Thermal comfort indices time-series derived from ERA5 reanalysis
English
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CDS
数据描述
The Copernicus Climate Data Store is a climate data resource providing datasets that document the Earth’s past, present, and future climate for research, analysis, and applications. It contains a searchable catalogue of climate records accessible through an API, cloud infrastructure, and open-source Python tools for processing and visualisation. The text highlights newly published content including thermal comfort indices time series derived from ERA5 reanalysis and terrestrial water storage anomaly data from 2002 to the present derived from satellite gravimetry observations. These datasets support climate monitoring, impact assessment, and environmental decision-making by supplying time-resolved indicators of human thermal conditions and changes in terrestrial water storage.
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More frequent and severe droughts in Central Europe threaten water security and ecosystem resilience. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which regulates much of Europe’s hydroclimate, increasingly drives summer drought propagation across the region. Here we combined a process-based, isotop...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-026-03729-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Breaking the link: warming disrupts early-season rainfall predictability in the Caribbean
Leonardo A. Clarke•Jhordanne J. Jones•Michael A. Taylor•Matthew St. Michael Williams•Tajay Edwards等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/19
•Vol.9 No.1 p.520
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic have historically served as reliable predictors of early-season rainfall across the Caribbean. In particular, rainfall onset has been linked to SSTs exceeding the convective threshold necessary to support deep convection. However, recent...
Climate sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-026-01325-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Skillful seasonal prediction of wind energy resources in the contiguous United States
Xiaosong Yang•Thomas L. Delworth•Liwei Jia•Nathaniel C. Johnson•Feiyu Lu等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/11
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
A key challenge with the wind energy utilization is that winds, and thus wind power, are highly variable on seasonal to interannual timescales because of atmospheric variability. There is a growing need of skillful seasonal wind energy prediction for energy system planning and operation. Here we dem...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-024-01457-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Sea-ice retreat suggests re-organization of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas
Moore G. W. K.•Våge K.•Renfrew I. A.•Pickart R. S.
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/1/10
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-8
Water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas, triggered by air-sea heat fluxes, is an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These regions are undergoing rapid warming, associated with a retreat in ice cover. Here we present an analysis covering 195...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-021-27641-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management
Zhen Yu•Shirong Liu•Haikui Li•Jingjing Liang•Weiguo Liu等 14 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/4/11
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 ...
Carbon cycleForestry
10.1038/S41467-024-47143-5
ISSN:2041-1723
AI for climate impacts: applications in flood risk
Anne Jones•Julian Kuehnert•Paolo Fraccaro•Ophélie Meuriot•Tatsuya Ishikawa等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/6/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address the global threat of climate change. Here, we consider climate change applications, and review the ability of AI technologies to better quantify climate change-induced hazards, impacts and ...
Climate changeClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-023-00388-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Mapping every adult baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) across the Sahel and relationships to rural livelihoods
Ke Huang•Martin Brandt•Pierre Hiernaux•Compton J. Tucker•Laura Vang Rasmussen等 13 人
Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024
•2024/7/25
•00 p.1-9
The baobab tree (Adansonia digitata L.) is an integral part of rural livelihoods throughout the African continent. However, the combined effects of climate change and increasing global demand for baobab products are currently exerting pressure on the sustainable utilization of these resources. Here ...
BiogeographySustainability
10.1038/S41559-024-02483-9
ISSN:2397-334X
Strong-wind events control barchan dune migration
Hongjing Ren•Xin Gao•Yongcheng Zhao•Jiaqiang Lei•Philippe De Maeyer等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/5/22
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Wind is the most important external force in shaping aeolian landforms. Yet, it remains unclear what role the strong-wind events will play in the development of aeolian landforms compared with the effect of regular winds. A fundamental question is, what are the contributions of different wind speed ...
Environmental sciencesGeomorphology
10.1038/S43247-024-01444-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Substantially underestimated global health risks of current ozone pollution
Yuan Wang•Yuanjian Yang•Qiangqiang Yuan•Tongwen Li•Yi Zhou等 13 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/2
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-15
Existing assessments might have underappreciated ozone-related health impacts worldwide. Here our study assesses current global ozone pollution using the high-resolution (0.05°) estimation from a geo-ensemble learning model, with key focuses on population exposure and all-cause mortality burden. Our...
Environmental sciencesEnvironmental social sciences
10.1038/S41467-024-55450-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally
John T. Abatzoglou•Crystal A. Kolden•Alison C. Cullen•Mojtaba Sadegh•Emily L. Williams等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/7/10
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme...
AttributionFire ecology
10.1038/S41467-025-61608-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Aerosol-induced surface cooling elevates relative humidity on the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Jina Park•S. -Y. Simon Wang•Hyungjun Kim•Jee-Hoon Jeong•Nobuyuki Utsumi等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
The Indo-Gangetic Plain has experienced a substantial rise in relative humidity in recent decades, with implications for human health and well-being. Here we use atmospheric reanalysis and large-ensemble climate model simulations to assess changes since the 1960s. Relative humidity increased by 10.3...
Climate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental health
10.1038/S43247-025-02513-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Comparing deuterium excess to large-scale precipitation recycling models in the tropics
Cropper Stephen•Solander Kurt•Newman Brent D.•Tuinenburg Obbe A.•Staal Arie等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2021
•2021/12/2
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-9
Precipitation recycling is essential to sustaining regional ecosystems and water supplies, and it is impacted by land development and climate change. This is especially true in the tropics, where dense vegetation greatly influences recycling. Unfortunately, large-scale models of recycling often exhi...
Atmospheric dynamicsGeochemistryHydrology
10.1038/S41612-021-00217-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Considering socio-political framings when analyzing coastal climate change effects can prevent maldevelopment on small islands
David C. Gabriel•Hennig Arne•Ratter Beate M. W.•Roeber Volker•Zahid等 6 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/10/7
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-19
Adapting to climate change and sea level rise is challenging on small islands. False adaptation can lead to adverse impacts on natural and societal dynamics. Therefore, an interdisciplinary perspective on the interaction of natural dynamics, societal demands, and political decisions is crucial. In t...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesEnvironmental social sciences
10.1038/S41467-021-26082-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere
Quanbo Zhao•Chenzhi Wang•Xuhui Wang•Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei•Christoph Müller等 22 人
Nature Food
2026
•2026/2/18
•Vol.7 No.2 p.194-205
Exposure to extreme high temperatures is a major constraint on global crop productivity, yet most large-scale assessments rely on fixed temperature thresholds that overlook regional variation in genetics, environment and management. Consequently, the temperature thresholds at which heat exposure beg...
AgroecologyClimate change
10.1038/S43016-026-01298-0
ISSN:2662-1355
Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations
Ga-Yeong Seo•Seung-Ki Min•Donghyun Lee•Seok-Woo Son•Chanil Park等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-12
This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the summertime hourly extreme rainfall event (HER) over South Korea. The UKESM-forced regional climate model is utilized to simulate HER over South Korea in the historical (2001–2005) and future periods (2091–2095) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 s...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01067-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Distinct tropospheric anomalies during sudden stratospheric warming events accompanied by strong and weak Ural Ridge
Chongyang Zhang•Jiankai Zhang•Amanda C. Maycock•Wenshou Tian
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/17
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
Different tropospheric precursor anomalies leading to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) may result in different circulation evolution. This study finds that there are distinct differences in tropospheric circulation evolutions during SSWs following anomalously strong- (SUR-SSWs) and weak- (WUR-SS...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00826-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Xuezhi Tan•Xinxin Wu•Zeqin Huang•Jianyu Fu•Xuejin Tan等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/5/18
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-15
Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic i...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-023-38510-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Data-driven seasonal climate predictions via variational inference and transformers
Lluís Palma•Alejandro Peraza•David Civantos-Prieto•Amanda Duarte•Stefano Materia等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/15
•Vol.9 No.1 p.480
Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or empirical statistical techniques. GCMs are widely used but require substantial computational resources, limiting their capacity. In contrast, statistical methods often lack...
Atmospheric dynamicsEngineeringEnvironmental impactProjection and predictionStatistics
10.1038/S41612-026-01320-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
A foundation model for the Earth system
Cristian Bodnar•Wessel P. Bruinsma•Ana Lucic•Megan Stanley•Anna Allen等 18 人
Nature
2025
•2025/5/21
•Vol.641 No.8065 p.1180-1187
Reliable forecasting of the Earth system is essential for mitigating natural disasters and supporting human progress. Traditional numerical models, although powerful, are extremely computationally expensive1. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have shown promise in improving both predic...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric dynamicsComputational science
10.1038/S41586-025-09005-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth
Daniel L. Swain•Andreas F. Prein•John T. Abatzoglou•Christine M. Albano•Manuela Brunner等 9 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/9
•Vol.6 No.1 p.35-50
Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review, we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ based on the Standardized Precip...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43017-024-00624-Z
ISSN:2662-138X
Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
Jianhao Zhang•Yao-Sheng Chen•Edward Gryspeerdt•Takanobu Yamaguchi•Graham Feingold
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/13
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate a...
Atmospheric chemistryAttributionClimate-change policyEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-024-01911-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Soil degradation in Europe is projected to accelerate under changing land use and climate
Mehdi H. Afshar•Amirhossein Hassani•Pasquale Borrelli•Panos Panagos•David A. Robinson等 7 人
Communications Sustainability
2026
•2026/4/4
•Vol.1 No.1 p.560
Soil degradation threatens food security and environmental sustainability, yet future projections of it are rare. Using projections from 18 global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and land-use projections from the Land Use and Climate Across Scales Land ...
Environmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S44458-026-00064-4
ISSN:3059-4308
Elucidating the loose tie between precipitation and streamflow sensitivities to warming across the contiguous United States
Marc Prange•Ming Zhao•Elena Shevliakova•Sergey Malyshev
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3780
The relation of regional precipitation and streamflow sensitivities to warming is complicated by runoff often being the small residual in the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, the inhomogeneous nature of land-hydrological properties and hydrological interventions by ...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental impactHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41612-025-01257-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency
Miller Douglas E.•Gensini Vittorio A.•Barrett Bradford S.
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/5/12
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency i...
Atmospheric scienceStatistics
10.1038/S41612-022-00263-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Boosting weather forecast via generative superensemble
Congyi Nai•Xi Chen•Shangshang Yang•Ziniu Xiao•Baoxiang Pan
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/20
•Vol.8 No.1 p.3770
Accurate weather forecasting is essential for a broad range of socioeconomic activities. While data-driven approaches match numerical weather prediction accuracy with reduced computational cost, their deterministic nature overlooks uncertainties in initial state estimate, model systematic biases, an...
Atmospheric scienceMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-025-01255-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula
González-Herrero Sergi•Barriopedro David•Trigo Ricardo M.•López-Bustins Joan Albert•Oliva Marc
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/5/27
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
February 2020 was anomalously warm in the Antarctic Peninsula region and registered one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded in Western Antarctica. The event featured unprecedented regional mean temperature anomalies (+4.5 °C) over the Antarctic Peninsula between 6 and 11 February 2020 and th...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-022-00450-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Using UNSEEN trends to detect decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes
T. Kelder•M. Müller•L. J. Slater•T. I. Marjoribanks•R. L. Wilby等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2020
•2020/11/27
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-13
Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain return period estimates when there is non-stationary behaviour. To increase the historical record 100-fold, we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeEnvironmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S41612-020-00149-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hye-Ryeom Kim•Kyung-Ja Ha•Mathew Koll Roxy•Eui-Seok Chung•Bin Wang等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/14
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two per...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-025-02652-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Paleoclimate proxy records suggest reduced tropical Pacific zonal asymmetry under sustained global warming
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Keith B. Rodgers•Sang-Yoon Jun•Joo-Hong Kim等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Pronounced model-observation discrepancies in the changes of tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the satellite era imply systematic model deficiencies. However, the relatively short high-quality instrumental record hampers robustly determining the response of tropical Paci...
AttributionPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02039-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Föhn-induced melting over Larsen C modulated by atmospheric river shape, direction and landfall location
Xun Zou•Penny M. Rowe•Irina V. Gorodetskaya•Andrew Orr•David H. Bromwich等 15 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/4/3
0Recent decades have seen record-high temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) due to combined atmospheric rivers (ARs) and föhn warming. While ARs frequently enhance föhn, not all events cause surface warming over the entire Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS). Using high-resolution Polar WRF simulations,...
Atmospheric scienceCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-026-71359-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation
Nick Dunstone•Doug M. Smith•Steven C. Hardiman•Leon Hermanson•Sarah Ineson等 12 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/11/6
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and has a significant influence on regional European, North American and Asian summer climate. However, current dynamical seasonal prediction systems show no significant Summer North Atl...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-01063-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Small accessible urban parks mitigate heat-related mortality
Cheng He•Peng Yin•Renjie Chen•Li Wang•Yuan Wang等 8 人
Nature Health
2026
•2026/1/15
•Vol.1 No.1 p.129-137
Increasing evidence suggests that a city’s green space coverage can effectively regulate heatwave-related health risk, but the spatial pattern of green spaces has not received sufficient attention. Here we investigated how different green space configurations modify heatwave-related mortality risk a...
Environmental studiesRisk factors
10.1038/S44360-025-00036-3
ISSN:3005-0693
Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Clarke Hamish•Nolan Rachael H.•De Dios Victor Resco•Bradstock Ross•Griebel Anne等 7 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/22
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly an...
Climate-change impactsEnvironmental impactNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-022-34966-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover
Ying Chen•Jim Haywood•Yu Wang•Florent Malavelle•George Jordan等 13 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/4/11
•00 p.1-7
With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary a...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01427-Z
ISSN:1752-0894
Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty
O’Reilly Christopher H.•Befort Daniel J.•Weisheimer Antje•Woollings Tim•Ballinger Andrew等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/9/20
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-9
Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from seasonal to multidecadal timescales. However, the extratr...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingClimate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-021-00268-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Extracting paleoweather from paleoclimate through a deep learning reconstruction of Last Millennium atmospheric blocking
Christina Karamperidou
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/30
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-14
Projected changes in atmospheric blocking and associated extreme weather are marked by considerable uncertainties. While paleoclimate records could help reduce these uncertainties, their low temporal resolution makes extracting synoptic-scale signals challenging. Here, a deep learning model is devel...
Atmospheric dynamicsPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-024-01687-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Possible impacts of vegetation cover increment on the relationship between winter snow cover anomalies over the Third Pole and summer precipitation in East Asia
Kai Yang•Qi Qi•Chenghai Wang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/12
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP)–the Third Pole of the earth has been recognized as a reliable signal of summer floods or droughts in East Asia (EA). The distribution of snow cover can be influenced by vegetation, however, the impacts of changes in cover of non-growing season vegetation–with...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-023-00467-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Relative roles of different tropical oceans on the weakening of the stratospheric equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation
Yue Wang•Jian Rao•Chaim I. Garfinkel•Rongcai Ren•Scott M. Osprey等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/2/25
•Vol.9 No.1 p.830
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of tropical stratospheric variability that modulates global circulation and climate. Although a long-term weakening of QBO amplitude has been observed under global warming, the relative roles of different tropical oceans remain unclear. We pe...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01359-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate
Yue Chen•Yu Liang•Xianyao Chen•Haibo Bi
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/26
0Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01296-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Winter snow as a skillful indicator for spring wildfire in Northeast Asia
Meng Meng•Yunfei Lan•Daoyi Gong•Neng Luo•Ziyin Zhang等 7 人
Npj Natural Hazards
2025
•2025/8/6
•Vol.2 No.1 p.780
Wildfire in Northeastern Asia presents significant challenges to climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems. Here, we investigate the influence of preceding winter snow on spring wildfires in Northeastern Asia. Our results reveal soil moisture serves as a key mediator linking winter snow to spr...
ForestryProjection and prediction
10.1038/S44304-025-00118-Y
ISSN:2948-2100
Characteristics and mechanism of MBT anomaly of Karakum desert related with the Hindu Kush earthquake
Yifan Ding•Ziqing Wang•Yuan Qi•Wenfei Mao•Qiqi Zhang等 6 人
Npj Natural Hazards
2025
•2025/1/31
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-10
The Hindu Kush is seismically active zone locates to the southwest of Pamir Plateau. Earthquakes are frequent here, but very a few relevant studies on earthquake anomalies was found. We investigated the abnormal change of satellite microwave brightness temperature (MBT) related with the recent Mw 6....
Natural hazardsSeismology
10.1038/S44304-025-00060-Z
ISSN:2948-2100
Multi-decadal climate variability and satellite biases have amplified model-observation discrepancies in tropical troposphere warming estimates
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Byung-Ju Sohn•Young-Chan Noh•Viju O. John
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/6/21
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
Most coupled model simulations substantially overestimate tropical tropospheric warming trends over the satellite era, undermining the reliability of model-projected future climate change. Here we show that the model-observation discrepancy over the satellite era has arisen in large part from multi-...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-024-01510-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Compound flood hazard at Lake Como, Italy, is driven by temporal clustering of rainfall events
Banfi Fabiola•De Michele Carlo
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/8
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
Lake floods occur when the water level in the lake exceeds a threshold causing inundation of neighbouring shorelines. Despite the potential impacts of this type of flood on neighbouring settlements, the mechanisms and drivers that govern when lake floods occur, and particularly how they result from ...
HydrologyLimnologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-022-00557-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Surface-to-space atmospheric waves from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption
Wright Corwin J.•Hindley Neil P.•Alexander M. Joan•Barlow Mathew•Hoffmann Lars等 14 人
Nature
2022
•2022/6/30
•Vol.609 No.7928 p.741-746
The January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption was one of the most explosive volcanic events of the modern era1,2, producing a vertical plume that peaked more than 50 km above the Earth3. The initial explosion and subsequent plume triggered atmospheric waves that propagated around the world mul...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-022-05012-5
ISSN:0028-0836
Widespread brightening of the underwater light environment across China’s lakes
Yuan He•R. Iestyn Woolway•Kun Shi•Xiaofan Yang
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/9
0Lakes across China are increasingly shaped by climate change and human activities, yet how these pressures have altered the underwater light environment remains poorly quantified. Here we combine in situ measurements, satellite observations and deep learning models to quantify long-term changes in u...
Environmental impactLimnology
10.1038/S43247-026-03476-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Signature of the western boundary currents in local climate variability
James G. Larson•David W. J. Thompson•James W. Hurrell
Nature
2024
•2024/10/2
•00 p.1-6
The western boundary currents are characterized by narrow, intense ocean jets and are among the most energetic phenomena in the world ocean. The importance of the western boundary currents to the mean climate is well established: they transport vast quantities of heat from the subtropics to the midl...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41586-024-08019-2
ISSN:0028-0836
Atmospheric-river-induced foehn events drain glaciers on Novaya Zemlya
J. Haacker•B. Wouters•X. Fettweis•I. A. Glissenaar•J. E. Box
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/15
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Recently, climate extremes have been grabbing attention as important drivers of environmental change. Here, we assemble an observational inventory of energy and mass fluxes to quantify the ice loss from glaciers on the Russian High Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya. Satellite altimetry reveals tha...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-024-51404-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Projecting the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders associated with increasing humid heat in Shanghai
Chen Liang•Jiacan Yuan•Renhe Zhang•Xu Tang•Gunter Schumann
Nature Mental Health
2025
•2025/12/2
•00 p.1-13
Residents of low-latitude megacities face growing vulnerability to humid-heat stress under urbanization and global warming, yet limited research has assessed the morbidity burden of mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) linked to humid-heat exposures in these cities. Here we quantify the hospital a...
Astronomy and planetary scienceRisk factors
10.1038/S44220-025-00519-Y
ISSN:2731-6076
Asynchronous abrupt warming across Eurasia since the 1980s
Yansong Li•Weili Duan•Zhenzhong Zeng•Shan Zou•Xu Wang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/9/25
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature change is crucial for addressing global warming, particularly as regional climate systems may have passed critical tipping points. Here, we examine temperature change characteristics and influencing factors across the Eurasia from 1901 to 2022...
Climate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01209-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900
Latif Mojib•Sun Jing•Visbeck Martin•Hadi Bordbar M.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/4/25
•00 p.1-6
There is debate about slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component of the global climate system. Some focus is on the sea surface temperature (SST) slightly cooling in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic despite widespread ocean warming. Atlantic SST is influen...
Climate-change impactsPhysical oceanographyStatistics
10.1038/S41558-022-01342-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
Baosheng Li•Lei Zhou•Jianhuang Qin•Tianjun Zhou•Dake Chen等 7 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/11/22
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-7
The edge of a monsoon region is usually highly sensitive to climate change. Pakistan, which is located on the northern edge of the Indian monsoon, is highly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and has witnessed several debilitating floods exacerbated by global warming in recent years. However, the mechanis...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41467-023-43463-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Seasonal regimes of warm Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion toward Antarctic ice shelves
Joshua Lanham•Matthew Mazloff•Alberto C. Naveira Garabato•Martin Siegert•Ali Mashayek
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/3/1
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-15
Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is primarily driven by heat delivery from warm Circumpolar Deep Water. Here we classify near-shelf water masses in an eddy-resolving numerical model of the Southern Ocean to develop a unified view of warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf. We...
Climate and Earth system modellingCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-025-02091-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets
Gavin D. Madakumbura•Chad W. Thackeray•Jesse Norris•Naomi Goldenson•Alex Hall
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/7/6
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
The intensification of extreme precipitation under anthropogenic forcing is robustly projected by global climate models, but highly challenging to detect in the observational record. Large internal variability distorts this anthropogenic signal. Models produce diverse magnitudes of precipitation res...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-021-24262-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific
Jacob L. Gunnarson•Malte F. Stuecker•Sen Zhao
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/11
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Under anthropogenic warming, future changes to climate variability beyond specific modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have not been well-characterized. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model, the future change to sea surface temperatu...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00702-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Neural general circulation models for weather and climate
Dmitrii Kochkov•Janni Yuval•Ian Langmore•Peter Norgaard•Jamie Smith等 16 人
Nature
2024
•2024/7/22
•00 p.1-7
General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction1,2. GCMs are physics-based simulators that combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine-learning models traine...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingComputational science
10.1038/S41586-024-07744-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Climate change shifts the North Pacific storm track polewards
Rei Chemke•Janni Yuval
Nature
2026
•2026/1/7
•Vol.649 No.8097 p.626-630
Across the North Pacific Ocean, the mid-latitude storm track accounts for most of the heat and moisture transport into the Arctic and western North America, considerably influencing regional precipitation and temperature patterns1,2. By the end of this century, the winter North Pacific storm track i...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41586-025-09895-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Global acceleration of compound flood risks through fluvial-tidal interactions in a warming climate
Weitian Chen•Yue Zheng•Yongchao Zhou•Tuqiao Zhang•Yiping Zhang等 10 人
Npj Natural Hazards
2026
•2026/2/10
•Vol.3 No.1 p.130
Accelerating global sea-level rise (SLR) is fundamentally restructuring coastal flood regimes, particularly in complex estuarine systems where fluvial-tidal interactions govern hydrological extremes. In this study, we reveal a significant increasing trend in compound flooding probability across 20 s...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S44304-026-00179-7
ISSN:2948-2100
Frequent floods in the Yangtze River basin linked to a shifted Indian Ocean wave regime
Panini Dasgupta•SungHyun Nam•Michael J. McPhaden•Dong-Jin Kang•J. S. Saranya等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/26
0Six major summer monsoon floods occurred in the Yangtze Basin during 1992–2024 compared to only one during 1960–1991. This significant increase in hydroclimatic extremes, which affected millions of people, is closely linked to a 50% enhancement in quasi-biennial variability in East Asian summer mons...
Physical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-026-70940-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Influence of winter Saharan dust on equatorial Atlantic variability
Ignasi Vallès-Casanova•Ori Adam•Marta Martín Rey
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
While Saharan dust’s influence on sea surface temperature variability in the tropical North Atlantic is well-documented, its effects on the equatorial region remain underexplored. This relationship is particularly important due to the strong influence of equatorial Atlantic variability on both ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01926-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Flash droughts threaten global managed forests
Jianzhuang Pang•Hang Xu•Yang Xu•Yifan Zhang•Xiaoyun Wu等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/10
•Vol.16 No.1 p.110270
Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and increasing frequency, pose significant threats to ecosystem stability and function. However, there remains no global consensus regarding forest responses to flash droughts. Here, using a reconstructed global high spatiotemporal resolution Standardized...
Environmental impactNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-66021-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints
Abatzoglou John T.•Battisti David S.•Williams A. Park•Hansen Winslow D.•Harvey Brian J.等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/11/2
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-8
Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing fore...
Climate changeFire ecology
10.1038/S43247-021-00299-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Contribution of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions to changes in summer upper-tropospheric thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific
Peilin Li•Botao Zhou•Dapeng Zhang•Wenxin Xie•Zhicong Yin等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-10
Change of zonal thermal contrast in the upper troposphere (ZTUT) between Asia and the North Pacific is a highly concerned issue, as it profoundly influences the Northern hemispheric climate. However, the physical reasons, particularly the anthropogenic influences on the ZTUT change are not well unde...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00865-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Arctic glaciers record wavier circumpolar winds
Sasgen Ingo•Salles Annette•Wegmann Martin•Wouters Bert•Fettweis Xavier等 7 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/2/10
•00 p.1-7
Glaciers in the Arctic respond sensitively to climate change, recording the polar amplification of global warming with increasing mass loss. Here, we use glacier mass balances in Svalbard and northern Arctic Canada to categorize tropospheric variability and the associated summer circulation over the...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-021-01275-4
ISSN:1758-678X
Empirical estimate of forestation-induced precipitation changes in Europe
Ronny Meier•Jonas Schwaab•Sonia I. Seneviratne•Michael Sprenger•Elizabeth Lewis等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2021
•2021/7/5
•00 p.1-6
Land-cover changes can affect the climate by altering the water and energy balance of the land surface. Numerous modelling studies have indicated that alterations at the land surface can result in considerable changes in precipitation. Yet land-cover-induced precipitation changes remain largely unco...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41561-021-00773-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Obstructive sleep apnea severity varies by season and environmental influences such as ambient temperature
Bastien Lechat•Duc Phuc Nguyen•Kelly Sansom•Lucia Pinilla•Hannah Scott等 13 人
Communications Medicine
2025
•2025/7/29
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity often varies considerably from night-to-night, but whether environmental factors play a role is unclear. This study investigated seasonal and temperature-related changes in OSA severity. Data were acquired from 70,052 participants with an average apnea-hypopnea...
EpidemiologyPopulation screeningRespiratory tract diseases
10.1038/S43856-025-01016-0
ISSN:2730-664X
Global water availability boosted by vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric moisture transport
Cui Jiangpeng•Lian Xu•Huntingford Chris•Gimeno Luis•Wang Tao等 11 人
Nature Geoscience
2022
•2022/10/31
•Vol.15 No.12 p.982-988
Surface-water availability, defined as precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be affected by changes in vegetation. These impacts can be local, due to the modification of evapotranspiration and precipitation, or non-local, due to changes in atmospheric moisture transport. However, the teleconne...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeClimate sciencesEnvironmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S41561-022-01061-7
ISSN:1752-0894
Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest
Karen A. McKinnon•Andrew Poppick•Isla R. Simpson
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/6/17
•00 p.1-7
The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific humidity; however, it remains unclear how humidity extremes may change, especially in climatologically dry (low-humidity) regions. He...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41558-021-01076-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Interannual oxygen isotope variability in Indian summer monsoon precipitation reflects changes in moisture sources
Gayatri Kathayat•Ashish Sinha•Masahiro Tanoue•Kei Yoshimura•Hanying Li等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/5/20
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-10
The primary influences on the spatio-temporal variability of oxygen isotope compositions in precipitation over the Indian summer monsoon domain are inadequately constrained by the limited observational record. Consequently, the climatic significance of isotopic signatures of precipitation preserved ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-021-00165-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
A global survey of stratospheric gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones
Xu Wang•Yuan Wang•Lifeng Zhang•Yun Zhang•Jiping Guan
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/23
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The stratospheric gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones (TC-SGWs) are useful for the monitoring of tropical cyclones (TCs) and are also important for the gravity-wave parameterization in numerical models, as they represent a distinct type of gravity waves. Previous studies on TC-SGWs have not...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01172-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Boreal forest cover change since 2000 contributes to cold winters in Eurasia
Lei Cai•Ji Ma•Yaoyin Zhang•Wenwen Shi•Ruowen Yang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/10/6
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
The impacts of boreal Forest Cover Change (FCC) during winter are somewhat neglected due to a lack of evapotranspiration and solar radiation. This study incorporates the observed FCC into the Earth System Model, and the ensemble simulations agree on a significant winter cooling over Eurasia with a l...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-025-01219-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Historical model biases in monthly high temperature anomalies indicate under-estimation of future temperature extremes
Lei Duan•Lyssa M. Freese•Govindasamy Bala•Ken Caldeira
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Both the mean climate state and anomalies from the mean determine the impact of extreme events, yet how models represent the latter is largely unexplored. Here, we assess skill of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for predicting monthly high te...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02579-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Rapid increase in spring ozone in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2022
Tianhui Cao•Haichao Wang•Xiaorui Chen•Lei Li•Xiao Lu等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Surface ozone pollution is a severe air pollution problem and typically occurs in the warm season since it is driven by photochemistry. Recent studies showed a tendency for ozone pollution to spread into the cold season. Yet, less attention was paid to its evolution and causes. Here, we show general...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00847-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
Wei Wang•T. C. Chakraborty•Wei Xiao•Xuhui Lee
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/4/9
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-9
Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we fi...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate changeClimate-change impactsClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-021-22406-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Continuous increase in evaporative demand shortened the growing season of European ecosystems in the last decade
Mehdi Rahmati•Alexander Graf•Christian Poppe Terán•Wulf Amelung•Wouter Dorigo等 12 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/7/3
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Despite previous reports on European growing seasons lengthening due to global warming, evidence shows that this trend has been reversing in the past decade due to increased transpiration needs. To asses this, we used an innovative method along with space-based observations to determine the tim...
Climate-change ecologyEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-023-00890-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Sea Ice Loss leads to regime shifts in the arctic biological pump
Ming Wu•Yuhan Hu•Chengfeng Le•Fanyu Lin•Tingyu Gu等 18 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/11/24
•Vol.16 No.1 p.103310
The Arctic Ocean has undergone accelerated warming and a marked decline in sea ice over recent decades. Yet, the response of the biological pump—a critical mechanism for atmospheric carbon sequestration—remains poorly understood. Here, we develop a satellite-derived dataset (2003–2022) to identify a...
Carbon cycleMarine biology
10.1038/S41467-025-65285-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river
Irina V. Gorodetskaya•Claudio Durán-Alarcón•Sergi González-Herrero•Kyle R. Clem•Xun Zou等 25 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/12/4
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-18
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) experienced a new extreme warm event and record-high surface melt in February 2022, rivaling the recent temperature records from 2015 and 2020, and contributing to the alarming series of extreme warm events over this region showing stronger warming compared to the rest o...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric scienceEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-023-00529-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation
Chemke Rei•Yuval Janni
Nature
2023
•2023/4/17
•00 p.1-4
By accounting for most of the poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport in the tropics, the Hadley circulation largely affects the latitudinal patterns of precipitation and temperature at low latitudes. To increase our preparednesses for human-induced climate change, it is thus critical to ac...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41586-023-05903-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Orihuela-Pinto Bryam•England Matthew H.•Taschetto Andréa S.
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/6/6
•Vol.12 No.6 p.558-565
Climate projections suggest a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under global warming, with evidence that a slowdown is already underway. This could have significant ramifications for Atlantic Ocean heat transport, Arctic sea ice extent and regional North...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41558-022-01380-Y
ISSN:1758-678X
The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan
Moetasim Ashfaq•Nathaniel Johnson•Fred Kucharski•Noah S. Diffenbaugh•Muhammad Adnan Abid等 12 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/9/21
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-14
The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-023-00462-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Drought risks are projected to increase in the future in central and southern regions of the Middle East
Younes Khosravi•Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/5/16
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-18
Drought prediction is vital for sustaining water security in regions highly exposed to climate change. Here we present a machine learning-based method that integrates climate model outputs to improve drought monitoring in the Middle East. We introduce a spatially adaptive index called the Geographic...
Climate and Earth system modellingNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02359-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Positive correlation between wet-day frequency and intensity linked to universal precipitation drivers
McErlich Cameron•McDonald Adrian•Schuddeboom Alex•Vishwanathan Gokul•Renwick James等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2023
•2023/5/1
•00 p.1-6
Understanding precipitation is essential for quantifying weather and climate-related risks. Changes in precipitation climatology are typically based on independent analysis of precipitation frequency and intensity. Here we show that where it rains more often, it also rains harder. When grouping glob...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41561-023-01177-4
ISSN:1752-0894
Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems
Matthew F. Horan•Fred Kucharski•Nathaniel Johnson•Moetasim Ashfaq
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/26
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not w...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00594-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Network science disentangles internal climate variability in global spatial dependence structures
Arnob Ray•Abhirup Banerjee•Rachindra Mawalagedara•Auroop R. Ganguly
Npj Complexity
2025
•2025/8/4
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-9
A comprehensive characterization of internal climate variability (ICV) in initial-condition (IC) large ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) remains a significant challenge in climate science. In this study, we leverage the spatial connectivity structures of temperature networks to characterize IC...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate changeClimate sciencesProjection and prediction
10.1038/S44260-025-00048-W
ISSN:2731-8753
An 85-year record of glacier change and refined projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska
Albin Wells•Brandon S. Tober•Sarah F. Child•David R. Rounce•Michael G. Loso等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/22
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Long-term historical records of glacier mass change are key to advancing understanding of glaciers’ response to climate change and improving predictions of their future. Here, we use historical aerial photographs and new bed topography measurements to provide an 85-year record of glacier change on K...
Cryospheric scienceProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-62962-W
ISSN:2041-1723
How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster
Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem•Ahad Hasan Tanim•Audrika Nahian•Sadik Khan•Erfan Goharian等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/5/6
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satel...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-59261-9
ISSN:2041-1723
A spectral test of the butterfly effect and physical consistency in the diffusion-based GenCast’s ensembles
Hisu Kim•Jihun Ryu•Seok-Woo Son•Jee-Hoon Jeong•Hyungjun Kim等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/18
0With the rapid development of deep learning weather prediction (DLWP) models like GenCast, rigorous evaluation of their physical consistency is essential. This study investigates the dynamical fidelity of GenCast against ECMWF IFS-HRES and IFS-ENS using comprehensive kinetic energy (KE) and differen...
Climate sciencesPhysics
10.1038/S41612-026-01380-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Fusion of multi-source precipitation records via coordinate-based generative models
Sencan Sun•Congyi Nai•Baoxiang Pan•Wentao Li•Lu Li等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/29
0Precipitation remains one of the most challenging climate variables to observe and predict. Existing datasets face intricate trade-offs: gauges are relatively trustworthy but sparse, satellites provide near-global coverage with retrieval uncertainties, and numerical models offer physical consistency...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41467-025-67987-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world
Shiyi Zhang•Qinghong Zhang•John T. Allen•Xiangyu Lin
Nature
2026
•2026/5/27
•Vol.653 No.8116 p.1069-1077
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1–4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale change...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-026-10543-2
ISSN:0028-0836
The precipitation distribution set by eddy fluxes: the case of boreal winter
Yoo Changhyun•Lee Sukyoung
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/3/25
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The latitudinal precipitation distribution shows a secondary peak in midlatitudes and a minimum in the subtropics. This minimum is widely attributed to the descending branch of the Eulerian Hadley cell. This study however shows that the precipitation distribution aligns more closely with the transfo...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00356-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Global warming may increase the burden of obstructive sleep apnea
Bastien Lechat•Jack Manners•Lucía Pinilla•Amy C. Reynolds•Hannah Scott等 15 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/6/16
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
High ambient temperatures are associated with reduced sleep duration and quality, but effects on obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity are unknown. Here we quantify the effect of 24 h ambient temperature on nightly OSA severity in 116,620 users of a Food and Drug Administration-cleared nearable ove...
Environmental healthEpidemiologySleep disorders
10.1038/S41467-025-60218-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Recent two decades witness an uptick in monsoon depressions over the northern Arabian Sea
Nagaraju Chilukoti•Mahendra Nimmakanti•Jasti S. Chowdary
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/8/9
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
The analysis reveals that the occurrence of summer Monsoon Depressions (MDs) over the North Arabian Sea is doubling during 2001–2022 compared to the 1981–2000 period. This increase stems from changes in the region’s dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. The heightened genesis potential parameter wit...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00727-W
ISSN:2397-3722
The impact of warming Tibetan Plateau on the 2020 summer unprecedented Northeastern Pacific Marine heatwave
Xuefeng Han•Ping Zhao•Jiaxin Ye•Jiao Li
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/11
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
An unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) struck the extratropical Northeastern Pacific during the summer of 2020. This study reveals that this event is characterized by a persistent atmospheric high-pressure anomaly in the MHW region, which leads to a decreased cloud cover, an increased surface shortw...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00979-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Trends in vertical wind velocity variability reveal cloud microphysical feedback
Donifan Barahona•Katherine H. Breen•Derek Ngo•Flor Vanessa Maciel•Ryan Patnaude等 6 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/12/22
0By controlling supersaturation vertical air motion influences how aerosols activate into cloud droplets and ice crystals. This effect is difficult to represent accurately in atmospheric models as they cannot typically resolve the sub-kilometer scale component of wind motion, however it can be addres...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-025-67541-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors
Rebecca C. Scholten•Sander Veraverbeke•Yang Chen•James T. Randerson
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/9/2
•00 p.1-8
Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anth...
BiogeochemistryBoreal ecologyEnvironmental impactFire ecologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41561-024-01505-2
ISSN:1752-0894
Stronger zonal convective clustering associated with a wider tropical rain belt
Max Popp•Sandrine Bony
Nature Communications
2019
•2019/9/19
•Vol.10 No.1 p.1-12
Deep convection can exhibit a large diversity of spatial organizations along the equator. The form of organization may affect the tropical large-scale motions of the atmosphere, but observational evidence is currently missing. Here we show using observations that when convection along the equator is...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingClimate change
10.1038/S41467-019-12167-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Soil moisture–atmosphere feedback dominates land carbon uptake variability
Vincent Humphrey•Alexis Berg•Philippe Ciais•Pierre Gentine•Martin Jung等 8 人
Nature
2021
•2021/3/31
•Vol.592 No.7852 p.65-69
Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems have an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and water availability can explain these variations at the global scale2–5. Here we use factorial climate ...
Atmospheric dynamicsCarbon cycleClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41586-021-03325-5
ISSN:0028-0836
Atmospheric convection, dynamics and topography shape the scaling pattern of hourly rainfall extremes with temperature globally
Yiannis Moustakis•Christian J. Onof•Athanasios Paschalis
Communications Earth & Environment
2020
•2020/8/31
•Vol.1 No.1 p.1-9
Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change as ground temperature rises with a rate similar to the air’s water holding capacity ~7%/K (Clausius-Clapeyron). Recent studies have been inconclusive on the robustness and global consistency of this behavior. Here, we use hourly w...
Climate changeHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-020-0003-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Impact attribution of the March 2022 Antarctic heatwave reveals amplification by cloud feedbacks and increased future meltwater
Sergi González-Herrero•Pranab Deb•Sihan Li•Daniel Argüeso•Rainette Engbers等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/16
0Antarctic heatwaves driven by atmospheric rivers are emerging as high-impact extremes, yet the role of climate change in amplifying such events remains uncertain. Here we investigate the climate change contribution to the March 2022 East Antarctic heatwave using pseudo-global warming experiments wit...
AttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-026-03485-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets
Dylan Hogan•Wolfram Schlenker
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/5/31
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally ...
Climate-change impactsEnvironmental economicsSocioeconomic scenarios
10.1038/S41467-024-48388-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Stratospheric biomass burning aerosols compensate record-breaking ozone depletion over the Arctic in spring 2020
Qirui Zhong•Sander Veraverbeke•Pengfei Yu•Jianmin Ma•Shu Tao
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/17
•Vol.17 No.1 p.19930
Biomass burning aerosols reaching the stratosphere (SBBA) present an emerging yet understudied threat to Arctic ozone (O3). Previous work focuses primarily on SBBA-induced heterogeneous chemistry, while their dynamical effects–altering temperature and circulation–have received less attention. Here, ...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-69728-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Limited capability of current satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence reconstructions to capture stomatal responses to environmental stresses
Jiacheng Zhao•Athanasios Paschalis•Pierre Gentine•Zhaozhong Feng•Simone Fatichi
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/12/9
0Quantification of the impact of environmental stress on terrestrial vegetation photosynthesis is crucial for our understanding of the global carbon cycle, particularly under a changing climate. Vegetation responses to environmental stress manifest first as plant physiological changes, and at later s...
DroughtEcology
10.1038/S43247-025-03035-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol
Manshausen Peter•Watson-Parris Duncan•Christensen Matthew W.•Jalkanen Jukka-Pekka•Stier Philip
Nature
2022
•2022/10/5
•Vol.610 No.7930 p.101-106
Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses1. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction2, but these changes are subjec...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41586-022-05122-0
ISSN:0028-0836
Manifold increase in the spatial extent of heatwaves in the terrestrial Arctic
Mika Rantanen•Matti Kämäräinen•Miska Luoto•Juha Aalto
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/8
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
It is widely acknowledged that the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing worldwide, including the Arctic. However, less attention has been paid to the land area affected by heatwaves. Here, using atmospheric reanalysis and global climate models, we show that the area covered ...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental impactProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01750-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Seasonality of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic
Yao Fu•M. Susan Lozier•Tiago Carrilho Biló•Amy S. Bower•Stuart A. Cunningham等 26 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/25
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-13
Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows u...
Ocean sciencesPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-023-00848-9
ISSN:2662-4435
ACE2: accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responses
Oliver Watt-Meyer•Brian Henn•Jeremy McGibbon•Spencer K. Clark•Anna Kwa等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/5/29
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atm...
Atmospheric scienceMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-025-01090-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Global ecosystem responses to flash droughts are modulated by background climate and vegetation conditions
Sungmin O•Seon Ki Park
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/2/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-7
Flash droughts and their physical processes have received increasing attention in recent years due to concerns about the potential of flash droughts to affect water resources and ecosystems. Yet to date, the response of ecosystems during flash drought events, particularly on a large scale, and the d...
Ecosystem ecologyEnvironmental sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S43247-024-01247-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Shrinking cold wakes accelerate tropical cyclone intensification in recent decades
Yufeng Zhou•Kaiyue Shan•Yanluan Lin
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/27
0Tropical cyclones (TCs) have intensified more rapidly in recent decades, with both the frequency and magnitude of rapid intensification (RI) events increasing. While rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely recognized as the primary driver behind the intensification trend, the contribution ...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01300-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Yating Chen•Aobo Liu•John C. Moore
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/5/15
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-10
The Arctic is warming far faster than the global average, threatening the release of large amounts of carbon presently stored in frozen permafrost soils. Increasing Earth’s albedo by the injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way of offsetting some of the adverse ...
Climate-change mitigationCryospheric science
10.1038/S41467-020-16357-8
ISSN:2041-1723
Observed changes in the climate and snow dynamics of the Third Pole
Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath•Vikas Kumar Patel•Babu Ram Sharma
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
The Third Pole (TP) is the world’s largest highland and has one of the biggest reservoirs of glacier ice mass and snow cover on the Earth. Three major Asian rivers (the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra) are nourished by the melting of glaciers and snow in Central Himalaya, which are inevitable for the s...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41612-024-00710-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence
Christian Jordan I.•Basara Jeffrey B.•Hunt Eric D.•Otkin Jason A.•Furtado Jason C.等 8 人
Nature Communications
2021
•2021/11/3
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-11
Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and the human environment. Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental understanding of flash drought occurrence. This study identifies global hotspots for fla...
AgricultureEnvironmental impactHydrology
10.1038/S41467-021-26692-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries
Wang Pin•Asare Ernest•Pitzer Virginia E.•Dubrow Robert•Chen Kai
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/6/30
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Climate change is projected to intensify drought conditions, which may increase the risk of diarrheal diseases in children. We constructed log-binomial generalized linear mixed models to examine the association between diarrhea risk, ascertained from global-scale nationally representative Demographi...
Climate-change impactsDiarrhoeaEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-022-31291-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Radiative effects of precipitation on the global energy budget and Arctic amplification
Takuro Michibata
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/6/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Radiative forcing is an essential metric for accurate climate prediction. Clouds are a well-known source of uncertainty, but the radiative effects of precipitation (REP) are poorly understood and excluded from most general circulation models (GCMs). This is because conventional GCMs treat precipitat...
Atmospheric scienceCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-024-00684-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Local damages drive network-wide costs in compound flood-prone coastal city
Raviraj Dave•Sushobhan Sen•Avijit Maji•Udit Bhatia
Npj Urban Sustainability
2025
•2025/11/27
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1020
Concurrency of extreme rainfall, river surges, and elevated tides can produce compound floods that single- or multi-hazard summation models frequently misrepresent flood extent and depth-particularly in the Global South, where rapid urban expansion intensifies infrastructure stress. Here, we show th...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S42949-025-00288-8
ISSN:2661-8001
Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming
Yuanlin Qiu•Jie Chen•Deliang Chen•Wim Thiery•Daniel Mercado-Bettín等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/27
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
Lakes play a crucial role in shaping both local and regional climates through heat exchange with the atmosphere. Amid global climate change, these interactions have undergone significant shifts. However, our understanding of the global heat release from lakes to the atmosphere, and its future trajec...
Climate-change impactsHydrologyLimnology
10.1038/S41467-025-59291-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Escalating tropical cyclone precipitation extremes and landslide hazards in South China under Global Warming
Xiaoming Shi•Yang Liu•Jianan Chen•Haoming Chen•Yueya Wang等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/5/21
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to produce more intense precipitation under global warming. However, substantial uncertainties exist in the projection of coarse-resolution global climate models. Here, we use deep learning to aid targeted cloud-resolving simulations of extreme TCs. Contrary to t...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00654-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Increasing global heatwave occurrence associated with land-atmosphere interactions
Pengshuai Bi•Xiao Chen•Zhihua Pan•Na Huang•Riping Gao等 12 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/2/27
•Vol.9 No.1 p.890
Marked increases in heatwave frequency and intensity under global warming threaten ecosystems and societies. While large-scale atmospheric circulation has been considered the dominant influence, the role of land-atmosphere coupling remains unclear. Using ERA5 reanalysis data (1980–2022), we analyze ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01356-1
ISSN:2397-3722
South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower
Yang Junhua•Kang Shichang•Chen Deliang•Zhao Lin•Ji Zhenming等 13 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/11/30
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-11
Long-range transport of black carbon from South Asia to the Tibetan plateau and its deposition on glaciers directly enhances glacier melt. Here we find South Asian black carbon also has an indirect effect on the plateau’s glaciers shrinkage by acting to reduce the water supply over the southern Tibe...
Cryospheric scienceEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41467-022-35128-1
ISSN:2041-1723
A global early warning system for predicting exposure of biodiversity to extreme heat
Josep M. Serra-Diaz•Lauren C. Andrews•Andreas Schwarz Meyer•Ben S. Carlson•Brian Maitner等 11 人
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/6/8
•00 p.1-8
Effective biodiversity conservation during periods of rapid environmental change requires identifying the species and regions at greatest risk. However, most predictions focus on biodiversity shifts several decades ahead, offering limited guidance for immediate conservation action. Here we develop a...
BiodiversityClimate-change ecologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-026-02642-9
ISSN:1758-678X
Regional cooling potential from expansion of perennial grasses in Europe
Xia Zhang•Bo Huang•Nariê Rinke Dias de Souza•Xiangping Hu•Francesco Cherubini
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-16
Perennial grasses are an option to mitigate global warming, increase energy security, and alleviate environmental pressures within agricultural landscapes. Their cultivation alters near-surface temperature in ways that are still largely unclear. Here, a regional climate model with an enhanced repres...
Climate changeEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-024-01923-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Global coupled dynamics of tropical easterly waves and tropical cyclone genesis
Xueqing Du•Jung-Eun Chu•Fei-Fei Jin•Hung Ming Cheung
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/28
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are westward-moving waves often within trade winds but occur ubiquitously in the tropics and play a significant role in the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs). They are well-known as primary precursors of TCs in the Atlantic, yet their global relationship with TCs has ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01014-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Weak anvil cloud area feedback suggested by physical and observational constraints
Brett McKim•Sandrine Bony•Jean-Louis Dufresne
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/4/1
•00 p.1-6
Changes in anvil clouds with warming remain a leading source of uncertainty in estimating Earth’s climate sensitivity. Here we develop a feedback analysis that decomposes changes in anvil clouds and creates testable hypotheses for refining their proposed uncertainty ranges with observations and theo...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01414-4
ISSN:1752-0894
Footprints of El Niño La Niña on the evolution of particulate matter over subtropical Island Taiwan
Yen-Ta Fu•Ming-Cheng Yen•Neng-Huei Lin•Hai Bui-Manh•Cheng-Chih Lin等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/5/26
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Particulate matter (PM) pollution has become a major problem worldwide, with significant adverse health impacts, but the climatology of annual variations in and the effect of climate change on PM levels are still not comprehensively evaluated. Here we show that the vertical motions of the East Asian...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric dynamicsAttributionEnvironmental monitoring
10.1038/S41612-023-00383-6
ISSN:2397-3722
Global high-resolution total water storage anomalies from self-supervised data assimilation using deep learning algorithms
Junyang Gou•Benedikt Soja
Nature Water
2024
•2024/2/12
•00 p.1-12
Total water storage anomalies (TWSAs) describe the variations of the terrestrial water cycle, which is essential for understanding our climate system. This study proposes a self-supervised data assimilation model with a new loss function to provide global TWSAs with a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The...
HydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S44221-024-00194-W
ISSN:2731-6084
A global survey of diurnal offshore propagation of rainfall
Fang Junying•Du Yu
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/12/2
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Diurnal rainfall offshore propagation (OP) shapes the timing and intensity of coastal rainfall and thus impacts both nature and society. Previous OP studies have rarely compared various coasts, and a consensus regarding physical mechanisms has not been reached on a global scale. Here, we provide the...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-022-34842-0
ISSN:2041-1723
Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity
Eui-Seok Chung•Seong-Joong Kim•Sang-Ki Lee•Kyung-Ja Ha•Sang-Wook Yeh等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, by con...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41612-024-00713-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Global heat stress intensification and its expanding footprint on the human population
Rebecca Emerton•Julien Nicolas•Anna Lombardi•Claudia Di Napoli
Nature Climate Change
2026
•2026/6/22
•00 p.1-8
Climate warming is driving more frequent and intense heat extremes. Yet, changes in heat stress, the leading cause of weather-related mortality, remain poorly quantified at the global scale. Here, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index, we assess heat stress globally since 1950, examining daytime...
Environmental healthEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41558-026-02670-5
ISSN:1758-678X
Land surface information from satellites boost near-surface temperature forecast skill
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez•Sungmin O•Alexander Brenning•Markus Reichstein•Gianpaolo Balsamo等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/2/18
•Vol.7 No.1 p.2450
Earth observations from satellites are the primary information source for Numerical Weather Prediction models. While some land surface variables, such as surface soil moisture, are assimilated to improve initial land conditions, the use of additional satellite-derived land surface and vegetation pro...
Atmospheric dynamicsBiogeochemistryEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43247-026-03298-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Global spatio-temporal ERA5 precipitation downscaling to km and sub-hourly scale using generative AI
Luca Glawion•Julius Polz•Harald Kunstmann•Benjamin Fersch•Christian Chwala
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/6/15
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-13
The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation significantly impacts human lives. While reanalysis datasets provide consistent long-term global precipitation information that allows investigations of rainfall-driven hazards like larger-scale flooding, they lack the resolution to capture the ...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41612-025-01103-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors
Larry Di Girolamo•Guangyu Zhao•Gan Zhang•Zhuo Wang•Jesse Loveridge等 6 人
Nature
2025
•2025/7/9
•00 p.1-5
Changing atmospheric circulations shift global weather patterns and their extremes, profoundly affecting human societies and ecosystems. Studies using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data1–9 indicate diverse circulation changes in recent decades but show discrepancies in magnitude and even ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41586-025-09242-1
ISSN:0028-0836
Human interventions have enhanced the net ecosystem productivity of farmland in China
Sun Zhang•Wei Chen•Yanan Wang•Qiao Li•Haimeng Shi等 9 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/12/3
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
Human interventions, such as farmland management, have long been considered crucial for soil carbon sequestration, but little is known about the exact impact of these interventions on the net carbon flux, represented by net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Here, using multiple long-term, large-scale da...
Climate-change mitigationClimate sciencesEcology
10.1038/S41467-024-54907-6
ISSN:2041-1723
The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene
Vecchia P. Ravinandrasana•Christian L. E. Franzke
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/9/23
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-18
Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of dro...
Environmental healthHydrology
10.1038/S41467-025-63784-6
ISSN:2041-1723
Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall
Hannah Bailey•Alun Hubbard•Eric S. Klein•Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen•Pete D. Akers等 7 人
Nature Geoscience
2021
•2021/4/1
•00 p.1-6
The loss of Arctic sea-ice has been implicated with severe cold and snowy mid-latitude winters. However, the mechanisms and a direct link remain elusive due to limited observational evidence. Here we present atmospheric water vapour isotope measurements from Arctic Finland during ‘the Beast from the...
Atmospheric chemistryAtmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate-change impactsCryospheric science
10.1038/S41561-021-00719-Y
ISSN:1752-0894
Novel temperatures are already widespread beneath the world’s tropical forest canopies
Brittany T. Trew•David P. Edwards•Alexander C. Lees•David H. Klinges•Regan Early等 19 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/6/3
•00 p.1-7
Tropical forest biodiversity is potentially at high risk from climate change, but most species reside within or below the canopy, where they are buffered from extreme temperatures. Here, by modelling the hourly below-canopy climate conditions of 300,000 tropical forest locations globally between 199...
Environmental healthEnvironmental impactTropical ecology
10.1038/S41558-024-02031-0
ISSN:1758-678X
The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
Thompson Vikki•Mitchell Dann•Hegerl Gabriele C.•Collins Matthew•Leach Nicholas J.等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/4/25
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-8
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation to extreme weather events often occurs in response to an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using extreme value statistics, here we show where ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate-change impactsNatural hazardsStatistics
10.1038/S41467-023-37554-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers
W. W. Immerzeel•A. F. Lutz•M. Andrade•A. Bahl•H. Biemans等 32 人
Nature
2019
•2019/12/9
•Vol.577 No.7790 p.364-369
Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water ...
Climate sciencesHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41586-019-1822-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Coastal urbanization may indirectly positively impact growth of mangrove forests
Shan Wei•Hongsheng Zhang•Zhenci Xu•Guanghui Lin•Yinyi Lin等 11 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Coastal urbanization is a key driver of mangrove loss, yet its global impacts on mangroves have yet to be thoroughly understood. Here we present a fine-scale assessment of the hidden impacts of urbanization on mangroves mediated by climate, and the joint effects of urbanization and climate at the gl...
Environmental impactGeographyWetlands ecology
10.1038/S43247-024-01776-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Unconventional cold vortex as precursor to historic early summer heatwaves in North China 2023
Boqi Liu•Yanan Duan•Shuangmei Ma•Yuhan Yan•Congwen Zhu
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/15
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
In mid-June to July 2023, North China witnessed extreme heatwaves, marked by intense near-surface warming with an advanced seasonal cycle of local air temperature. An unconventional upper-tropospheric cold vortex in early June, deviating from conventional “heat dome” patterns, preceded the heatwave ...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00718-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Wet deposition in shallow convection over the Southern Ocean
T. Alinejadtabrizi•F. Lang•Y. Huang•L. Ackermann•M. Keywood等 11 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/3/22
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-12
Southern Ocean (SO) air is amongst the most pristine on Earth, particularly during winter. Historically, there has been a focus on biogenic sources as an explanation for the seasonal cycle in cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (NCCN). NCCN is also sensitive to the strength of sink terms, altho...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-024-00625-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Limited evidence that tropical inundation and precipitation powered the 2020–2022 methane surge
Ying Xiong•Eric A. Kort•A. Anthony Bloom•Cynthia Gerlein-Safdi•Tianjiao Pu等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/6/10
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Atmospheric methane is rapidly increasing, and the role of tropical wetlands in the global methane budget raises concerns about a potential climate-wetland-methane feedback. Here we use Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System observations to map monthly inundation dynamics across the tropics (37....
Atmospheric chemistryCarbon cycle
10.1038/S43247-025-02438-3
ISSN:2662-4435
A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather
Xiuyu Sun•Xiaohui Zhong•Xiaoze Xu•Yuanqing Huang•Hao Li等 11 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/7/19
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-13
Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrate global observations, data assimilation (DA), and physics-based models. However, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational ...
Atmospheric dynamicsComputational science
10.1038/S41467-025-62024-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Interplay of atmosphere and ocean amplifies summer marine extremes in the Barents Sea at different timescales
Ezra Eisbrenner•Léon Chafik•Oskar Åslund•Kristofer Döös•Julia C. Muchowski
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/8/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Marine extremes are recognized to cause severe ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts. However, in polar regions, such as the Barents Sea, the driving mechanisms of these extremes remain poorly understood and require careful consideration of the observed long-term ocean warming. Here we show that on sh...
Climate changePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01610-5
ISSN:2662-4435
High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change
Junyu Wang•Nikolaos Nikolaou•Matthias an der Heiden•Christopher Irrgang
Communications Medicine
2024
•2024/10/21
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-8
Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to often fragmented data archives over different agglo...
EpidemiologyPublic health
10.1038/S43856-024-00643-3
ISSN:2730-664X
Cooler Arctic surface temperatures simulated by climate models are closer to satellite-based data than the ERA5 reanalysis
Tian Tian•Shuting Yang•Jacob Lorentsen Høyer•Pia Nielsen-Englyst•Suman Singha
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/3/1
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-6
Many climate models simulate near-surface air temperatures that are too low in the Arctic compared to the observation-based ERA5 reanalysis data, a bias that was noted in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6). Here we present a high-resolution, satellite-d...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingCryospheric science
10.1038/S43247-024-01276-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA)
Goswami B. N.•Chakraborty Deepayan•Rajesh P. V.•Mitra Adway
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/7/11
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
In the backdrop of overwhelming evidences of associations between North-Atlantic (NA) sea-surface temperature (SST) and the Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), the lack of a quantitative nonlinear causal inference has been a roadblock for advancing ISMR predictability. Here, we advance a hypothes...
Atmospheric scienceHydrology
10.1038/S41612-022-00281-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Targeted artificial ocean cooling to weaken tropical cyclones would be futile
Hlywiak James•Nolan David S.
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/8/19
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-8
Proposals to use technology to cool sea surface temperatures have received attention for the potential application of weakening a tropical cyclone ahead of landfall. Here, application of an ocean-mixing aware maximum potential intensity theory finds that artificial ocean cooling could drastically we...
Atmospheric dynamicsEnvironmental impactNatural hazardsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-022-00519-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Thermodynamically enhanced precipitation extremes due to counterbalancing influences of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols
Zeqin Huang•Xuezhi Tan•Thian Yew Gan•Bingjun Liu•Xiaohong Chen
Nature Water
2023
•2023/7/3
•00 p.1-12
Responses of precipitation extremes to forcings by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol (AER) emissions could significantly impact society and ecosystems. Although human influences on changes in precipitation extremes are detectable, how precipitation extremes have responded to human-in...
AttributionCivil engineering
10.1038/S44221-023-00107-3
ISSN:2731-6084
Warming triggers snowfall fraction loss Thresholds in High-Mountain Asia
Yupeng Li•Yaning Chen•Fan Sun•Zhi Li•Gonghuan Fang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/17
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Global warming is accelerating climate disasters by triggering tipping points in various Earth systems. Although changes in precipitation patterns in High-Mountain Asia (HMA) have been extensively studied, the specific thresholds that trigger rapid snowfall loss remain unclear. A continuous piecewis...
Climate changeClimate sciencesCryospheric science
10.1038/S41612-025-00935-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Skillful subseasonal soil moisture drought forecasts with deep learning-dynamic models
Kyle Lesinger•Di Tian
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/12
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-17
Deep neural networks that learn from climate reanalysis data have produced skillful weather forecasts within ten days. However, it is still a great challenge for dynamic models to predict soil moisture, droughts, and other extreme events with lead times beyond two weeks. Here, we combine a recursive...
Climate and Earth system modellingHydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-025-62761-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Tropical precipitation response to anthropogenic climate change in recent decades
Ligin Joseph•Pascal Terray•K. P. Sooraj•Sébastien Masson
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/26
0Tropical rainfall plays a central role in the climate system, shaping ecosystems and societies. Here we show that recent tropical rainfall changes are primarily driven by spatial shifts in atmospheric circulation rather than thermodynamic processes, and cannot be explained by the “Wet Get Wetter” or...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-71187-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Generating high accuracy multi-layer soil moisture at daily scale in the black soil region of China
Liwen Chen•Yangguang Wang•Jingquan Ren•Haiqing Song•Guangxin Zhang等 10 人
Scientific Data
2025
•2025/10/28
•Vol.12 No.1 p.1-12
The black soil region of China is one of the four major black soil regions in the world and is an important grain production base. High-accuracy soil moisture data are therefore crucial for understanding the mechanisms of drought and waterlogging on crop yields. Here, we present a 16 years (2008–202...
AgricultureHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41597-025-05986-7
ISSN:2052-4463
Record-breaking fire weather in North America in 2021 was initiated by the Pacific northwest heat dome
Piyush Jain•Aseem Raj Sharma•Dante Castellanos Acuna•John T. Abatzoglou•Mike Flannigan
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/4/22
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
The 2021 North American wildfire season was marked by record breaking fire-conducive weather and widespread synchronous burning, extreme fire behaviour, smoke and evacuations. Relative to 1979–2021, the greatest number of temperature and vapor pressure deficit records were broken in 2021, and in Jul...
Climate sciencesNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-024-01346-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Urban rooftops for food and energy in China
Rui Yang•Chao Xu•Haoran Zhang•Zhen Wang•Prajal Pradhan等 11 人
Nature Cities
2024
•2024/9/16
•00 p.1-10
Urban rooftop agriculture (RA) and photovoltaic power production (RPV) offer sustainable solutions for the food–energy nexus in cities but compete for limited rooftop space. Here we explore the potential benefits (productivity, economic and environmental) and allocation strategy of RA and RPV across...
Environmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S44284-024-00127-4
ISSN:2731-9997
Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change
Jiangdong Liu•Ho Kim•Masahiro Hashizume•Whanhee Lee•Yasushi Honda等 9 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/14
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Heatwaves are commonly simplified as binary variables in epidemiological studies, limiting the understanding of heatwave-mortality associations. Here we conduct a multi-country study across 28 East Asian cities that employed the Cumulative Excess Heatwave Index (CEHWI), which represents excess heat ...
Environmental healthEpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S41467-025-56067-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Fuel availability versus flammability: divergent fire controls across Eurasian drylands
Huiqian Yu•Siquan Yang•Nan Lu•Qichao Yao•Hongquan Sun等 8 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/4/13
0Fire regulates the carbon, water and nutrient cycles, especially in regions with distinct wet and dry seasons. The dramatic vegetation response to climatic factors complicates fire preconditions in Eurasian drylands, leaving our understanding of climate-fuel-fire patterns limited. Here we identify e...
Fire ecologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-026-71598-3
ISSN:2041-1723
What sets aeolian dune height?
Gunn Andrew•Casasanta Giampietro•Di Liberto Luca•Falcini Federico•Lancaster Nicholas等 6 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/5/3
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-8
Wherever a loose bed of sand is subject to sufficiently strong winds, aeolian dunes form at predictable wavelengths and growth rates. As dunes mature and coarsen, however, their growth trajectories become more idiosyncratic; nonlinear effects, sediment supply, wind variability and geologic constrain...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental sciencesGeomorphology
10.1038/S41467-022-30031-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Subseasonal variability of the winter North Atlantic jet stream has decreased due to climate change
Andrea Vito Vacca•Jacob Perez•Katinka Bellomo•Júlia Casadevall Díaz•Ieuan Davies等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/4/9
0The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet plays a vital role in shaping Euro-Atlantic weather and climate. While previous research has focused on the seasonal mean jet response to climate change, its changes at subseasonal timescales remain poorly understood, despite the importance for extreme weather. Her...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-026-03423-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter
Abid Muhammad Adnan•Kucharski Fred•Molteni Franco•Almazroui Mansour
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/3/11
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies play an important role in modulating the anomalous climate conditions in the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region during the early boreal winter (November–December; ND) season. In this study, we analyzed the forcing mechani...
Climate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-023-00328-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
Decadal-scale thermal memory of permafrost and climatic and topographic modulation on the Tibetan Plateau
Ziteng Fu•Luyang Wang•Guanli Jiang•Xinyu Men•Wenyan Du等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/8
0Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exhibits a pronounced temporal offset between atmospheric warming and subsurface thermal changes, yet its characteristic timescales, spatial patterns, and environmental drivers remain poorly quantified. This complicates the interpretation of climate forcing and...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-026-01368-X
ISSN:2397-3722
A hybrid framework for global weather forecasting via low-resolution dynamical core and multigrid neural operator
Yifan Hu•Fukang Yin•Weimin Zhang•Kaijun Ren•Junqiang Song等 6 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/3/20
0Numerical weather prediction is the cornerstone of modern weather forecasting, yet its operational implementation demands vast computational resources. While artificial intelligence (AI)-based forecasting models offer a computationally efficient alternative, these purely data-driven approaches often...
EngineeringMathematics and computingPhysics
10.1038/S41612-026-01374-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
FuXi: a cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast
Lei Chen•Xiaohui Zhong•Feng Zhang•Yuan Cheng•Yinghui Xu等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/16
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has led to state-of-the-art ML models that have superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s high-resolution forecast (HRES), which is widely co...
Atmospheric dynamicsStatistics
10.1038/S41612-023-00512-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023
Matthew H. England•Zhi Li•Maurice F. Huguenin•Andrew E. Kiss•Alex Sen Gupta等 7 人
Nature
2025
•2025/6/4
•00 p.1-8
North Atlantic Ocean circulation and temperature patterns profoundly influence global and regional climate across all timescales, from synoptic1 to seasonal2–4, decadal5, multidecadal6,7 and beyond8,9. During 2023, an extreme and near-basin-scale marine heatwave developed during Northern Hemisphere ...
AttributionPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41586-025-08903-5
ISSN:0028-0836
Flood exposure and intimate partner violence in low- and middle-income countries
Yichen Guo•Yixiang Zhu•Zafar Fatmi•Lu Zhou•Cheng He等 8 人
Nature Water
2025
•2025/1/31
•00 p.1-11
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global public health challenge, causing physical and psychological harm to victims. Although studies have explored the impacts of various extreme weather events on IPV, there is still inadequate evidence on the association between flood exposure and IPV on a mult...
Natural hazardsPsychology and behaviour
10.1038/S44221-025-00389-9
ISSN:2731-6084
Global evidence for a positive relationship between tree species richness and ecosystem photosynthesis
Ruochen Cao•Yongguang Zhang•Marcos Fernández-Martínez•Zhaoying Zhang•Gengke Lai等 7 人
Nature Plants
2025
•2025/7/3
•Vol.11 No.7 p.1429-1440
Forest biodiversity plays a critical role in sustaining ecosystem functioning and buffering the effects of increased extreme weather events on forests. A global assessment of the relationship between biodiversity and photosynthesis in natural forest ecosystems, however, remains elusive. We used a la...
BiodiversityClimate-change ecologyEcosystem ecologyForest ecology
10.1038/S41477-025-02046-1
ISSN:2055-0278
Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023
J. Mex•C. Cassou•A. Jézéquel•S. Bony•C. Deser
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/3/19
0Global surface air temperature reached unprecedented heights in early boreal fall 2023, surpassing the previous record for year-to-year temperature increase by a significant margin. We attribute most of this temperature jump to the onset and maturing stages of the 2023 El Niño, with some contributio...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S43247-026-03382-6
ISSN:2662-4435
A structural correction to atmospheric evaporative demand narrows the gap between offline aridity diagnostics and Earth system model projections
Daeha Kim•Minha Choi
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/5
•Vol.9 No.1 p.340
Offline aridity and drought diagnostics typically project widespread terrestrial drying under climate change, whereas fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) often simulate modest or regionally heterogeneous changes—and in some regions increasing—runoff. This long-standing divergence has been attri...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-01306-3
ISSN:2397-3722
A climatology of stratospheric gravity waves induced by tropical cyclones on the northwest Pacific Ocean
Xu Wang•Yuan Wang•Lifeng Zhang•Yun Zhang•Jiping Guan
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
A climatology of stratospheric gravity waves (SGWs) induced by tropical cyclones (TC-SGWs) is necessary for stratospheric aviation safety and accurate numerical weather prediction. Few previous works have characterized the climatology of TC-SGWs, and the relative importance of the source and backgro...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttribution
10.1038/S41612-024-00705-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Climate change threatens terrestrial water storage over the Tibetan Plateau
Li Xueying•Long Di•Scanlon Bridget R.•Mann Michael E.•Li Xingdong等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/8/15
•00 p.1-7
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the Tibetan Plateau, a major global water tower, is crucial in determining water transport and availability to a large downstream Asian population. Climate change impacts on historical and future TWS changes, however, are not well quantified. Here we used bottom-...
Cryospheric scienceHydrologyWater resources
10.1038/S41558-022-01443-0
ISSN:1758-678X
Divergent controls on surface and thermal offsets in permafrost across the three poles
Jia Liu•Dongliang Luo•Qingbai Wu•Wojciech Dobiński•Huijun Jin等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/11/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
The thermal response of permafrost to climate change is quantified by two key metrics: the surface offset (SO), the mean annual temperature difference between near-surface air and the ground surface, and the thermal offset (TO), the equivalent difference between the ground surface and the top of per...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01235-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal-to-noise ratios in climate predictions
Hardiman Steven C.•Dunstone Nick J.•Scaife Adam A.•Smith Doug M.•Comer Ruth等 7 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/7/11
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-8
The signal-to-noise paradox that climate models are better at predicting the real world than their own ensemble forecast members highlights a serious and currently unresolved model error, adversely affecting climate predictions and introducing uncertainty into climate projections. By computing the m...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-022-00280-4
ISSN:2397-3722
The jump in global temperatures in September 2023 is extremely unlikely due to internal climate variability alone
Mika Rantanen•Ari Laaksonen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-4
September 2023 was the warmest September on record globally by a record margin of 0.5 °C. Here we show that such a record-breaking margin is an extremely rare event in the latest generation of climate models, making it highly unlikely (p ~ 1%) that internal climate variability combined with the stea...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00582-9
ISSN:2397-3722
From intermittent to persistent chill insufficiency in California’s specialty crops
Prakash K. Jha•Geruo A•Tapan B. Pathak•Isabella Velicogna
Communications Sustainability
2026
•2026/5/9
•Vol.1 No.1 p.760
Sufficient winter chill is critical for breaking dormancy and enabling normal flowering and fruit set in temperature fruit and nut crops. Here, we use observational data to show that increasing interannual temperature variability has already reduced winter chill in California’s Central Valley, contr...
AgricultureClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S44458-026-00084-0
ISSN:3059-4308
Enhanced wind mixing and deepened mixed layer in the Pacific Arctic shelf seas with low summer sea ice
Yuanqi Wang•Zhixuan Feng•Peigen Lin•Hongjun Song•Jicai Zhang等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/11/29
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
The Arctic Ocean has experienced significant sea ice loss over recent decades, shifting towards a thinner and more mobile seasonal ice regime. However, the impacts of these transformations on the upper ocean dynamics of the biologically productive Pacific Arctic continental shelves remain underexplo...
Cryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-54733-W
ISSN:2041-1723
Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability
Andrew F. Feldman•Alexandra G. Konings•Pierre Gentine•Mitra Cattry•Lixin Wang等 10 人
Nature
2024
•2024/12/11
•Vol.636 No.8042 p.380-384
Rainfall events are globally becoming less frequent but more intense under a changing climate, thereby shifting climatic conditions for terrestrial vegetation independent of annual rainfall totals1–3. However, it remains uncertain how changes in daily rainfall variability are affecting global vegeta...
Carbon cycleHydrologyPhotosynthesis
10.1038/S41586-024-08232-Z
ISSN:0028-0836
Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data
Mateusz Taszarek•John T. Allen•Mattia Marchio•Harold E. Brooks
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2021
•2021/6/11
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed ov...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-021-00190-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
Kaifeng Bi•Lingxi Xie•Hengheng Zhang•Xin Chen•Xiaotao Gu等 6 人
Nature
2023
•2023/7/5
•00 p.1-6
Weather forecasting is important for science and society. At present, the most accurate forecast system is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) method, which represents atmospheric states as discretized grids and numerically solves partial differential equations that describe the transition betwee...
Atmospheric dynamicsComputer science
10.1038/S41586-023-06185-3
ISSN:0028-0836
Declining grassland canopy height in China under asymmetric biomass allocation
Huaqiang Li•Xinmiao Hu•Fei Li•Yingjun Zhang•Kejian Lin等 7 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/3
•Vol.17 No.1 p.33640
Grassland canopy height is one of the most important traits for determining plant diversity and community structure, directly affecting the resource use efficiency of livestock in grassland ecosystems. However, broad-scale changes in grassland canopy height are seldom reported due to the complex eff...
Grassland ecologyPlant ecology
10.1038/S41467-026-70275-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Multi-scale drivers of increasing off-season tropical cyclone landfalls in the western North Pacific
Beata Latos•Il-Ju Moon•Hanna Heidemann
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/2/18
•Vol.9 No.1 p.820
Off-season landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific show evidence of increased frequency between 1981–2022. We identify convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves (CCERWs) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) as key physical modulators of off-season landfalling TC...
Climate sciencesNatural hazards
10.1038/S41612-026-01349-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Role of vector phenotypic plasticity in disease transmission as illustrated by the spread of dengue virus by Aedes albopictus
Dominic P. Brass•Christina A. Cobbold•Bethan V. Purse•David A. Ewing•Amanda Callaghan等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/9/7
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-22
The incidence of vector-borne disease is on the rise globally, with burdens increasing in endemic countries and outbreaks occurring in new locations. Effective mitigation and intervention strategies require models that accurately predict both spatial and temporal changes in disease dynamics, but thi...
Applied mathematicsEcological epidemiologyEcological modellingPopulation dynamics
10.1038/S41467-024-52144-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble
S. Vishnu•William R. Boos•William D. Collins
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/11/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-11
Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-023-00502-3
ISSN:2397-3722
A time-stratified, case–crossover study of heat exposure and perinatal mortality from 16 hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa
Claudia Hanson•Jeroen de Bont•Kristi Sidney Annerstedt•Maria del Rosario Alsina•Federica Nobile等 16 人
Nature Medicine
2024
•2024/9/3
•00 p.1-8
Growing evidence suggests that extreme heat events affect both pregnant women and their infants, but few studies are available from sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from 138,015 singleton births in 16 hospitals in Benin, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda, we investigated the association between extreme heat...
EpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S41591-024-03245-7
ISSN:1078-8956
Ensemble forecasting greatly expands the prediction horizon for ocean mesoscale variability
Prasad G. Thoppil•Sergey Frolov•Clark D. Rowley•Carolyn A. Reynolds•Gregg A. Jacobs等 11 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2021
•2021/5/14
•Vol.2 No.1 p.1-9
Mesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport and primary production in the upper ocean. However, the forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales in current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving ocean models, with horizontal resolu...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-021-00151-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Climate warming may undermine sleep duration and quality in repeated-measure study of 23 million records
Anni Li•Huihuan Luo•Yixiang Zhu•Zheqi Zhang•Binbin Liu等 10 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/3/17
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
The impact of rising ambient temperatures on sleep and its phases under climate change is becoming increasingly concerning but remains underexplored. Sleep, consisting of non-rapid eye movement and rapid eye movement phases, is crucial for health, and insufficient sleep in either phase could have si...
Environmental healthRisk factorsSleep disorders
10.1038/S41467-025-57781-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Patagonian Ice Sheet shaped regional climate during the Last Glacial Maximum
Fabian M. Riquelme-Barraza•Álvaro Gómez-Contreras•Nicolás J. Cosentino•Jiang Zhu•Esteban A. Sagredo等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/10/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
During the Last Glacial Maximum, changes in the thickness of the Patagonian Ice Sheet modified southern Andean topography. However, the resulting atmospheric feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Using an atmosphere–land coupled model, we isolated the climate response to prescribed ice-sheet thicknes...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceGeomorphologyPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S43247-025-02762-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Aerosol-driven North Pacific High anomaly enhances sea ice loss in the Chukchi Sea
Yungi Hong•S.-Y. Simon Wang•Jin-Ho Yoon
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/25
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
The Arctic has warmed significantly faster than the rest of the globe, leading to rapid sea ice decline. Anthropogenic aerosols are traditionally viewed as cooling agents that do not contribute to Arctic sea ice loss. Here we investigate how aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric circulation pattern...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S43247-025-02577-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics
Masaki Toda•Yu Kosaka•Ayumu Miyamoto•Masahiro Watanabe
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/8/29
•00 p.1-8
The Pacific Walker circulation—the tropical Pacific zonal overturning circulation of the atmosphere—and the associated sea surface temperature distribution in the tropical Pacific significantly impact global climate. However, climate model historical simulations cannot capture the observed Walker ci...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionClimate change
10.1038/S41561-024-01510-5
ISSN:1752-0894
Shortened intensification duration offsets the increase of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity
Yufeng Zhou•Yanluan Lin
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/12/24
0The bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has strengthened in recent decades, yet the mechanisms underlying this distribution and its recent changes remain debated. Here, we introduce a rate-duration framework that decomposes LMI into two fundamental componen...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01295-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture
Jianxiu Qiu•Chenxi He•Xiaoping Liu•Lun Gao•Chao Tan等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/2
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-13
Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern Chin...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00808-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica
Christie Frazer D. W.•Steig Eric J.•Gourmelen Noel•Tett Simon F. B.•Bingham Robert G.
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/1/16
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
West Antarctica has experienced dramatic ice losses contributing to global sea-level rise in recent decades, particularly from Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Although these ice losses manifest an ongoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability, projections of their future rate are confounded by limited obs...
Cryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-022-35471-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Proof of concept for a new sensor to monitor marine litter from space
Andrés Cózar•Manuel Arias•Giuseppe Suaria•Josué Viejo•Stefano Aliani等 15 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/14
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-12
Worldwide, governments are implementing strategies to combat marine litter. However, their effectiveness is largely unknown because we lack tools to systematically monitor marine litter over broad spatio-temporal scales. Metre-sized aggregations of floating debris generated by sea-surface convergenc...
Environmental impactMarine chemistryPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-48674-7
ISSN:2041-1723
A possible relation between Arctic sea ice and late season Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes
Sourav Chatterjee•Muthalagu Ravichandran•Nuncio Murukesh•Roshin P. Raj•Ola M. Johannessen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2021
•2021/6/22
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-6
The out-of-phase inter-decadal co-variability between summer (JJA) sea ice extent (SIE) in the Kara Sea (KS) sector of the Arctic Ocean and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is found to be weakened during the recent decades with rapidly declining SIE in the KS (since the 1980s). However, SIE in ...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41612-021-00191-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Global assessment and hotspots of lake drought
Xing Cheng•Shuo Wang•Jianli Chen•Amir AghaKouchak
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/21
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-12
Many lakes have exhibited substantial variability in recent years, making “lake drought” a growing concern. However, there is no established framework for identifying and studying lake droughts. Here, we propose a reliable definition for it and provide a global assessment of over 160,000 lakes (≥1 k...
HydrologyLimnology
10.1038/S43247-025-02285-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Winter stratospheric extreme events impact European storm damage
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman•Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/4
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Extreme stratospheric events, such as sudden stratospheric warmings or strong polar vortex events, can have a persistent influence on winter surface weather. While these changes often lead to shifts in extratropical cyclone tracks and increased risk of extreme winds, flooding, or heavy snowfall, the...
Atmospheric dynamicsNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02431-W
ISSN:2662-4435
Hybrid bottom-up and top-down framework resolves discrepancies in Canada’s oil and gas methane inventories
Elton Chan•Felix Vogel•Steve Smyth•Owen Barrigar•Misa Ishizawa等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/10/7
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Estimating accurate oil and gas methane emissions has been a global challenge, highlighted by a twofold discrepancy between atmospheric measurement-based estimates and emission inventories. The principle of continuous improvement in Canada’s National Inventory Report has led to an unstable baseline ...
Climate-change policyEnergy and society
10.1038/S43247-024-01728-6
ISSN:2662-4435
Impact of Amazonian deforestation on precipitation reverses between seasons
Yingzuo Qin•Dashan Wang•Alan D. Ziegler•Bojie Fu•Zhenzhong Zeng
Nature
2025
•2025/3/5
•Vol.639 No.8053 p.102-108
Tropical deforestation was found to cause large reductions in precipitation using a range of observation-based datasets1. However, the limitations of satellite-based space-for-time statistical analysis have hindered understanding of the roles of reshaped mesoscale atmospheric circulation and re...
ForestryHydrologyTropical ecologyWater resources
10.1038/S41586-024-08570-Y
ISSN:0028-0836
Recent fall Eurasian cooling linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures and a strengthening Siberian high
Baofu Li•Yupeng Li•Yaning Chen•Baohuan Zhang•Xun Shi
Nature Communications
2020
•2020/10/15
•Vol.11 No.1 p.1-8
Winter Eurasian cooling after the mid-1990s has been verified by numerous studies, although in recent decades, the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have been rapidly warming globally. Because the cooling is not uniform at different spatial and temporal scales, over time, this change may not ...
Atmospheric dynamicsAtmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41467-020-19014-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts
Xilin Wu•Jun Wang•Yong Ge•Shengjie Lai•Die Zhang等 7 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/8/11
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-15
Anthropogenic climate change is driving summer heat toward more humid conditions, accompanied by more frequent day-night compound heat extremes (high temperatures during both day and night). As the fast-warming and aging continent, Europe faces escalating heat-related health risks. Here, we projecte...
Climate-change adaptationEnvironmental healthNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-025-62871-Y
ISSN:2041-1723
Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy
Yanli Dong•Zhen Yu•Thomas Pugh•Evgenios Agathokleous•Fangmin Zhang等 13 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/12
•Vol.17 No.1 p.15760
China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of ‘forest edge’, where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fir...
Carbon cycleForestry
10.1038/S41467-026-68288-5
ISSN:2041-1723
Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting
Vikki Thompson•Dim Coumou•Urs Beyerle•Joy Ommer•Hannah L. Cloke等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/7/8
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
In July 2021, a cut-off low-pressure system brought extreme rainfall to Western Europe, leading to flooding that caused loss of life and infrastructure damage. Here, we use ensemble boosting to investigate alternative storylines of the event, given the observed dynamical situation. Using a fully cou...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02386-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
Rantanen Mika•Karpechko Alexey Yu.•Lipponen Antti•Nordling Kalle•Hyvärinen Otto等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/8/11
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using s...
Climate changeEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S43247-022-00498-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Testing NeuralGCM's capability to simulate future heatwaves based on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave event
Shiheng Duan•Jishi Zhang•Céline Bonfils•Giuliana Pallotta
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/7/1
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-8
AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-025-01137-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick•Catherine H. Gregory•Jennifer K. Vanos•Jane W. Baldwin•Haley Staudmyer等 7 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/26
•Vol.17 No.1 p.25900
Heat stress limits for human survivability have been previously defined by a 6-hour exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of 35oC. However, the recently developed physiology-based HEAT-Lim model demonstrates that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought. We e...
Environmental healthGeographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-70485-1
ISSN:2041-1723
ENSO phase transition enables prediction of winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead
Kiwook Kim•Myong-In Lee•Adam A. Scaife•Doug M. Smith
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/3/25
•Vol.17 No.1 p.25880
The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a dominant mode of climate variability affecting temperature and precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere, yet its prediction at seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) lead times remains challenging. Here, using multi-year hindcasts from a multi-model ensem...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modelling
10.1038/S41467-026-70646-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Rapid changes in global river particulate organic carbon flux
Shang Tian•Dongfeng Li•Pierre Regnier•Joshua F. Dean•Jaia Syvitski等 13 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/6/29
•00 p.1-7
Oceanic sequestration of river-exported particulate organic carbon (POC) is an important carbon sink, yet current global carbon budgets often overlook the temporal variability of land–ocean POC export under recent anthropogenic perturbations. Here we estimate trends in near-surface POC flux for 2,40...
Carbon cycleHydrology
10.1038/S41561-026-02034-W
ISSN:1752-0894
Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress
Zheng Fu•Philippe Ciais•Jean-Pierre Wigneron•Pierre Gentine•Andrew F. Feldman等 22 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/6
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water...
BiogeographyCarbon cycleEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-49244-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Breaking Rossby waves drive extreme precipitation in the world’s arid regions
Andries Jan de Vries•Moshe Armon•Klaus Klingmüller•Raphael Portmann•Matthias Röthlisberger等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/9/20
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
More than a third of the world’s population lives in drylands and is disproportionately at risk from hydrometeorological hazards such as drought and flooding. While weather systems governing precipitation formation in humid regions have been widely explored, our understanding of the atmospheric proc...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-024-01633-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Urbanization brings earlier onset of summertime compound heatwaves
Peng Ji•Xinyi Zhang•Xing Yuan•Qibo Xu
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/4/24
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Urbanization is revealed to cause more frequent and hotter day-night compound heatwaves, yet its impact on their onset remains unclear. This study compares summertime compound heatwaves in 722 urban-rural station pairs globally on an event-by-event basis during 1971-2017 and attributes their differe...
Climate changeEnvironmental studiesNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-025-02315-Z
ISSN:2662-4435
Cloud processing and weeklong ageing affect biomass burning aerosol properties over the south-eastern Atlantic
Che Haochi•Segal-Rozenhaimer Michal•Zhang Lu•Dang Caroline•Zuidema Paquita等 13 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/8/18
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
Southern Africa produces a third of global biomass burning emissions, which have a long atmospheric lifetime and influence regional radiation balance and climate. Here, we use airmass trajectories to link different aircraft observations to investigate the evolution of biomass-burning aerosols during...
Atmospheric chemistry
10.1038/S43247-022-00517-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Skillful seasonal predictions of continental East-Asian summer rainfall by integrating its spatio-temporal evolution
Jieru Ma•Hong-Li Ren•Ming Cai•Yi Deng•Chenguang Zhou等 8 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/1/3
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-10
Skillful seasonal climate prediction is critical for food and water security over the world’s heavily populated regions, such as in continental East Asia. Current models, however, face significant difficulties in predicting the summer mean rainfall anomaly over continental East Asia, and forecasting...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-024-55271-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Unprecedented recent summer warming and cross-sphere hydrological coupling in Asian Water Towers
Youping Chen•Feng Chen•Mao Hu•Xiaoen Zhao•Honghua Cao等 12 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/7
•Vol.9 No.1 p.60
The Asian Water Towers play a crucial role by storing and releasing vast amounts of freshwater, thereby sustaining the base flow of major Asian rivers and water security for billions of people at sub-continent to hemispheric scales. Instrumental records, though spatially and temporally limited, indi...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41612-025-01254-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
Spring phenology of the Arctic Ocean shelf production system
Mats Huserbråten•Frode B. Vikebø
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/1/14
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1700
The shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean host some of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems, yet their under-ice early-season phenology and inter-trophic dynamics remain poorly understood amid rapid climate change. Addressing these knowledge gaps, we assembled a data-driven biophysical model inte...
Marine biologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-026-03192-W
ISSN:2662-4435
European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards
Elizaveta Felsche•Andrea Böhnisch•Benjamin Poschlod•Ralf Ludwig
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/7/31
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Heatwaves and dry spells are major climate hazards with far-reaching implications for health, economy, agriculture, and ecosystems. The frequency of compound hot and dry summers in Europe has risen in recent years. Here we present an examination of past extreme summers and compare them to future cli...
Natural hazardsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01575-5
ISSN:2662-4435
Stratocumulus adjustments to aerosol perturbations disentangled with a causal approach
Emilie Fons•Jakob Runge•David Neubauer•Ulrike Lohmann
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2023
•2023/8/29
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
A large fraction of the uncertainty around future global warming is due to the cooling effect of aerosol-liquid cloud interactions, and in particular to the elusive sign of liquid water path (LWP) adjustments to aerosol perturbations. To quantify this adjustment, we propose a causal approach that co...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change
10.1038/S41612-023-00452-W
ISSN:2397-3722
How much do atmospheric depressions and Mongolian cyclones contribute to spring dust activities in East Asia?
Feifei Mu•Stephanie Fiedler
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/2/15
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
Severe East Asian dust storms occur in spring due to dust-emitting winds in the Gobi Desert associated with Mongolian cyclones. The present study performs the first quantitative assessment of the contributions of Mongolian cyclones to springtime dust activity in East Asia, based on multiple reanalys...
Atmospheric scienceEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00929-W
ISSN:2397-3722
Reorienting agricultural practices on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for internal–external sustainability benefits
Chongchong Ye•Shuai Wang•Changjia Li•Lindsay C. Stringer•Xutong Wu等 7 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/17
•Vol.6 No.1 p.9140
Agricultural practices threaten environmental sustainability at both local and transboundary scales, yet how to optimize them for improved sustainability across these multiple scales remains poorly understood. Here we propose an integrated framework combining safe and just operating spaces, spatial ...
Environmental impactSustainability
10.1038/S43247-025-02864-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities
Pierre Masselot•Malcolm N. Mistry•Shilpa Rao•Veronika Huber•Ana Monteiro等 16 人
Nature Medicine
2025
•2025/1/27
•00 p.1-9
Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimate...
EpidemiologyRisk factors
10.1038/S41591-024-03452-2
ISSN:1078-8956
Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
Lifei Lin•Chundi Hu•Bin Wang•Renguang Wu•Zeming Wu等 10 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/3/9
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-10
The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by app...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41467-024-46543-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Nitrate pollution deterioration in winter driven by surface ozone increase
Zekun Zhang•Bingqing Lu•Chao Liu•Xue Meng•Jiakui Jiang等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/7/4
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-9
Recently, nitrate (NO3–) levels in winter pollution in eastern China have been increasing yearly and have become the main component of PM2.5. The factors contributing to this rise in surface NO3– concentrations remain unclear, complicating the development of targeted pollution control measures. This...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00667-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993
Hexin Ye•Zhanhong Ma•Jianfang Fei•Kevin E. Trenberth•Toste Tanhua等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2026
•2026/5/25
•00 p.1-9
The ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic carbon, absorbing 20~30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions across the air–sea interface. Intense weather systems, such as tropical cyclones, can strongly perturb the upper ocean and thus critically influence this carbon transfer. Here we develop an approach of...
Carbon cycleMarine chemistryOcean sciences
10.1038/S41561-026-01985-4
ISSN:1752-0894
Increasing coastal exposure to extreme wave events in the Alaskan Arctic as the open water season expands
Martin Henke•Tyler Miesse•André de Souza de Lima•Celso M. Ferreira•Thomas M. Ravens
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/3/30
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-9
Declining Arctic sea ice over recent decades has been linked to growth in coastal hazards affecting the Alaskan Arctic. In this study, climate model projections of sea ice are utilized in the simulation of an extratropical cyclone to quantify how future changes in seasonal ice coverage could affect ...
Climate-change impactsCryospheric scienceNatural hazardsPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01323-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Heatwaves trigger severe surface ozone pollution in India: regional hotspots, trends and health effects
Parambat Sangeetha•Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath
Npj Clean Air
2026
•2026/6/12
•Vol.2 No.1 p.400
Compound weather extremes are a growing concern under climate change. We present the first comprehensive long-term assessment of surface ozone (SfO₃) changes during heatwaves (HWs) in India using surface, satellite, and reanalysis data for 2004–2024, with SfO₃ from MERRA-2 reanalysis. In northern In...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S44407-026-00082-5
ISSN:3059-2240
Recent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific warming pool can be attributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases
Barkhordarian Armineh•Nielsen David Marcolino•Baehr Johanna
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/6/21
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-12
Over the last decade, the northeast Pacific experienced marine heatwaves that caused devastating marine ecological impacts with socioeconomic implications. Here we use two different attribution methods and show that forcing by elevated greenhouse gases levels has virtually certainly caused the multi...
AttributionOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-022-00461-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
Chung Eui-Seok•Kim Seong-Joong•Timmermann Axel•Ha Kyung-Ja•Lee Sang-Ki等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2022
•2022/4/14
•00 p.1-8
A variety of hypotheses, involving sub-ice-shelf melting, stratospheric ozone depletion and tropical teleconnections, have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion over the period of continuous satellite monitoring and corresponding model–observation discrepancy, but the iss...
Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionCryospheric science
10.1038/S41558-022-01339-Z
ISSN:1758-678X
Land-atmosphere feedbacks and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing intensify subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions
Yinghao Fu•Haishen Lü•Ali Levent Yagci•Yonghua Zhu•Yingying Xu等 10 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/3/23
0Abrupt transitions from drought to pluvial conditions are increasingly reported and pose substantial risks to global hydrological stability. However, their occurrence patterns, underlying mechanisms, and future trajectories remain insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a soil moisture-precipita...
Hydrology
10.1038/S43247-026-03371-9
ISSN:2662-4435
Predictable atmospheric circulation driver of Eurasian winter temperatures
Nick J. Dunstone•Chaofan Li•Doug M. Smith•Steven C. Hardiman•Leon Hermanson等 10 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/1/28
•Vol.9 No.1 p.280
In contrast to global warming trends, much of Eurasia experienced a winter cooling trend over 1990–2014. Some studies have proposed a causal link between this regional cooling, particularly strong over Siberia, to coincident reductions in Arctic sea-ice extent. However, free-running historical clima...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01297-1
ISSN:2397-3722
FuXi-Air: air quality forecasting based on emission-meteorology-pollutant multimodal machine learning
Zhixin Geng•Xu Fan•Xiqiao Lu•Yan Zhang•Guangyuan Yu等 12 人
Npj Clean Air
2026
•2026/4/2
•Vol.2 No.1 p.210
Air pollution has emerged as a major public health challenge worldwide. Numerical simulations and single-site machine-learning approaches in air quality forecasting faced multiple limitations. It is urgent to develop a low-cost, efficient air quality forecasting model. FuXi-Air has been constructed ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S44407-026-00061-W
ISSN:3059-2240
Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures
Andreas Kääb•Julie Røste
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/31
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-9
Despite their extensive global presence and the importance of variations in their speed as an essential climate variable, only about a dozen global time series document long-term changes in the velocity of rock glaciers – large tongue-shaped flows of frozen mountain debris. By analysing historical a...
Climate-change impactsCryospheric scienceGeomorphology
10.1038/S41467-024-52093-Z
ISSN:2041-1723
Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
Nick Dunstone•Doug M. Smith•Steven C. Hardiman•Paul Davies•Sarah Ineson等 9 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/17
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-11
Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are key to a resilient society. However, standard methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not optimised to identify the rarer and most impactful extremes. For example, standard tercile probability maps, used in real-time regional climate outlooks...
Atmospheric dynamicsHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S41467-023-42377-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Human-induced water loss potentially threatens sustainable development of sandy regions in China
Runa A•Xinliang Pan•Liudi Zhu•Kelvin T. F. Chan•Zhangcai Qin等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/1/30
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
Water is indispensable for sustainable socioeconomic development, especially in China’s sandy regions. Despite existing studies in sandy regions, the drivers of changes in total water storage and their potential impacts remain inadequately understood. Here we found a 55.97 billion m³ net loss in tot...
GeographyHydrologySustainability
10.1038/S43247-025-02046-1
ISSN:2662-4435
Complementary error structures of AI and numerical models in forecasting boundary-layer jets over the South China Sea
Haimin Li•Yu Du
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/4/22
0The boundary-layer jet (BLJ) over the northern South China Sea exerts a strong influence on heavy rainfall along the South China coast, yet its predictability across different modeling frameworks remains insufficiently understood. This study presents a systematic comparison of BLJ forecasts from a c...
Climate sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-026-01419-3
ISSN:2397-3722
Shear lines trigger heavy rainfalls in the Philippines during the winter monsoon
Sheilla Mae Reyes•Seungyeon Lee•Seon Ki Park
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-15
Heavy rainfall events (HREs) occur almost throughout the year in the Philippines, with relatively limited research during the winter monsoon. This study analyzes the 20-year (2003–2022) daily precipitation from 55 rain gauges and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) from November to...
Atmospheric dynamicsMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-024-00780-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Greenhouse warming and anthropogenic aerosols synergistically reduce springtime rainfall in low-latitude East Asia
Ryu Young-Hee•Min Seung-Ki
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2022
•2022/9/10
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
Low-latitude East Asia, particularly southern China, has experienced a markedly decreasing springtime rainfall in recent years whereas rainfall trends are weak in mid-latitude East Asia. Details of human influences on this contrasting feature remain uncertain. This study provides a quantification of...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-022-00295-X
ISSN:2397-3722
Feature selection for data-driven seasonal forecasts of European heatwaves
Ronan McAdam•Jorge Pérez-Aracil•Antonello Squintu•César Peláez-Rodríguez•Felicitas Hansen等 12 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/11/4
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-10
The early warning of heatwaves using seasonal forecasting systems has the potential to mitigate economic losses and risk to life. Because of the limited reliability and computational expense of dynamical forecasting systems, efforts in recent years have turned to exploiting Machine Learning. Here, a...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02863-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Summer sea ice in the Northwestern Chukchi Sea observed in 2024 for the first time in 25 years
G. W. K. Moore•J. Zhang•A. Schweiger•M. Steele•T. J. Ballinger
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/9/24
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-10
The Arctic Ocean has seen a profound sea ice loss during the summer, with changes most pronounced in the Western Arctic. This has resulted in the Chukchi Sea, located just north of Bering Strait, being ice-free by the end of summer, i.e. September, since 2000, except during 2024. Here using the ice ...
Atmospheric dynamicsCryospheric sciencePhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-025-01099-5
ISSN:2397-3722
Influence of an abnormally cold stratospheric polar vortex on the sub-regional PM2.5 anomaly in East Asia in March of 2021
Jae-Hee Cho•Hak-Sung Kim
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-14
This study investigates the critical role of meteorological variability, particularly polar vortex dynamics, in shaping PM2.5 anomaly patterns across sub-regions in East Asia. Following sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in winter, East Asia experienced significant tropospheric transitions, includin...
Atmospheric chemistryEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S41612-024-00850-8
ISSN:2397-3722
Improved estimates of extreme wave conditions in coastal areas from calibrated global reanalyses
Fanti Valeria•Ferreira Óscar•Kümmerer Vincent•Loureiro Carlos
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/4
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-11
The analysis of extreme wave conditions is crucial for understanding and mitigating coastal hazards. As global wave reanalyses allow to extend the evaluation of wave conditions to periods and locations not covered by in-situ measurements, their direct use is common. However, in coastal areas, the ac...
Natural hazardsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-023-00819-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Seasonal progression of melt and snowlines in Alaska from SAR reveals impacts of warming
Albin Wells•David R. Rounce•Mark Fahnestock
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
•2026/2/4
•Vol.9 No.1 p.950
Glaciers in Alaska contribute greatly to sea-level rise and are losing mass at a faster rate than any other region. Yet, our understanding of ongoing changes and ability to model them are hindered by a lack of observations, particularly at high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we leverage Sentinel-1...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesNatural hazards
10.1038/S41612-026-01321-Y
ISSN:2397-3722
A skillful hybrid framework for seamless subseasonal PM2.5 prediction over North China
Yiwei Li•Fang Zhou•Zhicong Yin•Dapeng Zhang•Yanyan Huang等 6 人
Npj Clean Air
2026
•2026/4/17
•Vol.2 No.1 p.240
Severe PM2.5 pollution in North China persists despite substantial emission controls, underscoring the pivotal role of subseasonal meteorology and the urgent need for skillful prediction. Here, we propose a novel hybrid dynamical-statistical framework by integrating circulation evolution and overlap...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S44407-026-00074-5
ISSN:3059-2240
Deforestation-induced warming over tropical mountain regions regulated by elevation
Zhenzhong Zeng•Dashan Wang•Long Yang•Jie Wu•Alan D. Ziegler等 30 人
Nature Geoscience
2020
•2020/12/14
•Vol.14 No.1 p.23-29
Agriculture is expanding in tropical mountainous areas, yet its climatic effect is poorly understood. Here, we investigate how elevation regulates the biophysical climate impacts of deforestation over tropical mountainous areas by integrating satellite-observed forest cover changes into a high-resol...
BiogeochemistryClimate sciencesEnvironmental sciencesTropical ecology
10.1038/S41561-020-00666-0
ISSN:1752-0894
Unraveling overestimated exposure risks through hourly ozone retrievals from next-generation geostationary satellites
Siwei Li•Ge Song•Jia Xing•Jiaxin Dong•Maolin Zhang等 10 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/9
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-12
Accurate ground-level ozone (O3) estimation is crucial for assessing health impacts and designing control strategies. Traditional polar-orbit satellites provide limited, one-time measurements, missing O3’s diurnal variability. Here, we utilize a next-generation geostationary satellite with ultraviol...
Environmental impactEnvironmental monitoring
10.1038/S41467-025-58652-2
ISSN:2041-1723
Synergistic neural forecasting of air pollution with stochastic sampling
Yohan Abeysinghe•Muhammad Akhtar Munir•Sanoojan Baliah•Ron Sarafian•Fahad Shahbaz Khan等 7 人
Npj Clean Air
2026
•2026/6/1
•Vol.2 No.1 p.360
Air pollution remains a leading global health and environmental risk, particularly in regions vulnerable to episodic air pollution spikes due to wildfires, urban haze and dust storms. Accurate forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentrations is essential to enable timely public health warnings ...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S44407-026-00076-3
ISSN:3059-2240
The overlooked health impacts of extreme rainfall exposure in 30 East Asian cities
Cheng He•Ho Kim•Masahiro Hashizume•Whanhee Lee•Yasushi Honda等 12 人
Nature Sustainability
2024
•2024/2/16
•00 p.1-9
Extreme rainfall, intensified by climate change, elevates the risk of infectious diseases. The connection between extreme rainfall and common respiratory diseases remains unclear. Here we used a probabilistic approach to detect extreme rainfall events with different return periods for 30 cities acro...
Environmental healthRisk factors
10.1038/S41893-024-01294-X
ISSN:2398-9629
Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change
Chaloner Thomas M.•Gurr Sarah J.•Bebber Daniel P.
Nature Climate Change
2021
•2021/8/5
•Vol.11 No.8 p.710-715
Global food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change-induced losses to production can occur directly or indirectly, including via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poo...
AgroecologyAgricultureClimate-change ecologyInvasive species
10.1038/S41558-021-01104-8
ISSN:1758-678X
Machine learning reveals climate forcing from aerosols is dominated by increased cloud cover
Chen Ying•Haywood Jim•Wang Yu•Malavelle Florent•Jordan George等 15 人
Nature Geoscience
2022
•2022/8/1
•Vol.15 No.8 p.609-614
Aerosol–cloud interactions have a potentially large impact on climate but are poorly quantified and thus contribute a substantial and long-standing uncertainty in climate projections. The impacts derived from climate models are poorly constrained by observations because retrieving robust large-scale...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41561-022-00991-6
ISSN:1752-0894
Polar regions are critical in achieving global sustainable development goals
Xin Li•Huadong Guo•Guodong Cheng•Xiaoyu Song•Youhua Ran等 16 人
Nature Communications
2025
•2025/4/24
•Vol.16 No.1 p.1-11
As important components of global commons, environmental changes in polar regions are crucial to the local and global sustainability. However, they have received little attention in the current framework of sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study examines the impacts of climate change in po...
Climate-change adaptationSustainability
10.1038/S41467-025-59178-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt
Armineh Barkhordarian•David M. Nielsen•Dirk Olonscheck•Johanna Baehr
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/2/13
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Since 2007, unprecedented marine heatwave events are occurring over the Arctic Ocean. Here we identify the fraction of the likelihood of Arctic marine heatwaves magnitude that is attributable to greenhouse gas forcing. Results reveal that Arctic marine heatwaves are primarily triggered by an abrupt ...
AttributionOcean sciences
10.1038/S43247-024-01215-Y
ISSN:2662-4435
Moist heatwaves intensified by entrainment of dry air that limits deep convection
Suqin Q. Duan•Fiaz Ahmed•J. David Neelin
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/7/25
•00 p.1-8
Moist heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics pose substantial risks to society, yet the dynamics governing their intensity are not fully understood. The onset of deep convection arising from hot, moist near-surface air has been thought to limit the magnitude of moist heatwaves. Here we use reanalys...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01498-Y
ISSN:1752-0894
Smart renewable electricity portfolios in West Africa
Sebastian Sterl•Inne Vanderkelen•Celray James Chawanda•Daniel Russo•Robert J. Brecha等 8 人
Nature Sustainability
2020
•2020/5/25
•Vol.3 No.9 p.710-719
The worldwide growth of variable renewable power sources necessitates power system flexibility to safeguard the reliability of electricity supply. Yet today, flexibility is mostly delivered by fossil fuel power plants. Hydropower can be a renewable alternative source of flexibility, but only if oper...
Climate sciencesEnergy science and technologyEngineeringEnvironmental sciencesHydrology
10.1038/S41893-020-0539-0
ISSN:2398-9629
Accurate initial field estimation for weather forecasting with a variational constrained neural network
Wuxin Wang•Jinrong Zhang•Qingguo Su•Xingyu Chai•Jingze Lu等 8 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/9/30
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-17
Weather forecasting is crucial for scientific research and society. Recently, deep learning (DL) methods have achieved significant advancements in medium-range weather forecasting. However, they generally depend on the initial fields generated by the computationally expensive four-dimensional variat...
Atmospheric scienceClimate sciencesMathematics and computing
10.1038/S41612-024-00776-1
ISSN:2397-3722