CMIP6 Search
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Germany, Hamburg
the Department of Energy '
数据描述
The dataset is part of the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) initiative, a significant resource for climate science research. It provides data and tools to manage large-scale climate model outputs, supporting reproducibility, accessibility, and efficient sharing among researchers worldwide. The system offers functionalities like file management, version control, and download options, aiding in the analysis of future climate scenarios through standardized simulations.
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相关论文
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In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens1–3. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a strengthening of monsoon circulation4–6, posing a challenge to understanding the response o...
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2024
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10.1038/S41467-024-54946-Z
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2024
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2024
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2024
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2024
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We evaluate trends in terrestrial water storage over 1950–2100 in CMIP6 climate models against a new global reanalysis from assimilating GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite observations into a hydrological model. To account for different timescales in our analysis, we select regions in which the influence ...
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Extreme precipitation intensifies under global warming, yet its impact on sea-air CO2 flux (FCO2) remains underexplored. Here we show that the maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) exerts a notable influence on FCO2 in the South Pacific Ocean and South Atlantic Ocean during 1990–2023. An increase in ...
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Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback
Jenny Bjordal•Trude Storelvmo•Kari Alterskjær•Tim Carlsen
Nature Geoscience
2020
•2020/10/26
•Vol.13 No.11 p.718-721
The equilibrium climate sensitivity of Earth is defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase that follows a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For decades, global climate models have predicted it as between approximately 2 and 4.5 °C. However, a large subset of models participati...
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10.1038/S41561-020-00649-1
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Widespread enhancement of ecosystem carbon fluxes during post moisture pulse
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2026
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Rainfall pulses generate rapid increases and subsequent declines in soil moisture (SM), yet global ecosystem responses during SM dry-downs remain poorly quantified. Using 6502 soil dry-down events identified from global eddy-covariance observations, we compared carbon fluxes during dry-downs (treatm...
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10.1038/S43247-026-03191-X
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Pacific and Atlantic teleconnections reduce uncertainty in multidecadal projections of the South American Summer Monsoon
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2026
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10.1038/S41612-026-01373-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Decreased cloud cover partially offsets the cooling effects of surface albedo change due to deforestation
Hao Luo•Johannes Quaas•Yong Han
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/8/26
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-8
Biophysical processes of forests affect climate through the regulation of surface water and heat fluxes, which leads to further effects through the adjustment of clouds and water cycles. These indirect biophysical effects of forests on clouds and their radiative forcing are poorly understood but hig...
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Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability
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Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/17
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-14
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Atmospheric scienceClimate sciencesOcean sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01027-7
ISSN:2397-3722
Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes
Almudena García-García•Francisco José Cuesta-Valero•Diego G. Miralles•Miguel D. Mahecha•Johannes Quaas等 8 人
Nature Climate Change
2023
•2023/9/21
•00 p.1-5
Quantifying changes in hot temperature extremes is key for developing adaptation strategies. Changes in hot extremes are often determined on the basis of air temperatures; however, hydrology and many biogeochemical processes are more sensitive to soil temperature. Here we show that soil hot extremes...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41558-023-01812-3
ISSN:1758-678X
Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change
Gründemann Gaby Joanne•van de Giesen Nick•Brunner Lukas•van der Ent Ruud
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/10/10
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-9
Future rainfall extremes are projected to increase with global warming according to theory and climate models, but common (annual) and rare (decennial or centennial) extremes could be affected differently. Here, using 25 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 driven by a range...
Climate changeHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-022-00558-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways
Carley E. Iles•Bjørn H. Samset•Marit Sandstad•Nina Schuhen•Laura J. Wilcox等 6 人
Nature Geoscience
2024
•2024/9/9
•00 p.1-6
Global warming is rapidly shifting climate conditions away from what societies and ecosystems are adapted to. While the magnitude of changes in mean and extreme climate are broadly studied, regional rates of change, a key driver of climate risk, have received less attention. Here we show, using larg...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41561-024-01511-4
ISSN:1752-0894
Attributing the recent weakening of the South Asian subtropical westerlies
Pankaj Upadhyaya•Saroj K. Mishra•John T. Fasullo•In-Sik Kang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/11/19
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Over the last four decades (1980–2020), the summer westerlies that prevail in South Asia along the monsoon trough region have weakened by about 25% based on multiple reanalysis datasets. Trends in a range of climate model simulations suggest that the weakening is driven by multiple anthropogenic for...
AttributionClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S41612-024-00777-0
ISSN:2397-3722
Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits
Fu Zheng•Ciais Philippe•Prentice I. Colin•Gentine Pierre•Makowski David等 11 人
Nature Communications
2022
•2022/2/21
•Vol.13 No.1 p.1-10
Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global ed...
Carbon cycleEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41467-022-28652-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Unraveling the roles of jet streams on the unprecedented hot July in Western Europe in 2022
Xinhui Li•Jiayu Zheng•Chunzai Wang•Xiayan Lin•Zhixiong Yao
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/12/24
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-11
Western Europe experienced an unprecedentedly hot July in 2022, which significantly impacted ecosystems and society. Our observational and numerical modeling study reveals that this event was influenced by anomalous North Atlantic and Eurasian jet streams. The northeastward shift of the North Atlant...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00880-2
ISSN:2397-3722
Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario
Chao Liu•Soon-Il An•Zixiang Yan•Soong-Ki Kim•Seungmok Paik
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/12/19
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-16
El Niño-Southern Oscillation-induced tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies have global impacts and will intensify under greenhouse warming, but the potential for mitigating these changes is less understood. Here, we identify distinct hysteresis features in the precipitation-sea surface temperatur...
Atmospheric dynamicsPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S43247-024-01958-8
ISSN:2662-4435
Intensified annual cycle of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature regulates Pacific cooling
Jianxiang Xu•Tomoki Tozuka•Jing-Jia Luo
Communications Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/1/5
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1440
Recent counterintuitive cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific, with prolonged impacts on global climate, has perplexed the climate community regarding its underlying causes. While previous studies have proposed many potential explanations, the present study identifies a distinct and previously und...
Climate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impacts
10.1038/S43247-025-03168-2
ISSN:2662-4435
Summer 2024 in northern Fennoscandia was very likely the warmest in 2000 years
Mika Rantanen•Samuli Helama•Jouni Räisänen•Hilppa Gregow
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/4/26
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-11
Summer 2024 was exceptionally warm in northern Fennoscandia, with June-August mean temperatures at several long-term weather stations surpassing the long-standing record set in 1937. In this region, summer mean temperatures have been reconstructed from tree-ring proxies, which provide annually resol...
Climate changeClimate sciencesPalaeoclimate
10.1038/S41612-025-01046-4
ISSN:2397-3722
Recent changes in spatiotemporal patterns of heat extremes in South Asia
Abhirup Banerjee•Shraddha Gupta•Pranava Priyanshu•Ankan Kar•Ruby Saha等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/8/5
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-15
The likelihood of intense heatwaves in South Asia is increasing due to climate change, highlighting the need to understand their evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Using a complex network-based approach, we analyze synchronous extreme heat events across South and West Asia over three 30-year periods:...
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-01146-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate
Shuyu Wang•Xiaohui Ma•Shenghui Zhou•Lixin Wu•Hong Wang等 10 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/6/3
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-9
Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future proje...
HydrologyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-023-38980-X
ISSN:2041-1723
Drivers and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping
Wen Yi•Huan Liu•Li Peng•Ziluo Liu•Zhenyu Luo等 16 人
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2026
•2026/5/26
•00 p.1-16
Sea ice retreat is opening up Arctic shipping routes, reducing transit times and enhancing access to regions with valuable resources. However, increased shipping has a negative impact on the Arctic environment. In this Review, we discuss the drivers and impacts of Arctic shipping and outline opportu...
Climate sciencesEnvironmental impact
10.1038/S43017-026-00790-2
ISSN:2662-138X
An intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode of the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon
Yu Liang•Shang-Ping Xie•Honghai Zhang
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/8
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Deep convection in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is vital in driving global atmospheric overturning circulations. Year-to-year variations in the strength and location of warm pool precipitation can lead to significant local and downstream hydroclimatic impacts, including floods and droughts. While the ...
Atmospheric dynamicsHydrologyPhysical oceanography
10.1038/S41612-024-00792-1
ISSN:2397-3722
The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming
Fuhai Luo•Fei Xie•Tianjun Zhou•Yingli Niu•Yan Xia等 10 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/1/29
•Vol.17 No.1 p.21380
The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a key modulator of interannual variability in global weather and climate. Over recent decades, the amplitude of the lower-stratospheric QBO has weakened, and in recent years the QBO has experienced unprecedented disruptions. However, the longer-t...
Atmospheric dynamicsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41467-026-68922-2
ISSN:2041-1723
CMIP6 models project a shrinking precipitation area
Andreas Dobler•Rasmus E. Benestad•Cristian Lussana•Oskar Landgren
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/10/8
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-8
Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 pro...
Atmospheric dynamicsClimate and Earth system modellingClimate-change impactsProjection and prediction
10.1038/S41612-024-00794-Z
ISSN:2397-3722
The jump in global temperatures in September 2023 is extremely unlikely due to internal climate variability alone
Mika Rantanen•Ari Laaksonen
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2024
•2024/2/1
•Vol.7 No.1 p.1-4
September 2023 was the warmest September on record globally by a record margin of 0.5 °C. Here we show that such a record-breaking margin is an extremely rare event in the latest generation of climate models, making it highly unlikely (p ~ 1%) that internal climate variability combined with the stea...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S41612-024-00582-9
ISSN:2397-3722
Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress
Zheng Fu•Philippe Ciais•Jean-Pierre Wigneron•Pierre Gentine•Andrew F. Feldman等 22 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/6/6
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-13
During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water...
BiogeographyCarbon cycleEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-49244-7
ISSN:2041-1723
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing
In-Hong Park•Sang-Wook Yeh•Seung-Ki Min•Soon-Il An•Shang-Ping Xie等 6 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/11/5
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-11
Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains con...
Atmospheric scienceClimate change
10.1038/S43247-024-01751-7
ISSN:2662-4435
Anthropogenic sulfate-climate interactions suppress dust activity over East Asia
Xiaoning Xie•Gunnar Myhre•Huizheng Che•Feng Wu•Jianing Guo等 9 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/2/27
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-8
Observational evidences indicate a significant decline in dust storm frequencies over the East Asian arid-semiarid region during recent decades, which creates a strong contrast with a great increase in sulfate emissions over monsoonal Asia. However, the causes for decline of dust activities are stil...
Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-025-02147-X
ISSN:2662-4435
Higher optimal temperature for vegetation transpiration than for photosynthesis
Haoyu Xia•Fangyue Zhang•Philippe Ciais•Paul C. Stoy•Josep Peñuelas等 15 人
Nature Plants
2026
•2026/4/15
•00 p.1-16
Plants assimilate carbon through photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) while losing water via transpiration (Trans), with both processes responding nonlinearly to temperature. Although the air temperature optimum of GPP ( $${T}_{\mathrm{opt}}^{\mathrm{GPP}}$$ ) is well studied, the therma...
BiogeographyClimate-change ecologyEcophysiologyEcosystem ecology
10.1038/S41477-026-02263-2
ISSN:2055-0278
Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic
José C. Fernández-Alvarez•Albenis Pérez-Alarcón•Jorge Eiras-Barca•Stefan Rahimi•Raquel Nieto等 6 人
Nature Communications
2023
•2023/10/14
•Vol.14 No.1 p.1-12
Global warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are expected to alter the hydrological cycle, including the intensity and position of moisture sources. This study presents predicted changes for the middle and end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for two impor...
HydrologyPhysical sciences
10.1038/S41467-023-41915-1
ISSN:2041-1723
Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean
Marylou Athanase•Antonio Sánchez-Benítez•Helge F. Goessling•Felix Pithan•Thomas Jung
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/1/26
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-12
Marine heatwaves are expected to become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting in a warming world. However, it remains unclear whether feedback processes could amplify or dampen extreme ocean temperatures. Here we impose the observed atmospheric flow in coupled climate simulations to determine h...
AttributionClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-024-01212-1
ISSN:2662-4435
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
Rantanen Mika•Karpechko Alexey Yu.•Lipponen Antti•Nordling Kalle•Hyvärinen Otto等 8 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2022
•2022/8/11
•Vol.3 No.1 p.1-10
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using s...
Climate changeEnvironmental sciences
10.1038/S43247-022-00498-3
ISSN:2662-4435
Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered
Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei•Piet Termonia•Hossein Tabari
Communications Earth & Environment
2024
•2024/4/24
•Vol.5 No.1 p.1-10
The intensification of compound hot-dry events due to climate change is a pressing concern, underscoring the need for precise analysis. However, the impact of different dry indicators on projections of these events has not been quantitatively evaluated, nor has its importance been compared with othe...
Climate-change impactsHydrologyNatural hazards
10.1038/S43247-024-01352-4
ISSN:2662-4435
Hydroclimate shapes photosynthetic sensitivity to cloud cover across global terrestrial ecosystems
Hao Luo•Ana Bastos•Markus Reichstein•Gregory Duveiller•Jan Kretzschmar等 6 人
Nature Communications
2026
•2026/2/12
•Vol.17 No.1 p.16460
Vegetation photosynthesis primarily depends on surface energy and water availability, both of which are simultaneously regulated by clouds through radiation and precipitation, respectively. However, the net impact of cloud-induced changes in surface solar radiation and precipitation on photosynthesi...
Atmospheric scienceBiogeochemistryClimate change
10.1038/S41467-026-69480-3
ISSN:2041-1723
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca•Mark John Costello•Marta Coll•Alexander Jüterbock•Henning Reiss等 6 人
Nature Communications
2024
•2024/7/5
•Vol.15 No.1 p.1-14
Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water s...
BiodiversityBiogeographyBoreal ecology
10.1038/S41467-024-49911-9
ISSN:2041-1723
Increased multi-year La Niña since 1960s driven by internal climate variability
Shichu Liu•Lu Dong•Lixin Wu•Wenju Cai•Fengfei Song等 9 人
Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science
2025
•2025/3/24
•Vol.8 No.1 p.1-9
Multi-year La Niña (ML) has occurred more frequently since the 1960s, but whether and to what extent it is due to external forcing remains unknown. Here, using 15 large ensemble (LENS) experiments under the same external forcing with ~500 realizations, we find that external forcings contribute only ...
Atmospheric scienceClimate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S41612-025-00994-1
ISSN:2397-3722
Delayed formation of Arctic snow cover in response to wildland fires in a warming climate
Yamin Qing•Shuo Wang•Amir AghaKouchak•Pierre Gentine
Nature Climate Change
2025
•2025/9/23
•00 p.1-8
Wildland fires in seasonally snow-covered areas can have lasting effects on both the snowpack and carbon stocks. Here, using long-term satellite data, we show that from 1982 to 2018, the burned area in the Arctic has significantly increased, while the duration of snow cover has significantly decreas...
Climate-change impactsFire ecology
10.1038/S41558-025-02443-6
ISSN:1758-678X
Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change
Efrén López-Blanco•Elmer Topp-Jørgensen•Torben R. Christensen•Morten Rasch•Henrik Skov等 9 人
Nature Climate Change
2024
•2024/1/22
•00 p.1-4
The Russian invasion of Ukraine hampers the ability to adequately describe conditions across the Arctic, thus biasing the view on Arctic change. Here we benchmark the pan-Arctic representativeness of the largest high-latitude research station network, INTERACT, with or without Russian stations. Excl...
BiogeochemistryClimate changeClimate-change ecologyScientific community
10.1038/S41558-023-01903-1
ISSN:1758-678X
Future extreme precipitation may shift to colder seasons in northern mid- and high latitudes
Donghe Zhu•Stephan Pfahl•Reto Knutti•Erich M. Fischer
Communications Earth & Environment
2025
•2025/8/13
•Vol.6 No.1 p.1-9
Despite high confidence in the intensification of the hydrological cycle due to global warming, the future spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation remain uncertain. Here we explore how climate change influences the seasonal timing of extreme precipitation events, using daily output from the...
Climate changeClimate sciences
10.1038/S43247-025-02651-0
ISSN:2662-4435
Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming
Hu Yang•Gerrit Lohmann•Christian Stepanek•Qiang Wang•Rui Xin Huang等 13 人
Communications Earth & Environment
2023
•2023/5/24
•Vol.4 No.1 p.1-10
Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming patte...
PalaeoceanographyPhysical oceanographyProjection and prediction
10.1038/S43247-023-00839-W
ISSN:2662-4435