remain poorly understood. Here we examine the mid-Holocene Sahara greening (characterized by expanded vegetation and reduced dust emissions) as a potential analog for the future, combining ...
Atmospheric dynamicsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-026-03481-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future
Wahl Eugene R.•Zorita Eduardo•Diaz Henry F.•Hoell Andrew
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/9/19
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-14
Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current p...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-022-00532-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Quantifying the impact of extreme weather on China’s hydropower–wind–solar renewable energy system
Jianjian Shen•Yue Wang•Mengke Lin•Chuntian Cheng•Jan K. Kazak等 10 人
Nature Water
2025
•2025/4/3
•00 p.1-15
Carbon reduction goals have driven China to become the world’s largest renewable energy system (RES) that is dominated by hydropower, wind power and solar power. However, the meteorological sensitivity of wind and solar power greatly affects the reliability and generating capability of the RES, part...
HydroelectricitySolar energyWind energy
10.1038/S44221-025-00408-9
ISSN:2731-6084
Recent cloud trends and extremes reaffirm established bounds on cloud feedback and aerosol-cloud interactions
Mark D. Zelinka•Timothy A. Myers•Yi Qin•Li-Wei Chao•Stephen A. Klein等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/3/31
0Earth’s energy imbalance has increased markedly over the past two decades, reaching a record in 2023. Both the long-term trend and year-to-year variations are linked to reduced reflection of sunlight by low-level clouds, which is pronounced over Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, the causes of the...
Climate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S43247-026-03461-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Future Antarctic snow accumulation trend is dominated by atmospheric synoptic-scale events
Quentin Dalaiden•Hugues Goosse•Jan T. M. Lenaerts•Marie G. P. Cavitte•Naomi Henderson
Communications Earth & Environment
2020
•2020/12/11
•Vol.1 No.1 p.1-9
Over the last century, the increase in snow accumulation has partly mitigated the total dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss. However, the mechanisms behind this increase are poorly understood. Here we analyze the Antarctic Ice Sheet atmospheric moisture budget based on climate reanalysis and model...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-020-00062-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Moderate climate sensitivity due to opposing mixed-phase cloud feedbacks
Ivy Tan•Chen Zhou•Aubert Lamy•Catherine L. Stauffer
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/4
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-6
Earth’s climate sensitivity quantifies the ultimate change in global mean surface air temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Recent assessments estimate that Earth’s climate sensitivity very likely lies between 2.3 °C and 4.7 °C, with the representation of clouds in...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00948-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations
Min-Seop Ahn•Paul A. Ullrich•Jiwoo Lee•Peter J. Gleckler•Hsi-Yen Ma等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/15
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercompari...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00685-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output
Sarah Feron•Raúl R. Cordero•Alessandro Damiani•Robert B. Jackson
Nature Sustainability
2020
•2020/11/16
•Vol.4 No.3 p.270-276
Sustainable development requires climate change mitigation and thereby a fast energy transition to renewables. However, climate change may affect renewable power outputs by enhancing the weather variability and making extreme conditions more frequent. High temperature or clouds, for example, can lea...
Climate-change mitigationEnergy security
10.1038/S41893-020-00643-W
ISSN:2398-9629
Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere
In-Hong Park•Sang-Wook Yeh•Wenju Cai•Guojian Wang•Seung-Ki Min等 6 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/7/13
•00 p.1-7
Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthro...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-023-01728-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
Tropical cyclone rainfall extends inland
E Deng•Qian Xiang•De-Hui Ouyang•Kelvin T. F. Chan•Dengxin He等 14 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/14
0Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall, which is typically more intense over the ocean, has increasingly caused devastating floods in coastal regions in recent decades. Regions beyond 100 km inland from coastlines often lack adequate preparedness for TC-induced flooding, underscoring the need to assess whet...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-026-70647-1
ISSN:2041-1723
The intensification of Arctic warming as a result of CO 2 physiological forcing
So-Won Park•Jin-Soo Kim•Jong-Seong Kug
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/4/29
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-7
Stomatal closure is one of the main physiological responses to increasing CO2 concentration, which leads to a reduction in plant water loss. This response has the potential to trigger changes in the climate system by regulating surface energy budgets—a phenomenon known as CO2 physiological forcing. ...
BiogeochemistryClimate sciencesEcology
10.1038/S41467-020-15924-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Enhanced forest carbon gains from stronger protection in China’s protected areas
Yuwen Fu•Wang Li•Zheng Niu•Fang Chen•Bing Zhang等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/10
•Vol.17 No.1 p.26090
Protected areas (PAs) are central to China’s forest conservation strategy, yet their effectiveness for carbon storage across governance and management contexts remains unclear. A clearer understanding of their current and future carbon benefits is essential for informing conservation and climate pol...
Conservation biologyEnvironmental impactMacroecologySustainability
10.1038/S41467-026-69505-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Land-atmosphere feedbacks and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing intensify subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions
Yinghao Fu•Haishen Lü•Ali Levent Yagci•Yonghua Zhu•Yingying Xu等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/3/23
0Abrupt transitions from drought to pluvial conditions are increasingly reported and pose substantial risks to global hydrological stability. However, their occurrence patterns, underlying mechanisms, and future trajectories remain insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a soil moisture-precipita...
Hydrology
10.1038/S43247-026-03371-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Anthropogenic enhancement of subsurface soil moisture droughts
Yansong Guan•Xihui Gu•Aiguo Dai•Tianjun Zhou•Xing Yuan等 15 人
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/11/14
•00 p.1-8
Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated soil moisture droughts globally, yet this exacerbation in their spatiotemporal evolution in terms of soil vertical structure remains unclear. Here we propose a Lagrangian four-dimensional tracking framework to identify a type of spatial (horizontal and ve...
AttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41558-025-02458-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Global warming at near-constant tropospheric relative humidity is supported by observations
Douville Hervé•Qasmi Saïd•Ribes Aurélien•Bock Olivier
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/10
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-7
Although global warming is expected to occur at approximately constant relative humidity, the latest IPCC report remains elusive about the magnitude of observed changes in tropospheric humidity and their attribution. Here we use a quality-controlled dataset of in situ observations, global reanalyses...
AttributionProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-022-00561-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss
Maria-Vittoria Guarino•Louise C. Sime•David Schröeder•Irene Malmierca-Vallet•Erica Rosenblum等 13 人
Nature Climate Change
2020
•2020/8/10
•Vol.10 No.10 p.928-932
The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simula...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciencesCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S41558-020-0865-2
ISSN:1758-678X
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Yi Li•Youmin Tang•Shuai Wang•Ralf Toumi•Xiangzhou Song等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/8/24
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctu...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41467-023-40605-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Ocean dynamics shape marine heatwaves and their predictability
Xianglin Ren•Wei Liu•Liping Zhang
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/18
•Vol.17 No.1 p.28960
Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and intense under anthropogenic warming, posing increasing threats to marine ecosystems and coastal societies, necessitating a better understanding of their mechanism and predictability. Here we show how ocean dynamics modulate marine heatwaves globally by ...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41467-026-69509-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Yating Chen•Aobo Liu•John C. Moore
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/5/15
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-10
The Arctic is warming far faster than the global average, threatening the release of large amounts of carbon presently stored in frozen permafrost soils. Increasing Earth’s albedo by the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way of offsetting some of the adverse ...
Climate-change mitigationCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-020-16357-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Keith B. Rodgers•Sang-Yoon Jun•Joo-Hong Kim等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of tropical Paci...
AttributionPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02039-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young•Elizaveta Malinina•Quinn E. Barber•Karen Garcia Perdomo•Salvatore R. Curasi等 16 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/20
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using clima...
AttributionClimate changeClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00841-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity
Wang Yaoping•Mao Jiafu•Hoffman Forrest M.•Bonfils Céline J. W.•Douville Hervé等 13 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/11
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the no...
AttributionHydrology
10.1038/S41467-022-34071-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Distinct impacts of diverse forcing agents on Arctic sea ice since the mid-twentieth century
Yu-Chi Lee•Wei Liu•Clara Deser•Marika Holland
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/12
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3620
Arctic sea ice has undergone non-monotonic changes since the middle of the last century. Here, we investigate the cause of this behavior by isolating and quantifying the effects of anthropogenic aerosols, well-mixed greenhouse gases, and biomass burning on sea ice dynamics through climate model simu...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-025-01238-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability
Wenyu Zhou•L. Ruby Leung•Chuan-Chieh Chang•Ming Zhao•Huang-Hsiung Hsu等 9 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/12/15
•00 p.1-10
Since 1980, tropical cyclones have migrated poleward, but it remains unclear whether this trend reflects long-term climate change or temporary climate variability. Here we investigate the drivers of this poleward migration using multiple observational datasets and global models that permit tropical ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41561-025-01866-2
ISSN:1752-0894
Global decline of pelagic fauna in a warmer ocean
Ariza Alejandro•Lengaigne Matthieu•Menkes Christophe•Lebourges-Dhaussy Anne•Receveur Aurore等 10 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/9/29
•Vol.12 No.10 p.928-934
Pelagic fauna is expected to be impacted under climate change according to ecosystem simulations. However, the direction and magnitude of the impact is still uncertain and still not corroborated by observation-based statistical studies. Here we compile a global underwater sonar database and 20 ocean...
BiogeographyBiooceanographyClimate-change ecologyClimate-change impactsMarine biology
10.1038/S41558-022-01479-2
ISSN:1758-678X
ENSO phase transition enables prediction of winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead
Kiwook Kim•Myong-In Lee•Adam A. Scaife•Doug M. Smith
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/25
•Vol.17 No.1 p.25880
The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a dominant mode of climate variability affecting temperature and precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere, yet its prediction at seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) lead times remains challenging. Here, using multi-year hindcasts from a multi-model ensem...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-70646-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Urban food delivery services as extreme heat adaptation
Yunke Zhang•Daoping Wang•Yu Liu•Kerui Du•Peng Lu等 7 人
Nature Cities
2025
•2025/1/2
•00 p.1-10
More frequent global extreme heat events prompt behavioral adaptations, such as reducing outdoor activities to relieve potential distress. The emergence of innovative daily life services in cities offers new avenues for implementing such adaptive strategies. Here we investigate whether urban residen...
Climate-change impactsScience, technology and society
10.1038/S44284-024-00172-Z
ISSN:2731-9997
Arctic ice loss is delaying monsoon retreat over the Indochina Peninsula
Yilin Duo•Jie Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/17
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3640
Warming and extreme precipitation events frequently occur in the Asian summer monsoon during autumn, and their causes are still unclear. In this study, we investigate variations in the monsoon and autumn precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) using reanalysis data, observational datasets, ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-025-01241-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Distinct sub-period trends in tropospheric ozone column over the East Asian outflow region during 1990-2019
Zhou Zang•Jane Liu•David Tarasick•Jing M. Chen•Yingjie Li等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/11
0Tropospheric ozone, an important greenhouse gas and pollutant, has increased over East Asia in recent decades. However, how this increase evolves temporally remains unclear. Here, we construct a global tropospheric ozone column (TrOC) dataset based on the Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01406-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s
Rousseau-Rizzi Raphaël•Emanuel Kerry
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/8/29
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Atlantic hurricane activity experienced a pronounced lull during the 1970s and 1980s. The current explanation that anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing cooled the sea surface locally fails to capture the magnitude of this large decrease in activity. To explain this hurricane drought, we propose t...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41467-022-32779-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Causal pathways underlying global soil moisture–precipitation coupling
Jing Sun•Kun Yang•Xiaogang He•Guiling Wang•Yong Wang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/10/8
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Surface soil moisture–precipitation (SSM–P) coupling involves complex processes, with sensible heat (SH) and evapotranspiration as important mediators. However, these coupling pathways and their underlying mechanisms across the globe remain unclear, limiting hydrometeorological predictions and proje...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S41467-025-63999-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming
Ouyang Zutao•Sciusco Pietro•Jiao Tong•Feron Sarah•Lei Cheyenne等 13 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/7/1
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-9
The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify th...
Climate changeClimate-change ecology
10.1038/S41467-022-31558-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Future increases in Eurasian mid-latitude winter temperature variability shaped by a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Sangwoo Lee•Hyo-Seok Park•Maeng-Ki Kim•Seung-Ki Min•Hyokyeong Hwang
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/5
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Climate models project reduced temperature variability in Northern high latitudes due to global warming, but impacts on mid-latitude variability remain uncertain. Here, using multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we find that daily winter temperature variability inc...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-025-02249-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Emergence of an oceanic CO2 uptake hole under global warming
Huiji Lee•Kyung-Min Noh•Ji-Hoon Oh•So-Won Park•Yechul Shin等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/3
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-9
The ocean is a crucial sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its future response remains uncertain. Here, using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under different CO2 emission rates, we find a pronounced weakening of ocean CO2 uptake in the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), distinct from the...
Carbon cycleClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-025-57724-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature
Fukai Liu•Fengfei Song•Yiyong Luo
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/10
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Changes in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) have far-reaching ecological and societal implications. Previous studies have found an intensified SST seasonal cycle under global warming, but whether such changes have emerged in historical records remains largely unknown. Here, we rev...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-48381-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering
Chao Yue•Svetlana Jevrejeva•Ying Qu•Liyun Zhao•John C. Moore
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/7
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (so...
Climate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-023-00466-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear
Emma J. Barton•Cornelia Klein•Christopher M. Taylor•John Marsham•Douglas J. Parker等 8 人
Nature Geoscience
2025
•2025/4/4
•Vol.18 No.4 p.330-336
Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soi...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41561-025-01666-8
ISSN:1752-0894
Enhanced response of extreme compound events to cumulative CO2 emissions
Jun Li•Yao Zhang•Philippe Ciais•Hongying Zhang•Zhaoli Wang等 7 人
Nature
2026
•2026/5/13
•00 p.1-7
Compound events—such as concurrent hot–wet and drought–heat extremes—are among the most consequential climate hazards on Earth1–4 and are projected to become more severe under warming. Although the transient mean temperature response to cumulative CO2 emissions has been well quantified5–8, the corre...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41586-026-10544-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Ecological restoration reverses terrestrial water storage losses in the Mu Us Sandyland in China
Hao Zhou•Yilin Sun•Jianli Chen•Qing He•Hanwen Hu等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/21
0Large-scale ecological restoration has enhanced ecosystem services, but its impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) remain debated. Our study challenges the prevailing assumption that restoration activities inevitably reduce TWS. Here we construct a long-term TWS record (1987-2020) to analyze hyd...
GeophysicsHydrology
10.1038/S43247-025-03101-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss
Alexander R. Gottlieb•Justin S. Mankin
Nature
2024
•2024/1/10
•Vol.625 No.7994 p.293-300
Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines1–4. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass5,6 have made the detection and attribution of human-forc...
AttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S41586-023-06794-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Single hemisphere air-sea interaction shapes the South Pacific surface warming and wind change
Jian Ma•Biao Feng•Robin Chadwick•Dongxiao Wang•Guihua Wang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/3
•Vol.9 No.1 p.330
The projected increase in the sea surface temperature (SST) into the 21st century exhibits a robust southeastern minimum (SEM) pattern in the subtropical Pacific. Despite the agreement between observations and climate models, this pattern remains poorly addressed, with gaps in the proposed mechanism...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01299-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
Lukas Brunner•Aiko Voigt
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/18
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow region...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-024-46349-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Weakening of subsurface ocean temperature seasonality over the past four decades
Fukai Liu•Yiyong Luo•Fengfei Song•Wen-Xiao Yu•Jian Lu等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/12/31
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The seasonal cycle, responsible for much of the temperature variability in the upper ocean, exerts profound climatic and ecological influence. While surface intensification of temperature seasonality has been widely examined, changes beneath the ocean surface remain unknown. Here we analyze multiple...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01986-4
ISSN:2662-4435
ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate
Wei Zhou•Changjia Li•Haicheng Zhang•Lindsay C. Stringer•Jingyu Wang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/4
0A thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation r...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change ecologyEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-66987-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Fukai Liu•Xun Li•Yiyong Luo•Wenju Cai•Jian Lu等 9 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/1/2
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
Observational evidence and climate model experiments suggest a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) since the mid-1990s. Increased greenhouse gases and the declined anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) over North America and Europe are believed to contribute to the AMOC slowdow...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-023-44597-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Zooplankton grazing is the largest source of uncertainty for marine carbon cycling in CMIP6 models
Tyler Rohr•Anthony J. Richardson•Andrew Lenton•Matthew A. Chamberlain•Elizabeth H. Shadwick
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/6/14
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-22
The current generation of Earth system models used by the United Nations to project future climate scenarios (CMIP6) relies heavily on marine biogeochemical models to track the fate of carbon absorbed into the oceans. Here we compare 11 CMIP6 marine biogeochemical models and find the largest source ...
BiogeochemistryCarbon cycleMarine chemistry
10.1038/S43247-023-00871-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Fusion of multi-source precipitation records via coordinate-based generative models
Sencan Sun•Congyi Nai•Baoxiang Pan•Wentao Li•Lu Li等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/29
0Precipitation remains one of the most challenging climate variables to observe and predict. Existing datasets face intricate trade-offs: gauges are relatively trustworthy but sparse, satellites provide near-global coverage with retrieval uncertainties, and numerical models offer physical consistency...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41467-025-67987-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate
Ariaan Purich•Julie M. Arblaster•Ghyslaine Boschat•Zoe E. Gillett•Will Hobbs等 21 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/2
•00 p.1-19
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences Southern Hemisphere temperature and precipitation, ocean circulation, carbon cycling and the Antarctic cryosphere. In this Review, we examine the dynamics, projections and effects of the SAM, focusing on future implications for the Southern Ocean and Antarc...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeCryospheric scienceOcean sciences
10.1038/S43017-025-00746-Y
ISSN:2662-138X
Changes in temporal inequality of precipitation extremes over China due to anthropogenic forcings
Duan Weili•Zou Shan•Christidis Nikolaos•Schaller Nathalie•Chen Yaning等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/4/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-13
Based on the Gini-coefficients, this study has presented an analysis of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on the temporal inequality (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) of precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), intensity (SDII), and extremes (R95p and RX5day) at national and regional scales (ei...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrology
10.1038/S41612-022-00255-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America
Xiuyuan Ding•Gang Chen•Pengfei Zhang•Daniela I. V. Domeisen•Clara Orbe
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/27
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-10
Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple mea...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-023-00845-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Strong cloud–circulation coupling explains weak trade cumulus feedback
Vogel Raphaela•Albright Anna Lea•Vial Jessica•George Geet•Stevens Bjorn等 6 人
Nature
2022
•2022/11/30
•Vol.612 No.7941 p.696-700
Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation. The response of trade cumulus clouds to climate change is a key uncertainty in climate projections1–4. Trade cumulus feedbacks in climate models are governed by changes in cloud fraction near cloud base5,...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41586-022-05364-Y
ISSN:0028-0836